凯南长电报英文版.docx

凯南长电报英文版.docx

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凯南长电报英文版

TheLongTelegram

GeorgeKennan

Moscow

22February1946

AnswertoDept’s284,Feb.3,11involvesquestionssointricate,sodelicate,sostrangetoourformofthought,andsoimportanttoanalysisofourinternationalenvironmentthatIcannotcompressanswersintosinglebriefmessagewithoutyieldingtowhatIfeelwouldbedangerousdegreeofoversimplification.Ihope,therefore,DeptwillbearwithmeifIsubmitinanswertothisquestionfiveparts,subjectsofwhichwillberoughlyasfollows:

（1）BasicfeaturesofpostwarSovietoutlook.

（2）Backgroundofthisoutlook.

（3）Itsprojectioninpracticalpolicyonofficiallevel.

（4）Itsprojectiononunofficiallevel.

（5）PracticaldeductionsfromstandpointofUSpolicy.

Iapologizeinadvanceforthisburdeningoftelegraphicchannel;butquestionsinvolvedareofsuchurgentimportance,particularlyinviewofrecentevents,thatouranswerstothem,iftheydeserveattentionatall,seemtometodeserveitatonce.Therefollows:

Part1:

BasicFeaturesofPostwarSovietOutlookasPutForwardbyOfficialPropagandaMachine,AreasFollows

（a）USSRstilllivesinantagonistic"capitalistencirclement"withwhichinthelongruntherecanbenopermanentpeacefulcoexistence.AsstatedbyStalinin1927toadelegationofAmericanworkers:

"Incourseoffurtherdevelopmentofinternationalrevolutiontherewillemergetwocentersofworldsignificance:

asocialistcenter,drawingtoitselfthecountrieswhichtendtowardsocialism,andacapitalistcenter,drawingtoitselfthecountriesthatinclinetowardcapitalism.Battlebetweenthesetwocentersforcommandofworldeconomywilldecidefateofcapitalismandofcommunisminentireworld.

（b）Capitalistworldisbesetwithinternalconflicts,inherentinnatureofcapitalistsociety.Theseconflictsareinsolublebymeansofpeacefulcompromise.GreatestofthemisthatbetweenEnglandandUS.

（c）Internalconflictsofcapitalisminevitablygeneratewars.Warsthusgeneratedmaybeoftwokinds:

intra-capitalistwarsbetweentwocapitaliststatesandwarsofinterventionagainstsocialistworld.Smartcapitalists,vainlyseekingescapefrominnerconflictsofcapitalism,inclinetowardlatter.

（d）InterventionagainstUSSR,whileitwouldbedisastroustothosewhoundertookit,wouldcausereneweddelayinprogressofSovietsocialismandmustthereforebeforestalledatallcosts.

（e）Conflictsbetweencapitaliststates,thoughlikewisefraughtwithdangerforUSSR,neverthelessholdoutgreatpossibilitiesforadvancementofsocialistcause,particularlyifUSSRremainsmilitarilypowerful,ideologicallymonolithicandfaithfultoitspresentbrilliantleadership.

（f）Itmustbeborneinmindthatcapitalistworldisnotallbad.Inadditiontohopelesslyreactionaryandbourgeoiselements,itincludes

（1）certainwhollyenlightenedandpositiveelementsunitedinacceptablecommunisticpartiesand

（2）certainotherelements（nowdescribedfortacticalreasonsasprogressiveordemocratic）whosereactions,aspirationsandactivitieshappentobe"objectively"favorabletointerestsofUSSR.TheselastmustbeencouragedandutilizedforSovietpurposes.

（g）Amongnegativeelementsofbourgeois-capitalistsociety,mostdangerousofallarethosewhomLenincalledfalsefriendsofthepeople,namelymoderate-socialistorsocial-democraticleaders（inotherwords,non-Communistleft-wing）.Thesearemoredangerousthanout-and-outreactionaries,forlatteratleastmarchundertheirtruecolors,whereasmoderateleft-wingleadersconfusepeoplebyemployingdevicesofsocialismtoserveinterestsofreactionarycapital.

Somuchforpremises.TowhatdeductionsdotheyleadfromstandpointofSovietpolicy?

Tofollowing:

（a）EverythingmustbedonetoadvancerelativestrengthofUSSRasfactorininternationalsociety.Conversely,noopportunitymustbemissedtoreducestrengthandinfluence,collectivelyaswellasindividually,ofcapitalistpowers.

（b）Sovietefforts,andthoseofRussia’sfriendsabroad,mustbedirectedtowarddeepeningandexploitingofdifferencesandconflictsbetweencapitalistpowers.Iftheseeventuallydeepenintoan"imperialist"war,thiswarmustbeturnedintorevolutionaryupheavalswithinthevariouscapitalistcountries.

（c）"Democratic-progressive"elementsabroadaretobeutilizedtomaximumtobringpressuretobearoncapitalistgovernmentsalonglinesagreeabletoSovietinterests.

（d）Relentlessbattlemustbewagedagainstsocialistandsoial-democraticleadersabroad.

Part2:

BackgroundofOutlook

BeforeexaminingramificationsofthispartylineinpracticetherearecertainaspectsofittowhichIwishtodrawattention.

First,itdoesnotrepresentnaturaloutlookofRussianpeople.Latterare,byandlarge,friendlytooutsideworld,eagerforexperienceofit,eagertomeasureagainstittalentstheyareconsciousofpossessing,eagerabovealltoliveinpeaceandenjoyfruitsoftheirownlabor.Partylineonlyrepresentsthesiswhichofficialpropagandamachineputsforwardwithgreatskillandpersistencetoapublicoftenremarkablyresistantinthestrongholdofitsinnermostthoughts.Butpartylineisbindingforoutlookandconductofpeoplewhomakeupapparatusofpower--party,secretpoliceandGovernment--anditisexclusivelywiththesethatwehavetodeal.

Second,pleasenotethatpremisesonwhichthispartylineisbasedareformostpartsimplynottrue.Experiencehasshownthatpeacefulandmutuallyprofitablecoexistenceofcapitalistandsocialiststatesisentirelypossible.Basicinternalconflictsinadvancedcountriesarenolongerprimarilythosearisingoutofcapitalistownershipofmeansofproduction,butareonesarisingfromadvancedurbanismandindustrialismassuch,whichRussiahasthusfarbeensparednotbysocialismbutonlybyherownbackwardness.Internalrivalriesofcapitalismdonotalwaysgeneratewars;andnotallwarsareattributabletothiscause.TospeakofpossibilityofinterventionagainstUSSRtoday,aftereliminationofGermanyandJapanandafterexampleofrecentwar,issheerestnonsense.Ifnotprovokedbyforcesofintoleranceandsubversion,"capitalist"worldoftodayisquitecapableoflivingatpeacewithitselfandwithRussia.Finally,nosanepersonhasreasontodoubtsincerityofmoderatesocialistleadersinWesterncountries.Norisitfairtodenysuccessoftheireffortstoimproveconditionsforworkingpopulationwhenever,asinScandinavia,theyhavebeengivenchancetoshowwhattheycoulddo.

Falsenessofthesepremises,everyoneofwhichpredatesrecentwar,wasamplydemonstratedbythatconflictitself.Anglo-AmericandifferencesdidnotturnouttobemajordifferencesofWesternworld.Capitalistcountries,otherthanthoseofAxis,showednodispositiontosolvetheirdifferencesbyjoiningincrusadeagainstUSSR.Insteadofimperialistwarturningintocivilwarsandrevolution,USSRfounditselfobligedtofightsidebysidewithcapitalistpowersforanavowedcommunityofaims.

Nevertheless,allthesetheses,howeverbaselessanddisproven,arebeingboldlyputforwardagaintoday.Whatdoesthisindicate?

ItindicatesthatSovietpartylineisnotbasedonanyobjectiveanalysisofsituationbeyondRussia’sborders;thatithas,indeed,littletodowithconditionsoutsideofRussia;thatitarisesmainlyfrombasicinner-Russiannecessitieswhichexistedbeforerecentwarandexisttoday.

AtbottomofKremlin’sneuroticviewofworldaffairsistraditionalandinstinctiveRussiansenseofinsecurity.Originally,thiswasinsecurityofapeacefulagriculturalpeopletryingtoliveonvastexposedplaininneighborhoodoffiercenomadicpeoples.Tothiswasadded,asRussiacameintocontactwitheconomicallyadvancedWest,fearofmorecompetent,morepowerful,morehighlyorganizedsocietiesinthatarea.ButthislattertypeofinsecuritywasonewhichafflictedRussianrulersratherthanRussianpeople;forRussianrulershaveinvariablysensedthattheirrulewasrelativelyarchaicinform,fragileandartificialinitspsychologicalfoundations,unabletostandcomparisonorcontactwithpoliticalsystemsofWesterncountries.Forthisreasontheyhavealwaysfearedforeignpenetration,feareddirectcontactbetweenWesternworldandtheirown,fearedwhatwouldhappenifRussianslearnedtruthaboutworldwithoutorifforeignerslearnedtruthaboutworldwithin.Andtheyhavelearnedtoseeksecurityonlyinpatientbutdeadlystrugglefortotaldestructionofrivalpower,neverincompactsandcompromiseswithit.

ItwasnocoincidencethatMarxism,whichhadsmoulderedineffectivelyforhalfacenturyinWesternEurope,caughtholdandblazedforthefirsttimeinRussia.Onlyinthislandwhichhadneverknownafriendlyneighbororindeedanytolerantequilibriumofseparatepowers,eitherinternalorinternational,couldadoctrinethrivewhichviewedeconomicconflictsofsocietyasinsolublebypeacefulmeans.AfterestablishmentofBolshevistregime,Marxistdogma,renderedevenmoretruculentandintolerantbyLenin’sinterpretation,becomeaperfectvehicleforsenseofinsecuritywithwhichBolsheviks,evenmorethanpreviousRussianrulers,wereafflicted.Inthisdogma,withitsbasicaltruismofpurpose,theyfoundjustificationfortheirinstinctivefearofoutsideworld,forthedictatorshipwithoutwhichtheydidnotknowhowtorule,forcrueltiestheydidnotdarenottoinflict,forsacrificestheyfeltboundtodemand.InthenameofMarxismtheysacrificedeverysingleethicalvalueintheirmethodsandtactics.Todaytheycannotdispensewithit.Itisfigleafoftheirmoralandintellectualrespectability.Withoutittheywouldstandbeforehistory,atbest,asonlythelast