面对如此明显的中国房地产制度泡沫我们又该做些什么外文翻译.docx
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面对如此明显的中国房地产制度泡沫我们又该做些什么外文翻译.docx
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面对如此明显的中国房地产制度泡沫我们又该做些什么外文翻译
英文原文:
HowRealIsChina’sRealEstateBubbleAnd What Should Be Done about It
ThinkU.S.housingpriceshavegoneberserk?
TrythoseinShanghaiandBeijing,wherethecostofhomeshasbeenrisinganestimated25%annuallyinrecentyears.That’stwicethejumpinthemediansalepriceofexistingU.S.homesoverthepastyear,andasignthatChina’srealestatemarketisinthemidstofwhatsomeobserversviewasapotentiallyexplosivebubble.
ThebubbleisrootedinsuchfactorsasChina’sstrongeconomicgrowthsince1990andinvestorbetsthatChina’scurrency,theyuan,willberevaluedupwardinthenearfuture.ButsuchspeculationishelpingpushthepriceofhomesbeyondthereachofmiddleclasscitizensinkeyChinesecitiesandraisingtheprospectofasuddenmarketcollapsethatcouldthreatenthecountry’sshakybankingsectorandwipeoutthelifesavingsofmanyfamilies.
SomeseetheincreasinginvolvementofU.S.investorsinChina--includingtherecentmovebyBankofAmericatobuya9%stakeinChinaConstructionBank--asahopefuldevelopmentwhenitcomestocalmingthecountry’srealestatescene.Andgiventheprospectofsocialunreststemmingfromeithercontinuedpricehikesoratoo-fastpricedecline,theChinesegovernmenthastakenactiontocooldownthemarket.
ButBeijing’seffortssofarmaynotbeenoughtoreinintherisingrealestateprices,saysWhartonmarketingprofessorJohnZhang.Hewarnsthatthegovernmentmustbecarefulinwhatevermovesitmakesnext.“Managingtheprocessofburstingthebubbleisreallysomethingdelicate,”hesays.
InconsistentData
China’srealestatemarketisrelativelynew.Afteryearsofpropertybeingunderthestrictcontrolofthecommunistgovernment,Chinaphasedoutfreegovernment-providedhousesintheearly1990s.Butevennow,thereisalegacyofthecommunistsystem.Thestatetechnicallyownsthecountry’sland:
Individualsessentiallybuyrightstobuildontopofthelandorownstructuresalreadythere.
AswithothermeasuresoftheChineseeconomy,it’shardtogetaprecisegaugeonhowhousingpriceshavebeenchanginginthecountry.Lastyear,thecountry'saveragehousingpriceroseby14.4%,accordingtoastoryinJunebyofficialChinesenewsagencyXinhuacitingthecountry’sNationalBureauofStatistics.ThestoryalsosaidthatBeijing'shousingpricelevelhadbeendropping.Butanofficialwiththestatisticsbureauacknowledgedinthestorythatthenumbers“donotfullyrepresentthegeneralrealestatesituation”andthatsomegovernmentfiguresareinconsistent.
Giventhelackofsoliddata,itmaybeprematuretodefineChina’shousingmarketasabubble,notesWhartonrealestateprofessorGraceWong.Wong,whohaswrittenaboutarapidrun-upinHongKonghousingpricesinthelate1990s,saysabubbleistypicallydefinedaspricesatlevelshigherthanwhateconomicbasicsjustify.Speculation--whenbuyersarepurchasinghomesprimarilybecausetheyexpectthepricewillincrease--cancauseabubble,butpricehikesalsocanarisebecauseoffactorssuchasconstructioncostincreasesoranundersupplyofhomes.“Youwouldn’tbesoworriedifthehousingpricesaremovingupbecauseoffundamentalslikethat,”shenotes.
UshaHaley,professorofinternationalbusinessattheUniversityofNewHaven'sSchoolofBusiness,alsosuggeststhattalkaboutanationwidebubblecanoverstatethecase.SheestimatesthathousingpricesforChinaoverallhavebeenrising10%annuallyinrecentyears.Thatlevelmakesthecountry’srealestatepricegrowthslowerthaninmanyothercountriesaroundtheworld,includingtheUnitedStates.ButHaley,whorecentlywroteabookaboutbusinessinChinatitled,TheChineseTaoofBusiness,saysthemajorcitiesofShanghaiandBeijingarespecialcases,withannualrealestateappreciationratescloserto25-26%inthepastfewyears,orroughly$784persquaremeterinShanghai.ThepricesinBeijingarelower,butnotbymuch.Eventhesepricesdon’ttellthewholestory.OnesourcefamiliarwiththeShanghaihousingmarketsaysunfinishedcondominium“shells”innewShanghaihigh-risebuildingsarebeingmarketedatapriceofabout$2,000persquaremeter.
Amongthecausesoftherun-upinChinesehomeprices,Haleynotes,isgovernmentcorruption.Localofficialscanengageinpricegougingtoenrichthemselvesindividuallyorconspiretodriveuppricesonpropertysalesthatpadgovernmentcoffers.AnotherfactorisChina’soveralleconomicexpansion.China’seconomygrewatanaveragerateof10%peryearduringtheperiodbetween1990and2004,thehighestgrowthrateintheworld,accordingtotheU.S.statedepartment.China’stotaltradein2004surpassed$1.1trillion,makingittheworld’sthird-largesttradingnationaftertheU.S.andGermany.
WithChinabecomingmoreofahubintheglobaleconomy,itstandstoreasontherewouldbegreaterdemandforhousingdesignedforforeigncorporateexecutivesandotherex-patriots.Thisincreaseindemandhasledtohigherhousingprices,asnotedbyKennethAboussie,whotraveledtoChinain2003tostudytherealestatemarketwhileastudentattheMcCombsSchoolofBusinessattheUniversityofTexasatAustin.“Therewasnoquestiontherewasabubbleforthathigh-endhousing,”saysAboussie,whonowworksatAustin-basedCypressRealEstateAdvisors.
StillanothercauseforChina’srealestateboomiswidespreadanticipationthatChinawillrevaluetheyuansoon.China’sgovernmenthasbeenunderincreasingpressurefromtheU.S.todismantletheyuan’scurrentpegtothedollarandallowittoincreaseinvalue.CriticsargueChina’scurrencyisundervaluedbyroughly25%,makingitsexportsartificiallycheaperandimportsintothecountrymoreexpensive.
Shouldtheyuanincreaseinvalue,investmentsinChineseassetssuchasrealestatecanbeexpectedtoriseaswell,saysWharton’sZhang.“Partofthespeculationcomesfromtheexpectationoftheappreciationofthecurrency.”Someofthoserealestatebetsbasedontheyuan’srevaluationareforeigninnature,Zhangsuggests,adding,however,thatChinesecitizensalsohavepouredmoneyintorealestateholdings,especiallyafterthedisappointingperformanceofChinesestocksafewyearsago.
TheDangersofPanickedSelling
Aswithothereconomicbubblesthroughouthistory--suchasHolland’stulipcrazeinthe1600sandtheInternetstockfrenzyearlierthisdecade--there’sadangerthatChina’srealestatepriceswillcollapsequickly.That’stheflipsideoftheinflatedpricesassociatedwithabubble,Zhangexplains.Amidpanickedselling,buyersmaysitonthesidelinesuntilpricescratertounreasonablylowvalues.“Whenthepriceisonthewaydown,”problemscanarisethat“coulddestroythewholerealestatemarket,”Zhangsays.
AccordingtoHaley,arapidlossofrealestatevalueswouldharmChina’smajorbanks.Householdloans,includinghomeloans,makeupjust10to15%ofloansinChina,butmorethanhalfofChineselendingiscollateralizedwithprivateproperty,shesays.
Therun-upinpropertypriceshashadpositiveeffects,pointsoutHarrisonDuan,aChinesenativewhoattendedtheMcCombsschoolandaccompaniedAboussieonhisfirst-handstudyofChina’srealestatemarket.ConstructionandsteelareamongtheindustriesinChinathathavebenefitedfromtheboom.“Overthelastfiveyears,realestatehasbeenareallyimportantgrowthengineinChina,”henotes,addingthatthoseChinesewhoboughthomesthreeorfouryearsagohavegainedagreatdealofwealth,atleastonpaper.
ButthatequityappreciationmaynotmeanmuchforfamiliesthatneedtoliveintheirhomesevenastheskyrocketingpricesinplaceslikeShanghaiareverydisappointingtomanycityresidents.“TheShanghaimiddleclasscannolongeraffordtobuyanapartmentforthemselvesinaconvenientlocation,”saysDuan,whonowworksforcomputergiantDellasaglobalcommoditiesmanagerfocusedonwirelesscommunicationsproducts.DuanlivesintheAustin,Texas,areaonaguestworkervisa,butcanimaginereturningtoChinasomeday.Andifhedoes,Shanghai--notfarfromwherehegrewup--isprobablywherehewouldgo.Andyet,accordingtoDuan,itwouldbemuchharderforalocalmiddle-classfamilytopurchaseahomeinShanghaithaninAustin.
Thoseindividualstrugglescouldconceivablyturnintourbanprotests,echoingreportsofaslewofotherprotestsinthecountrywithinthepastyear.Atthesametime,anovernightpricecollapsecoulderasethelifesavingsofmanyChinese,anotherpossiblesourceofunrestthat“worriesthegovernment,”Zhangsays.
Againstthisbackdrop,theChinesegovernmenthastriedtoquiettherealestateboomwithaseriesofmeasures,includinghighermortgageratesandlargerdownpayments,accordingtoaMayarticlepublishedbyXinhua.AsofJune1,a5.5%capitalgainstaxwasduetotakeeffectonresidentialpropertysoldwithintwoyearsofpurchase.Inaddition,ShanghaiinMayenactedanewlawrequiringhomeownerstopayofftheirmortgagebeforesellingaproperty.Evenso,Zhangthinksmoreactionmaybeneededtoguidehomepricestoasoftlanding.“Itlookslikethemeasuresmaynotbesufficienttocoolthemarket.”Thekey,hesays,ismoderatestepsdesignedtoworkoverthecourseofseveralyears.Draconianactionaimedatsolvingtheprobleminamereyear’stimeriskstriggeringpanickedselling.Alsounwise,inZhang’sview,wouldbeahikeinoverallinterestrates,whichcouldfreezelendingfornewhomeconstructionbutalsostiflethecountry’seconomicgrowth.
Wharton’sWongwarnsthatanotheroft-discussedtoolfordeflatin
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