宏观经济学课件13.ppt
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宏观经济学课件13.ppt
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macroeconomicsfiftheditionN.GregoryMankiwPowerPointSlidesbyRonCronovichmacro2002WorthPublishers,allrightsreservedCHAPTERTHIRTEENAggregateSupplyCHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyLearningobjectivesthreemodelsofaggregatesupplyinwhichoutputdependspositivelyonthepricelevelintheshortruntheshort-runtradeoffbetweeninflationandunemploymentknownasthePhillipscurve1CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThreemodelsofaggregatesupply1.Thesticky-wagemodel2.Theimperfect-informationmodel3.Thesticky-pricemodelAllthreemodelsimply:
naturalrateofoutputapositiveparametertheexpectedpriceleveltheactualpricelevelagg.output2CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-wagemodelAssumesthatfirmsandworkersnegotiatecontractsandfixthenominalwagebeforetheyknowwhatthepricelevelwillturnouttobe.Thenominalwage,W,theysetistheproductofatargetrealwage,andtheexpectedpricelevel:
3CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-wagemodelIfitturnsoutthatthenunemploymentandoutputareattheirnaturalratesRealwageislessthanitstarget,sofirmshiremoreworkersandoutputrisesaboveitsnaturalrateRealwageexceedsitstarget,sofirmshirefewerworkersandoutputfallsbelowitsnaturalrate4CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-wagemodelImpliesthattherealwageshouldbecounter-cyclical,itshouldmoveintheoppositedirectionasoutputoverthecourseofbusinesscycles:
Inbooms,whenPtypicallyrises,therealwageshouldfall.Inrecessions,whenPtypicallyfalls,therealwageshouldrise.Thispredictiondoesnotcometrueintherealworld:
6CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThecyclicalbehavioroftherealwagePercentagechangeinrealwagePercentagechangeinrealGDP1982197519931992196019961999199719981979197019801991197419901984200019721965-3-2-101237865443210-1-2-3-4-57CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyTheimperfect-informationmodelAssumptions:
allwagesandpricesperfectlyflexible,allmarketscleareachsupplierproducesonegood,consumesmanygoodseachsupplierknowsthenominalpriceofthegoodsheproduces,butdoesnotknowtheoverallpricelevel8CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyTheimperfect-informationmodelSupplyofeachgooddependsonitsrelativeprice:
thenominalpriceofthegooddividedbytheoverallpricelevel.Supplierdoesntknowpricelevelatthetimeshemakesherproductiondecision,sousestheexpectedpricelevel,Pe.SupposePrisesbutPedoesnot.Thensupplierthinksherrelativepricehasrisen,sosheproducesmore.Withmanyproducersthinkingthisway,YwillrisewheneverPrisesabovePe.9CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-pricemodelReasonsforstickyprices:
long-termcontractsbetweenfirmsandcustomersmenucostsfirmsdonotwishtoannoycustomerswithfrequentpricechangesAssumption:
Firmssettheirownprices(e.g.asinmonopolisticcompetition)10CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-pricemodelAnindividualfirmsdesiredpriceiswherea0.Supposetwotypesoffirms:
firmswithflexibleprices,setpricesasabovefirmswithstickyprices,mustsettheirpricebeforetheyknowhowPandYwillturnout:
11CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-pricemodelAssumefirmsw/stickypricesexpectthatoutputwillequalitsnaturalrate.Then,Toderivetheaggregatesupplycurve,wefirstfindanexpressionfortheoverallpricelevel.Letsdenotethefractionoffirmswithstickyprices.Then,wecanwritetheoverallpricelevelas12CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-pricemodelSubtract(1s)Pfrombothsides:
pricesetbyflexiblepricefirmspricesetbystickypricefirmsDividebothsidesbys:
13CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-pricemodelHighPeHighPIffirmsexpecthighprices,thenfirmswhomustsetpricesinadvancewillsetthemhigh.Otherfirmsrespondbysettinghighprices.HighYHighPWhenincomeishigh,thedemandforgoodsishigh.Firmswithflexiblepricessethighprices.Thegreaterthefractionofflexiblepricefirms,thesmallerissandthebiggeristheeffectofYonP.14CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-pricemodelFinally,deriveASequationbysolvingforY:
15CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplyThesticky-pricemodelIncontrasttothesticky-wagemodel,thesticky-pricemodelimpliesaprocyclicalrealwage:
Supposeaggregateoutput/incomefalls.Then,Firmsseeafallindemandfortheirproducts.Firmswithstickypricesreduceproduction,andhencereducetheirdemandforlabor.Theleftwardshiftinlabordemandcausestherealwagetofall.16CHAPTER13CHAPTER13AggregateSupplyAggregateSupplySummary&implicationsEachofthethr
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