Simulation game group report.docx
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Simulation game group report.docx
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Simulationgamegroupreport
DeliveryPerformanceGroupReport
Content
1.Introduction
1.1CaseInformation
OurgrouparehiredbytheboardofdirectorsofMobiléInctogainthesuitableshareholderreturnaswellastocompetewithotherreorganizedcompanies.(Besides,)删掉了因为下面还有个besidesBlackboxoperationshavemadeourcompanyandotherreorganizedcompaniesatthesamefinancialandoperationalconditions.Andallofthesecompanieswerecompetinginthreemainmarkets:
America,EuropeandAsia.BesidesthesecompaniesincludingtheMobiléIncallhaveenoughcashflowtosupporttheirfuturedevelopment.
1.2Thesisstatement
Thissimulationgamewentthrough5trialroundsand8officialroundstoanalyseimpactofthedevelopmentoftechnologyandthecostofoperationontheprofitandcashflowofthecompany.Atmeantime,thereasonsoftheimplementofdifferentstrategiesduringthedifferentstagethroughoutthegamewillalsobestudiedinthisreport.Inthegame,werepresentedthePinkteamintheUniverse5.Bothinthetrialgameandofficialgame,ourteamgainedthehighestshareholderreturn.Forexample,bytheendoftheofficialgame,wegainedthehighestshareholderreturn(12.33%)whiletheteamwhorankedsecondgainedonly9.66%.
1.3Structureofthereport
Inthenextpart,therewillbeabriefillustrationofthebackgroundwhichwillfollowbyanexpositionoftheoriginalplannedstrategyandthestrategyweactuallyachieved.Thesectionfollowingwillbeanexplanationofwhyachangehappenedinfouraspects:
competitors’aspect;financialaspect;marketaspectandourkeydecisions.Furthermore,thethirdpartisabouttheanalysisofpositioningoftheMobiléIncusing4Psframework(Brassingtonetal,2013).Lastbutnotleast,afutureplanandacriticalreviewwillbeillustratedinthelasttwoparts.
2.StrategyAnalysis
2.1Background
Inthissimulationgame,therewere8teamscompetinginoneuniverse.Accordingtoourobservationofthetrialandtheofficialrounds,threemaintypesofcompetitorcanbeseen:
universal-developmentorientation(representedbyTeamGreen);high-technologyorientation(representedbyTeamOchre)andlow-profitorientationwithlargenumberoffactories(representedbyTeamRed为了跟后面统一都改成了TeamXXX).
2.2MainTechniquesusedforDecisionMaking.
Weappliedthefishbonediagram,alsocalledIshikawaDiagram,(showsinFigure1)toourdecisionmakingprocesswhichisaratherdirectandintuitivewaytomaketheprocedureeasyandcleartobeunderstood(QuentinandSkrabec,2007).
Figure1:
FishboneDiagram(IshikawaDiagram).居中
Whatismore,ourdecisionmakingwastotallybasedonouraccuratecalculationanddetailedanalysis.Table2isanexampleofourcalculation.
Table2:
CalculationExample.
Besides,theBCGGrowth-ShareMatrixwhichwascreatedbyBruceHenderson(Wikipedia,n.d.)wasalsousedbyustoanalysethemarketperformanceofafirmoraproductbasedonthemarketshareandmarketgrowthrate(SeeFigure3).
Figure3.额。
。
缺了这个图的名字
Lastbutnotleast,wealsofollowedthe“Ruleofthreeorfour”whichindicatedthatinanormalandhealthymarket,thereshouldbenomorethanthreemajorcompetitorsandthebiggestoneholdsnomorethanfourtimesofthetotalmarketsharethanthesmallestone(FinancialTimes,2013).
2.3OverallStrategyandStrategyAdjustment
Beforetheofficialrunstarted,wehadmadeourdecisionforthelong-termstrategyaccordingtotheexperienceofthetrialrun.Wedecidednottofocusonthemaximizationoftheprofit,butonthereturnedearningasthemaximizationoftheTotalShareholderReturnwasthedeterminantofwhethertheteam’sperformancewasgoodorbad.
Atbeginning,wedecidedtodevelopTech2,Tech3andTech4inthelaterperiodofthewhole8rounds.AstherewasnomarketforTech3andTech4intheearlierperiod,wedecidedtostartwithTech1andTech2toopenthemarket.Inthemediumperiod,wewoulddevelopTech1,Tech2andTech3asatransition.AstimepassbywewouldgiveupdevelopingTech1andfocusonTech2,Tech3andTech4orjustTech3orTech4.Howeverduetothestrategychosenbyothercompetitorsandthemistakeswemade(ourselves可以删掉)inthefirstfewrounds,wechangedourstrategytimely.WegaveupTech4andonlyfocusedonTech2and3.Thespecificreasonsbehindthiscanbeillustratedinthefollowingaspects:
2.3.1Competitors
InthisreportwewillonlyanalysetheperformanceofTeamOchreandTeamGreen,sincetheyappliedarathermoderatamentestrategywhichwasnotabletoinfluenceourdecisionsandotherteamsareconsideredtobenotcapableenoughtobeourcompetitor.
TeamOchrehadputalotofmoneyintoTech4,thenthroughdevelopingandbuying,theyalreadyreached7featuresatRound4.Furthermoretheydidwellincost-controlthroughproducingTech4bythemselves.NeverthelesswewerestillthinkingwhethertodevelopTech3atRound4.Asaresult,wedecidedtogiveupTech4asTeamOchrewassuchastrongcompetitorinthefieldofTech4.IntermsofTech3,astherewasnoteamdecidedtoputalargeamountofmoneyinTech3,westillconsideredtohaveachanceinthedevelopmentofTech3.Otherwise,wewouldnothaveacashcow(seeFigure3)inthenextfewroundsasthemarketshareofTech1andTech2wasbecomingsmallerandtheirprofitspacewouldbelimitedinthelaterperiod.AsforTech2,wehadadvantagesintermsoftheproductioncost,fortherewasnocompetitorsproducelargescaleofTech2themselvesexceptforTeamGreenwhoonlyproducedasmallnumberofTech2.
2.3.2Finance
Intermsoffinance,ifwedidnothaveenoughcashtodealwiththelossesandconstructionfeesofnewplants,itwouldautomaticallyaskaloanfromshort-termdebtwithhighinterestrate.Inordertoavoidthissituation,itisimportantforourteamtopredictthefuturecashflowtocontrolthenumberofcash.
2.3.2.1Theprincipleofforecast
Theusingofcashhasfourpurposes.Thefirstpurposeistomakeuplosses.Nextpurposeittodealwithconstructionfeesofnewplants.Thethirdpurposeistosharebuybacksandthelastpurposeittopaythedividendpayment.Inordertomaximizetheretainedearnings,wetriedtoavoidlossesineveryround.Besides,atthebeginningrounds,becauseweneededalargebudgettobuildnewplantsanditwasnotasuitableperiodtosharebuybacksandusethedividendpayment.Thus,themainspendingofourteamwastheconstructionfees.
Accordingtothegamerules,newplantswouldbeavailablewitha2rounddelay.In other words,weneededtoforecastthenumberofnewplantsintheroundafternext,thenwecouldgettheaccuracybudgetofnetplantsandtocontrolthecash.Inthisway,wecouldsavemoneybecauseofthedepreciationandhighefficientcapacityusage.Weusedasystemdesignedbyustoforecastthenumberofnewplantsbasedonourmarketshare(SeeTable2).Thistablecouldhelpustoexecutethenewplantplansmorescientificallyandreasonably.
2.3.2.2Methodsoffinancialmanagement
Inthisgame,thecashconsistofprofitsandfinancing.Theprofitsbelongtouncontrollable factor,whilefinancingbelongstocontrollable factor.Asaresult,wefocusedonthefinancing.Andtherearetwowaystofinancing:
oneisshareissue,anotheristoaskaloanfromlong-termdebt.
Atthebeginningrounds,wethoughtitwouldbebettertousethelong-termdebttofinancing.Because,wethoughtwecouldmakeprofitsatthebeginningrounds.Anditcouldincreaseourissueprice.Inouropinion,theissuepricewasimportant,forhigherpriceofissuepricecouldhelpustoraisemorecashwiththesamenumberofshares.Comparedwithshareissue,long-termdebtwouldbesuitableforthebeginningrounds.However,duetothelossesatthebeginningrounds,ourissuepricewasdecreasing.Thus,atthefourthrounds,weissued10,000sharestofinancing.Thereasonwasthattheratioofequityandliabilitieswashighduetothelargenumberoflong-termdebt,anditwouldincreasetheinterestrateoflong-termdebt.Asaresult,althoughtheissuepricewasnotunsatisfactory,weneededtorecovertheratioofequityandliabilitiesandneededalargecashtobuildnewplants.Atthelastrounds,becausewehadnoplanstobuildnewplantsandwehadlotsofcashduetotheprofits,webegantorepaythelong-termdebt,tosharebuybacksandtousethedividendpaymentinordertoincreasetheratioofcumulativetotalshareholderreturn.
2.3.3Marketing
AccordingtoTeamOchre’sstrategy,itcanbefoundthattheyinvestedTech4inthefirstround,thusthemarketdemandofTech4hasalreadyappearedinround2.However,wefoundthatthemarketgrowthrateofTech4islowerthanthatofTech3whichturnedupinround3.Inotherwords,althoughthemarketdemandofTech4hasbegunincreasing,wethoughtitstillcannottaketheplaceofTech3whichwouldbe“thecashcow”untilround6orround7.BecausethemarketgrowthrateofTech3washigherandthecostwasmuchlowercomparedwiththatofTech4.And,thisgameonlyhas8rounds,eventhoughwecouldnotgetthehighestprofitinthelastround,butwecouldstillachieveadesiredcumulativetotalshareholderreturn.Therefore,wechangedourlaterstrategyaccordingtotheprofitspaceofdifferentTech.
2.3.4Keydecisions
2.3.4.1Tech1
TheTech1wasthecashcowatthebeginning.However,themarketshareofTech1wasdecreasingandmostofcompetitorscreatedthepricewarofTech1.Therefore,theprofitspaceofTech1waslimitedafterround3,thuswegaveitupinround4.
2.3.4.2Tech2
WefoundthatmostoftheteamswereusingoutsourcingtoproduceTech
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