英语考试备考阅读素材.docx
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英语考试备考阅读素材.docx
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英语考试备考阅读素材
2013MBA/MPA/MPACC英语阅读素材
(一)
ExpectationsthattheU.S.FederalReservewilllaunchanotherroundofbondbuyingthisweekarefuelingspeculationthatChinaalsomayeasepolicysoontoshoreupitscoolingeconomy.
ButanalystssayinvestorswhobetonquickactionfromthePeople'sBankofChinacouldbedisappointed,withonlyanoutsidechancethatitwouldfollowtheFed'sleadwithmoremonetaryeasingofitsownanytimesoon.
Thebestmarketscouldhopeforwouldbeafurthercutinbanks'reserverequirement(RRR),buttheoddsagainstsuchanimminentmoveorevenanoutrightinterestratecutarehighasarecentflare-upinpropertyandconsumerinflationovershadowstheurgencyofpolicyeasing.
Moreover,unlikethe2008/09globalcrisis,China'slabormarketisstillholdingupwellinpartduetowrenchingeconomicanddemographicshifts.
MarketssimplymayhaveunderestimatedBeijing'stoleranceoflowereconomicgrowththisyear,aslongastheslowdownisnottooabruptanddoesnotsparksocialunrestaheadofaonce-in-a-generationleadershipchangeexpectednextmonth.
TheChineseeconomywillslowfurtherinthethirdquarterbutregainsomemomentumlateintheyearastheimpactofearlierpolicyeasingfullykicksin,accordingtothelatestReuterspollofeconomistsreleasedonWednesday.
Still,evenifactivityreboundsmodestlyinthefourthquarter,itwoulddragfull-yeareconomicgrowthtobelow8percent,alevelneverseensince1999.
INFLATIONINFOCUS
Thecentralbankneedstotreadcarefullyamidsignsthatitsearlierpolicyeasinghasfannedpropertypricerisesthathavetriggeredpublicanxiety.
That'sprobablywhythePBOChassofardefiedexpectationsformoreaggressivemovessinceitslastinterestratecutinJuly.Instead,itisoptingtousereverserepostoinjectshort-termmoneyintothebankingsystem.
Housingprices,reboundedonamonthlybasisforthesecondstraightmonthsinJuly,followingeightconsecutivemonthsofdeclines,whileannualinflationacceleratedto2percentinAugustfroma30-monthlowof1.8percentinJuly.
"Thekeydilemmaforpolicymakersisthatinflationlookslikeitwillpickupearlierthanexpected,whileagrowthrecoverycominglaterthanexpected,"saidYipingHuang,chiefeconomistforemergingAsiaatBarclaysCapitalinHongKong.
"Ithinkthecentralbankwillprobablydoalittlebitmore(oneasing),dependingonhowtheeconomyisdoing.Realistically,theeconomyisgoingtoreboundbutcertainlynotgoingtoreboundsignificantly."
ThePBOCmaykeeppolicysettingsunchangeduntilthefourthquarter,whengrowthmaystabilizeorevenrecoverduetothelaggingimpactofpolicystimulus,accordingtogovernmenteconomistfamiliarwiththepolicy-makingprocess.
"Wedon'texpectanymajorchangesinmacro-economicpolicyintherunuptothe18thPartyCongressandthefundamentaltoneformonetarypolicyremainsprudent,"WangJun,senioreconomistattheChinaCentreforInternationalEconomicExchanges(CCIEE),aBeijing-basedthink-tank,toldReuters.
"Policymakershavedrawnalessonfromthepastanddon'twanttostimulateeconomicgrowthaggressively,"hesaid,referringtoconcernsthattoomuchstimuluscouldre-igniteinflationarypressures.
The18thCommunistPartyCongress,atwhichChina'snexttopleadersarelikelytobeunveiled,issetforOctober.
Underthebannerofpolicy'fine-tuning",thecentralbankcutinterestratestwiceinJuneandJulyandloweredbanks'reserverequirementratio(RRR)threetimessincelate2011,freeinganestimated1.2trillionyuanforboostingloans.
"Thechancesofpolicyeasingaresliminthenearterm,butwecannotruleoutacutinRRRorinterestrates,"saidYouHongye,aneconomistatChinaEssenceSecuritiesinBeijing.
SURPRISE?
PredictingthetimingofChina'smonetarypolicymovescanbeadauntingtaskgiventhecentralbankdoesnotholdregularpolicymeetingsasitscounterpartsintheWest,andithasatrackrecordofsurprisingthemarket.
One,albeitslimpossibilityisthattheChinamayopttocutbanks'reserverequirementsorratesaspartofagloballycoordinatedpolicyactiontoshoreuptheworldeconomy,especiallyiftheFederalReservelaunchesathirdroundofquantitativeeasing,orQE3afteratwo-daymeetingendingonThursdaytospurtheU.S.recovery.
China,theeurozoneandBritainloosenedmonetarypolicywithinlessthananhourofeachotherinearlyJuly,signalingagrowinglevelofalarmabouttheworldeconomy.China'smovewasasurprise,thoughsuggestionsofanycoordinatedactionwereplayeddown.
UnlikeitscounterpartsintheWest,thecentralbankstillhasplentyofroomtocutborrowingcosts.Thebenchmarkone-yearbanklendingrateisat6percentwhileone-yeardepositrateisat3percent,whiletheRRRlevelremainsat20percent--amongthehighestintheworld.
PengWensheng,chiefeconomistatCICC,stillexpectsoneortwocutsinRRRandanotherinterestratescutbyyear-end.
NOURGENCY
Aslongasthelabormarketholdsup,economistssayBeijingwillnotbeoverlyconcernedaboutagrowthslowdown.
Chinalaunchedamassivestimulusplanfouryearsagoafteratleast20millionChineselosttheirjobsinamatterofmonthsasworldtradegroundtoahalt.
Butthelabormarkethasprovedtobemoreresilientthistimeround,witheconomistspointingtoanexpandingservicesector,whichisdiversifyinggrowthawayfromthevulnerableexportsectorandcreatingplentyofnewjobs.
Whileexpectationsofcentralbankmoveshavebeendialedback,investors'focushasshiftedtoprospectsformorefiscalstimulusmeasures,whichalreadyaregainingpace.
Lastweek,theNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionannouncedthatithadapprovedover$150billionworthofinfrastructureprojects,butanalystsremainskepticalaboutanyquickimpactoneconomicgrowthastheprojectsstillneedtimetogetfundingandstartconstruction.
PremierWenJiabaosaidonTuesdaythatBeijingwasinfiscalsurplusofabout1trillionyuan($157.9billion)intheyeartodateandifneededthegovernmentcouldutilizea100billionyuanfiscalstabilityfundtoboostgrowth.
Wenalsosaidtheeconomyremainsontracktomeetthegovernment'sannual7.5percentgrowthtarget.
Chinastillcreated8.1millionnewjobsduringthefirstsevenmonthsof2012,up5percentfromayearearlier,headded.Thetallywas90percentoftheannualtargetof9millionsetbythegovernmentatthebeginningoftheyear.
"Theydon'treallyhaveanyurgency(inpolicyeasing)atthispoint.Theykeepthepowerdryandtheywillrespondifthingsgetworse,"saidTimCondon,headofAsiaresearchatINGinSingapore.
"Theeconomyisnotdoinggreat,butit'snotdoingthatbadly."
相关中文资料
市场预计美国联邦储备委员会(FED,美联储)本周将推出新一轮的购债计划.这令外界揣测中国或亦将很快放松政策来支撑其不断放缓的经济.
但分析师称,认为中国人民银行将很快行动的投资者可能要失望了,中国只有极小的可能性会追随美联储很快推出自身的宽松措施.
市场能够期待出现的最好结果也就是进一步下调存款准备金率(RRR),但立即采取该行动或者甚至直接下调利率的可能性很低,因近期房地产市场和通胀回升盖过放宽政策的紧迫性.
此外,与2008/09年的全球性危机不同,中国的就业市场仍保持平稳,这部分是由於经济和人口结构的改变.
市场可能是低估了中国政府今年对经济成长放慢的容忍度.只要经济放缓不是过於剧烈,而且不会在18大会议之前引发社会动荡,中国政府可以容忍.
据周三发布的最新路透调查显示,中国经济成长在第三季度将进一步放慢,但随着稍早宽松政策的效果开始完全显现,经济会在年底重获部分动能.
不过,即使第四季经济活动温和反弹,全年经济增速仍会跌落至8%以下,可能创下1999年来最低增速.
通胀仍是焦点
人行需要极其小心,因为有迹象显示稍早的政策宽松已经推动房地产价格上涨,并且引发公众的担忧.
这可能也是为什麽人行继上次7月降息以来,迟迟不肯采取更有力行动的原因.相反,人行选择通过逆回购向金融系统注入短期流动性.
楼市价格在八个月连降之後,7月连续第二个月环比上涨,8月年通胀率也由7月的30个月低点1.8%上升至2%.
"决策者面临的主要难题是,通胀反弹似乎比预期来得要早,而增长复苏又比预期来得晚,"巴克莱资本驻香港亚洲新兴市场首席经济学家黄一平表示.
"我认为央行可能将视经济状况,(在放宽政策方面)再稍微采取一些行动.实际上,经济将会出现反弹,但肯定幅度不会很大."
熟悉决策过程的政府经济学家表示,中国人民银行可能会维持政策不变直至第四季,届时由於刺激政策的延迟效应,经济增速可能企稳,或者甚至反弹.
"我们预计,18大召开前宏观经济政策将不会发生重大变化,而且货币政策的基调仍将为审慎,"中国国际经济交流中心(CCIEE)的资深经济学家王军对路透表示.
他说,"政策制定者们已从过去汲取教训,不希望强烈刺激经济增长."暗指当局担心过度刺激可能会重燃通胀压力.
中国共产党18大会议料将在10月举行,届时中国新一届领导层可能亮相.
在政策"微调"的名义下,中国人民银行於6月和7月两度下调利率.而且自2011年末以来三次调降银行存款准备金率,释放货币约1.2万亿(兆)元人民币.
"短期内放松政策的机率很小,但我们无法排除调降准备金率或基准利率的可能性,"中国安信证券的分析师尤宏业表示.
意外行动?
预测中国何时调整货币政策,可谓一项艰巨的任务,因中国央行不像西方国家央行那样定期召开政策会议,而且过去的行动曾屡次让市场大感意外.
一种很小的可能性,就是中国或选择下调银行存款储备金率或利率,以此作为全球政策协作支撑世界经济的部分努力,特别是若美联储周四结束两日会议时祭出第三轮量化宽松(QE3)来助推美国复苏.
7月初,中国、欧元区和英国的央行短短数小时内相继放松货币政策,暗示其对全球经济的警戒级别提高.中国的行动令人意外,但联合行动的意味被淡化.
和西方央行不同,中国央行仍拥有下调借款成本的充裕空间.中国一年期存贷款利率分别为3%和6%,存款准备金率维持在20%--为全球最高者之一.
中国国际金融有限公司(CICC)首席经济学家彭文生仍预计,年底前降准一到两次,并再降息一次.
不着急
分析师表示,只要就业市场保持稳定,北京当局就不会太担心经济成长放缓.
四年前全球贸易接近停滞,数月内近2,000万中国人失业,随後中国推出大规模刺激计划.
但这次就业市场更具韧性.分析师指出,服务业扩张,降低了经济成长对脆弱的出口行业的依赖,并创造了大量就业.
虽然对人行采取行动的预期降温,但投资者转而关注中国可能出台更多财政刺激措施.政府现已加紧准备财政刺激手段.
发改委上周宣布,已批准基建项目的规模超过1,500亿美元.但分析师仍怀疑这不会给经济成长带来任何立竿见影的效果,因为这些项目仍需要时间来筹集资金和开始建设.
国务院总理温家宝周二表示,政府到7月底收支相抵还有1万亿元余额,历年结余的还有1千多亿元稳定调节基金.
温家宝还表示,中国经济增速仍然保持在年初预定的7.5%目标区间之内.
他还表示,今年前七个月新创造就业岗位810万个,较上年同期增加5%.这个数字是政府年初所设900万目标的90%.
"当前他们真的不着急(放宽政策).他们时刻做好准备,如果情况恶化,他们会做出响应,"荷兰国际集团亚洲研究主管TimCondon说.
"经济表现不是太好,但也没有那麽差."
2013MBA/MPA/MPACC英语阅读素材
(二)
Forcommoditymarkets,thethirditerationofU.S.centralbankstimulusmayplaylikemanymoviesequels--afamiliarplot,apredictablerise,yetlesspotentthantheoriginal.
ButtheFederalReservehasintroducedanewtwistonitslatestroundofquantitativeeasing(QE),onethatisgivingsometradersevenmorereasontobecautiousratherthanoptimistic:
thistimearound,nobodyknowswhenitwillend.
ChairmanBenBernankepledgedonThursdaytoinjectasmuchmoneyasneededintotheU.S.economytorepairabatteredjobmarket,bybuying$40billionworthofbondsamonthuntilhegetsresults.UndertheQE2,itwasaflat$600billion.Ifunemploymentfalls,theFedmayjustreduceitsallocation.
"Itwasnotthefull-blown,giant,lump-suminitiativemarketparticipantshadenvisioned,"JasonSchenkeratPrestigeEconomicsinAustin,Texas."Thepositiveimpa
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