风险管理与金融机构课件Ch15.ppt
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风险管理与金融机构课件Ch15.ppt
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RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009CreditRiskLossesandCreditVaRChapter151RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009CreditRiskinDerivativesTransactions(page278)ThreecaseslContractalwaysanassetlContractalwaysaliabilitylContractcanbeanassetoraliability2RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009GeneralResultlAssumethatdefaultprobabilityisindependentofthevalueofthederivativelDefinet1,t2,tn:
timeswhendefaultcanoccurqi:
defaultprobabilityattimeti.fi:
ThevalueofthecontractattimetiR:
Recoveryrate3RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009GeneralResultcontinuedlTheexpectedlossfromdefaultsattimetiisqi(1-R)Emax(fi,0).lDefiningui=qi(1-R)andviasthevalueofaderivativethatprovidesapayoffofmax(fi,0)attimeti,thePVofthecostofdefaultsis4RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009ApplicationslIfcontractisalwaysanassetsothatfi0thenvi=f0andthecostofdefaultsisf0timesthetotaldefaultprobability,times1RlIfcontractisalwaysaliabilitythenvi=0andthecostofdefaultsiszerolInothercaseswemustvaluethederivativemax(fi,0)foreachvalueofi5UsingBondYieldsforInstrumentsintheFirstCategoryAllinstrumentsthatpromisea(non-negative)payoffattimeTshouldbereducedinpricebythesameamountfordefaultriskwheref0andf0*aretheno-defaultandactualvaluesoftheinstrument;B0andB0*aretheno-defaultandactualvaluesofazero-couponbondmaturingattimeT;yandy*aretheyieldsonthesezerocouponbondsRiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull20096Example15.1lA2-yearoptionhasaBlack-Scholesvalueof$3lAssumea2yearzerocouponbondissuedbythecompanyhasayieldof1.5%greaterthantheriskfreeratelValueofoptionis3e-0.0152=2.91RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull20097Example15.2lAbankentersintoa2-yearforwardcontracttobuy1millionouncesofgoldfor$800perouncelvi=exp(-riti)Emax(Fi-800,0)whereFiistheforwardpriceattimetiandriistheriskfreerateforamaturityoftilThiscanbecalculatedusingstandardoptionpricingtheoryRiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull20098RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009ExpectedExposureonPairofOffsettingInterestRateSwapsandaPairofOffsettingCurrencySwaps(Figure15.2,page317-8)ExposureMaturityCurrencyswapsInterestRateSwaps9RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009InterestRatevsCurrencySwapslTheuisarethesameforbothlThevisforaninterestrateswapareonaveragemuchlessthanthevisforacurrencyswaplTheexpectedcostofdefaultsonacurrencyswapisthereforegreater.10RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009Two-SidedDefaultRisk(page318)Intheoryacompanyshouldincreasethevalueofadealtoallowforthechancethatitwillitselfdefaultaswellasreducingthevalueofthedealtoallowforthechancethatthecounterpartywilldefault11RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009CreditRiskMitigation(page319-21)lNettinglCollateralizationlDowngradetriggers12RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009NettinglWereplacefibyinthedefinitionofvitocalculatetheexpectedcostofdefaultsbyacounterpartywherejcountsthecontractsoutstandingwiththecounterpartylTheincrementaleffectofanewdealontheexposuretoacounterpartycanbenegativelBankssometimesrunlargeMonteCarlosimulationsovertheweekendandstorethevalueofeachcounterpartysportfolioforeachtrialatfuturetimeslTocalculatetheincrementaleffectofanewtransactiononexpectedexposureitisthenonlynecessarytosimulatethattransaction13RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009CollateralizationlContractsaremarkedtomarketsperiodically(e.g.everyday)lIftotalvalueofcontractsPartyAhaswithpartyBisaboveaspecifiedthresholdlevelitcanaskPartyBtopostcollateralequaltotheexcessofthevalueoverthethresholdlevellAfterthatcollateralcanbewithdrawnormustbeincreasedbyPartyBdependingonwhethervalueofcontractstoPartyAdecreasesorincreases14RiskManagementandFinancialInstitutions2e,Chapter15,CopyrightJohnC.Hull2009DowngradeTriggerslAdowngradetriggerisaclausestatingthatacontractcanbeclosedoutbyPartyAwhenthecreditratingoftheotherside,PartyB,fallsbelowacertainlevellInpracticePartyAwillonlycloseoutcontractsthathaveanegativevalue
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