最新MarketSizing案例.docx
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最新MarketSizing案例.docx
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最新MarketSizing案例
Market-Sizing案例
MarketSizing案例解答:
题目一:
请估算中国一年生产的高尔夫球数目
解答:
高尔夫球数目=50TierOneorTwoCity*20GolfCourts*300Days*
GolfBallsUsedTimesEveryday*DepreciationRate
GolfBallsUsedTimesEveryday=(200meters*200meters)/(50meters*50meters)*
6timesperHours*8Hours
其中(200meters*200meters/50meters*meters)为PeopleCapacity
DepreciaitonRate=1/20,即使用20次损坏或丢失
答案约为1000万个
题目二:
请估算北京的加油站数目
解答:
北京的加油站数目=北京的汽车数目*每天加油的次数/每个加油站一天的服务数目
北京的汽车数目=北京人口(=2000万)*20-50岁人口比例(=1/2)*月收入大于5000比例
(1/10)/私车所占比例(=50%)
每天加油的次数=1/每隔多少天加一次油(=10天)
每个加油站一天的服务数目=12Hours*60Minutes/10Minutes*3个加油口
答案约为1000个
题目三:
请估算此时此刻中国大陆上空的飞机数目
解答:
中国大陆上空的飞机数目=中国飞机的数目*一架飞机在空中的概率
中国飞机的数目=50TierOneorTwoCity*机场每天吞吐量(即起飞降落数目)
/一架飞机一天的起降数目
假设此时此刻在白天,则:
一架飞机在空中的概率=飞行时间/(飞行时间+整修时间)=2/3
机场每天吞吐量(即起飞降落数目)=一分钟的起降数(=20分钟起降/20个跑道)*12H
ours*60Minutes
一架飞机一天的起降数目=二到三个航班*2=5(包含国际航班影响的平均值)
答案约为1万架
Duringyourcaseinterview,youmaybeaskedtomakeestimatesorsolveaproblem.You'llfindtwoexamplesbelowthatwillhelpyouthinkthroughtheprocessofarrivingatreasonableestimates.Thethirdquestionisabrainteaser—aremindertothinkcreativelywhentacklinganycaseinterviewproblem.
Q:
HowmanypayphonesarethereontheislandofManhattan?
A:
AlogicalplacetobeginyouranalysismightbetoballparkthenumberofpayphonesonManhattanstreetcorners.IfyouthinkofNewYorkCityasagridofstreets,youmightguessitisabout300streetslong(northtosouth)bytenstreetswide(easttowest),soithasapproximately3,000intersections.Youmightthenassumethereisonepayphoneforeverytwointersections,foratotalofabout1,500payphones.
Ifyou’refeelingreallycreative,youmightsubtractthenumberofintersectionsthatare“invalidated”becausetheyfallintheareaofCentralPark.SayCentralParkistenblockslongbytwoblockswide,or20intersections.Usingyourone-pay-phone-for-every-two-intersectionsassumption,youwouldwanttosubtracttenpayphonesfromtheoriginal1,500.
Youmightthenaddtothe1,490thenumberofpayphonesthatmightbefoundinrestaurants,hotels,schools,hospitals,andoffice-buildinglobbies.
Q:
Howmanyhotel-sizedbottlesofshampooandconditionerareproducedeachyeararoundtheworld?
A:
Youmightbeginbyassumingthathotel-sizedbottlesareproducedfortwopurposesonly:
1.Tosupplyhotelsandupscalemotels
2.Toprovidesamplesforgiftpacks,salons,andsoon
Youwouldthenwanttostartbyestimatingthenumberofhotelsandmotelsaroundtheworldthatoffertheproductstotheirguests.Onewayofestimatingthenumberofhotelsistoassumethathotelsarefoundpredominantlyinmajorcitiesandresorts.Figurethatthereare2,000majorcitiesandresortsaroundtheworld,anaverageoftenforeachoftheworld’sapproximately200countries.Assumethateachcityaverages20hotelsthatofferbottledhairproductstotheirguests.Multiplying20by2,000givesyou40,000hotelsaroundtheworldthatrequireshampooand/orconditionerfortheirguests.
Tounderstandhowmanybottlesofshampooandconditionerthe40,000hotelsrequire,younowneedtoestimatethetotalnumberofuseseachhotelonaveragerepresents.Youcanarriveatthatnumberthroughthefollowingcalculation:
assumethatthereare100roomsineachhotel,andthatthoseroomsareoccupied50percentofthetime.Multiplying40,000by100by0.5by365(don’tforgetthenumberofdaysintheyear!
)givesyouapproximately750million.
However,itisprobablyreasonabletoassumethatagueststayingforlongerthanadaywillnotuseawholeshampoobottleeveryday.Ifyouassumethatanaverageofoneshampoobottleisusedforeverytwooccupieddaysinagivenroom,youcannowdivideyour750millionestimateinhalfto375million.Togettothenumberofbottlesofconditioner,estimatearatiobetweentheuseofshampooandtheuseofconditioner.Sincemanyofusdonotconditioneverytimeweshampoo,youmightassumethattheratiois2:
1.Dividing375millioninhalfgivesyouapproximately190million.Yourconclusionwouldthenbethat375millionbottlesofshampooand190millionbottlesofconditionerarerequiredforhoteluseeveryyear.
Toestimatethetotalmarketsize,youcanprobablymakethingseasyonyourselfbyassumingthatthenumberproducedforsamplepurposesisasmallpercentageofthetotal,saytenpercent.Combiningyourtwomarketswouldgiveyouapproximately400millionbottlesofshampooand210millionbottlesofconditioner.
Finally,youmightwantto“realitycheck”yourtotalfigure.Assuming610millionbottlesareproducedandsoldeachyearatanaveragepriceof25centseach,theworldwidemarketforminiaturebottlesofshampooandconditionerisabout$150million.Doesthatsoundreasonable?
Q:
Youareinaroomwiththreelightswitches,eachofwhichcontrolsoneofthreelightbulbsinthenextroom.Yourtaskistodeterminewhichswitchcontrolswhichbulb.Alllightsareoff.Yourconstraintsare:
youmayflickonlytwoswitchesandyoumayentertheroomwiththelightbulbsonlyonce.Howwouldyousetaboutdeterminingwhichswitchcontrolswhichbulb?
A:
Tosolvethisriddleyoumustdosomeout-of-the-boxthinking.Thebestwaytodeterminewhichlightbulbiswhichistoflickoneswitchon,waitforfiveminutesandflickitoff.Thenflickoneoftheremainingtwoswitchesonandleavetheotheroff.Whenyouentertheroomwiththebulbs,youcandeterminewhichswitchcontrolswhichofthetwolightsthatareoffbyfeelingtoseewhichofthebulbsishot(fromhavingburnedforfiveminutes).
Othercreativesolutionsinvolvepushingtheconstraintsofthegame.Youmightaskiftheroomyou’reinhasaphone,soyoucouldcallsomebodytohelpyou.Youmightaskiftheroomshaveaconnectingwindow.Youmightassumeyoucanleavethefirstroomanumberoftimes,andthereforegoout,buyadrill,andboreaholethroughthewallsoyoucanseewhichlightbulbisconnectedtowhichswitch.Or,youmightbuyamirrorandplaceitstrategicallyoutsidethedoortoguideyou.
Remember,youarelimitedonlybyyourimagination.
Duringyourcaseinterview,youmaybeaskedtomakeestimatesorsolveaproblem.You'llfindtwoexamplesbelowthatwillhelpyouthinkthroughtheprocessofarrivingatreasonableestimates.Thethirdquestionisabrainteaser—aremindertothinkcreativelywhentacklinganycaseinterviewproblem.
Q:
上海有多少个加油站?
A:
可以从supplier的角度来考虑这个问题,我只要知道多少辆车需要一个加油站,然后知道上海汽车的保有量,就可以得出上海有多少个加油站。
A:
截止到2003年底,上海汽车保有量大概有73万辆。
A:
要得出多少辆车需要一个加油站,可以这样算:
平均一个加油站从早上6:
00营业到晚上12:
00,工作18个小时,假设有4个油泵,每次为汽车加油平均为5分钟,这样就可以算出一天每个加油站大致为多少辆车加油。
18*60*4/5=860辆。
然后用730000/860得出850个加油站
截至目前,上海机动车保有量达到200多万量
ibelievetheanswerof850isjusttherightanswerfortheextremesituation,fromtherealisticperspective,wehavetoconsidertheunoccupiedrateforallgasfefillers,whichwillbasedonthespecificshanghai-basedmarketfeatures.
Q:
HowmanypayphonesarethereontheislandofManhattan?
A:
AlogicalplacetobeginyouranalysismightbetoballparkthenumberofpayphonesonManhattanstreetcorners.IfyouthinkofNewYorkCityasagridofstreets,youmightguessitisabout300streetslong(northtosouth)bytenstreetswide(easttowest),soithasapproximately3,000intersections.Youmightthenassumethereisonepayphoneforeverytwointersections,foratotalofabout1,500payphones.
Ifyou’refeelingreallycreative,youmightsubtractthenumberofintersectionsthatare“invalidated”becausetheyfallintheareaofCentralPark.SayCentralParkistenblockslongbytwoblockswide,or20intersections.Usingyourone-pay-phone-for-every-two-intersectionsassumption,youwouldwanttosubtracttenpayphonesfromtheoriginal1,500.
Youmightthenaddtothe1,490thenumberofpayphonesthatmightbefoundinrestaurants,hotels,schools,hospitals,andoffice-buildinglobbies.
Q:
Howmanyhotel-sizedbottlesofshampooandconditionerareproducedeachyeararoundtheworld?
A:
Youmightbeginbyassumingthathotel-sizedbottlesareproducedfortwopurposesonly:
1.Tosupplyhotelsandupscalemotels
2.Toprovidesamplesforgiftpacks,salons,andsoon
Youwouldthenwanttostartbyestimatingthenumberofhotelsandmotelsaroundtheworldthatoffertheproductstotheirguests.Onewayofestimatingthenumberofhotelsistoassumethathotelsarefoundpredominantlyinmajorcitiesandresorts.Figurethatthereare2,000majorcitiesandresortsaroundtheworld,anaverageoftenforeachoftheworld’sapproximately200countries.Assumethateachcityaverages20hotelsthatofferbottledhairproductstotheirguests.Multiplying20by2,000givesyou40,000hotelsaroundtheworldthatrequireshampooand/orconditionerfortheirguests.
Tounderstandhowmanybottlesofshampooandconditionerthe40,000hotelsrequire,younowneedtoestimatethetotalnumberofuseseachhotelonaveragerepresents.Youcanarriveatthatnumberthroughthefollowingcalculation:
assumethatthereare100roomsineachhotel,andthatthoseroomsareoccupied50percentofthetime.Multiplying40,000by100by0.5by365(don’tforgetthenumberofdaysintheyear!
)givesyouapproximately750million.
However,itisprobablyreasonabletoassumethatagueststayingforlongerthanadaywillnotuseawholeshampoobottleeveryday.Ifyouassumethatanaverageofoneshampoobottleisusedforeverytwooccupieddaysinagivenroom,youcannowdivideyour750millionestimateinhalfto375million.Togettothenumberofbottlesofconditioner,estimatearatiobetweentheuseofshampooandtheuseofconditioner.Sincemanyof
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