土耳其房地产市场的利弊分析毕业设计外文资料翻译.docx
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土耳其房地产市场的利弊分析毕业设计外文资料翻译.docx
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土耳其房地产市场的利弊分析毕业设计外文资料翻译
哈尔滨商业大学本科毕业设计
外文翻译
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2017年04月07日
AnAnalysisoftheStrengthsandWeaknessesoftheTurkishRealEstateMarket
1.Introduction
RealestateisoneoftheforemostandtraditionalinvestmentsforTurkishhouseholdduetoseveralreasons.Demographics,immigrationtourbanareas,urbanization,industrializationandrenewalarethemaincomponentsofthestrongdomesticdemandforrealestate.After2000-2001bankingcrisis,ithasbeenalsoobservedthatforeigndirectinvestments(FDI)torealestatemarketswerealsoaugmenting.
Afterthecrisis,Turkisheconomyhasshowedextraordinaryeconomicgrowthuntilnegativeimpactsofglobalfinancialcrisisinthe2008.EUfullmembershipcandidacy,politicalandeconomicstabilityandincreasingliquidity(duetotheriseindirectandportfolioinvestments)arethemaincomponentsofthegrowthperiod.
Risingresidentialprices,increasingthesupplyofresidentialunitandshoppingcenter,growingFDItodomesticrealestatemarket(particularlyforcommercialrealestateinvestments)andproductiongrowthinsocialrealestatemarket(byHDA/HousingDevelopmentAdministrationofTurkey)arethepositiveindicatorsofadynamicrealestatemarketsinthisperiod.Inadditiontothisremarkableperiodicmarketmovement,therearemanyreasonsforastronghousingdemandinTurkey(i.e.youngpopulationandinwardmigration,renewals,growingdemandforaffordablehousingandnicheresidentialdemandetc.)whicharesignificantforalong-termmarketdevelopment.Ontheotherhand,thedemandforindustrialandcommercialrealestatealsoseemsstronginTurkeythankstodynamicsocio-economicstructure.
Ourstudyismotivatedbytwofactors.First,althoughtheeconomicgrowthisrelativelyhigherandstrongdomesticandinternationalresidential/commercialrealestatedemandarethepositiveaspects,Turkishrealestatemarketexperiencesimportantdeficiencies.Inthispaper,weareattemptingtoreachanobjectiveapproachpresentingbothstrongandalsoweaksidesofthemarket.Second,theauthorisquestioningwhetherdeficienciesmaydecreasethepotentialvalueoftheopportunitiesinTurkishrealestatemarketandwhatkindofmeasureswouldbetakenforbettermarketplace.Toanalyzetheseissues,thepaperaimstodevelopasolutionframeworkforTurkishrealestatemarkets.
Thepaperwouldbefindchallenging.Because,toourknowledge,thisisthefirstattempttoevaluateoverallTurkishrealestatemarketstakingbothpositiveandnegativesidesintoaccount.Howeveritsuffersfromdataavailabilityandstatisticalmodeling,webelievethatthestudyhasaconsiderableoutcome.
Tobetterpublicandnon-publicpurposesrealestatemanagement,wethinkthatRealEstateRegulationandSupervisionAgencyshouldbeestablishedasanewgovernmentagency.Toourview,primaryexpectationofthisagencyistoenhancepublicinterest,customerprotectionandmarketefficiencyinrealestatemarkets.
Thepaperisorganizedinfourfurthersections.Insection2,weanalyzeTurkisheconomyandrealestatemarketingeneral.AdvantagesanddisadvantagesoftheTurkishrealestatemarketsarediscussedinsection3.Insection4,wearearguingwithsomereservationsthatanewgovernmentagencyshouldbeestablishedtosolvecurrentinefficienciesofTurkishrealestatemarkets.Andlastsectionisreservedfortheconclusionremarks.
2.OverviewtoTurkisheconomyandrealestatesector
Turkeyisthe17thlargesteconomyintheworld.HerGDPattheendof2008reached7418billionUSD.VariousinternationalresearchreportsarguethatTurkeywillbeamongthetenlargesteconomiesintheworldinthe40yearstocome.
Accordingtostatistics,TurkeyisconsideredtobeapromisingcountryinthegreaterEuropeanregion.Ifitismanagedeffectively,thecountryoffersseveraleconomicbenefitstoitstradepartnersandinvestors.Likeotherimmaturesectors,realestatemarketsshallalsoofferopportunities.Inthissection,weaimtooverviewthefactsandtrendsofTurkisheconomyandrealestatesector.
2.1.TurkishFinancialCrisis
Byvirtueoftherapidanduncontrolledfinancialliberalizationapproachlived1980s,Turkeyhasfacedseveralfinancialcrisisarisenfromthebankingsector.1982-1985,1994-1995and2000-2002werethecrisisperiodsforTurkisheconomy.Followedbyyear1980,severalfinancialrestraintswerealsoexperienced.Thelastcrisis,namely2000-2001bankingcrisis,wasthemostdestructiveonewhichhasradicallychangedbotheconomicandpoliticalpicturesofthecountry.
2.2.RealEstateandtheTurkishEconomy
TheareaofTurkeyis778.000.000km².26%ofthisareaisforestand12.3%ispasturearea.Therestisthecadastralareawhichcontains480.000km²,intotal.Residentialareaisabout5%(40.000km²)andruralareaisabout56%(440.000km²).
Bothconstructionandrealestatesectorshavecriticalfunctionsonthegrowth/developmentprocessoftheTurkisheconomy.Intermsofhousingfinance/constructionactivities,therealestateeconomyaffectsthelevelofeconomicactivity,employmentrateetc.Inthiscontext,theeconomyrequiresconstantrealestateinvestmentduetoincreasingeconomicgrowth,immigrationtourbanareas,renewalsetc.
Populationgrowthandinter-regionalmigrationhavebeenandwillbesignificantdriversfortheTurkishrealestatemarkets.In2007thefertilityratewasat2.2(childrenperwoman)comparedtoanaveragefertilityrateof1.5fortheEU-25countries.Withcurrentlymorethan53%ofinhabitantsyoungerthan30years,thisensuresasteadyexpansioninthenumberofpeopleofworkingage.Thesedemographictrendswillhaveastrongimpactonhousingdemandaswellasoncommercialrealestate(DeutscheBankResearch,2008:
7).Deloitte(2009:
77)estimatesthattherapidpopulationincreaseandtheneedforearthquake-resistanthousingprojectsensuredoverallgrowthandconstructionvolumereached€24bnin2007.JonesLangLasalle(2008:
5)underlinesthatoverthelastdecadeTurkey’surbanpopulationhasincreasedbysome10milliondwellers,whileIstanbulalonehasgrownbynearly2millionnewinhabitants.
Thefallofinflationandinterestratesafter2001,andincreasingliquidityledtotheriseofinvestmentsinrealestateandconstructionactivities.AccordingtoTurkStat(TurkishStatisticalInstitute),theconstructionsub-sectorhasmadecontributiontothegrossnationalproductsatarate3.5%-5.3%byproductionapproachbetweenyears2004-2006.AccordingtoStatePlanningOrganization(2006:
45)theshareoftheconstructionsector,whereanaverageof1,1millionpersonsareemployed,intotalemploymentwasrealizedas5,3percentasoftheendof2005.
3.ADVANTAGESANDDISADVANTAGESofREALESTATESECTOR
AlthoughonesideofthemedalseemsbrightforTurkeyasindicatedintheprevioussection,theobjectiveassessmentforthemarketrequiresacost-benefitanalysis.Inthissection,weareattemptingtoclassifybothadvantagesanddisadvantagesoftheTurkishrealestatesector.Aspartofthisanalysis,wealsopresentsuggestionstodevelopeffectivenessofthemarket.
3.1.OpportunitiesinTurkishRealEstateMarkets
TheeconomyandrealestatebusinessinTurkeyofferseveraladvantagestoinvestors.
Inthiscontext,fundamentals(geopoliticalposition;EUpositivecandidacyindustrialization;growing/stableeconomyetc.),positivesidesofdemographicsandurbanization,İstanbulasemergingmetropolis,somepublicpoliciesonrealestatesupply,dynamicandcreativeentrepreneurship,motivesindomesticdemandandotherfactorsforstrongdemand,advantagesofREITs(orİstanbulStockExchange’spositiveimpactstorealestatebusiness),advantagesofbeingalatecomer,developmentsinregulatoryframeworkanddevelopingacademicknowledgewouldbeclassifiedasopportunities(orpositivefactors)supportingthepotentialvaluesofTurkisheconomyandrealestatebusiness.SuchfactorsmakepositivecontributionstotheexpectedrateofreturnoftherealestateinvestmentinTurkey.
3.1.1.MotivesinDomesticDemand
Ahighinflationaryenvironmentandnegativerealinterestrates,whichformanydecadeswereamainstayofTurkisheconomy,resultedinunusualinvestmentpatternsforboththeTurkishhouseholdandcorporatesectors.Duringthisperiod,theemphasiswasmostlyoninvestmentinpreciousmetals(specificallythegoldmarket)andrealestate(Coşkun,2010a:
30).
SpendingonhousingfinanceandrentconsistofconsiderablepartofconsumerpaymentsinTurkey.Inthiscontext,HousingDepartmentofTurkey(2003:
5-16)indicatesthatintheyear1965theresidentialleaseholdersconsistsof38,66%oftheallhousehold.Thisratiodeclined31,6%intheyear2000.Inotherwords,3,5millionpeoplehavemonthlyrentpaymentsinTurkey.Therefore,theresidentialleaseholderscouldbeseenpotentialmortgagebuyersifaffordableloanswouldbeavailable.
EuropeanMortgageFederation(2007:
124)underlinesthataveragehousingratiois67%inEU27countries.Thisratiois68%inBelgium(in2001),80%inItaly(in2002)and75%inPoland(in2004).AccordingtoTurkStatandHousingDepartment(2003:
4)owneroccupationrateis68,2%inTurkey.AlthoughownershipratioseemshighinTurkey,demographics,ruralimmigration,urbanization,industrializationandrenewalarethemaincomponentsofthestrongdomesticdemandforresidential.
3.1.2.OpportunitiesinİstanbulRealEstateMarkets
İstanbulistheessentialdriveroftherealestateinvestmentsinthecountryandstillneedsmoreofficespace,upper/middleclassresidential,logisticsandhotelinvestments.Althoughtheestimatednumberswould
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