低碳经济的外文翻译.docx
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低碳经济的外文翻译.docx
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低碳经济的外文翻译
外文翻译
原文:
Lowcarboneconomy
ThispaperexaminesdifferentcarbonpathwaysforachievingdeepCO2reductiontargetsfortheUKusingamacro-econometrichybridmodelE3MG,whichstandsforEnergy–Economy–EnvironmentModelattheGloballevel.TheE3MG,withcombinesatop-downapproachformodelingtheglobaleconomyandforestimatingtheaggregateanddisaggregateenergydemandandabottom-upapproach(EnergyTechnologysubModel,ETM)forsimulatingthepowersector,whichthenprovidesfeedbacktotheenergydemandequationsandthewholeeconomy.TheETMsubmodelusesaprobabilisticapproachandhistoricaldataforestimatingthepenetrationlevelsofthedifferenttechnologies,consideringtheireconomic,technicalandenvironmentalcharacteristics.Threepathwayscenarios(CFH,CLCandCAM)simulatetheCO2reductionby40%,60%and80%by2050comparedto1990levelsrespectivelyandarecomparedwithareferencescenario,withnoreductiontarget.ThetargetsaremodeledastheUKcontributiontoaninternationalmitigationeffort,suchasachievingtheG8reductiontargets,whichisamorerealisticpoliticalframeworkfortheUKtomovetowardsdeepreductionsratherthanmovingalone.ThispaperaimstoprovidemodelingevidencethatdeepreductiontargetscanbemetthroughdifferentcarbonpathwayswhilealsoassessingthemacroeconomiceffectsofthepathwaysonGDPandinvestment.
Climatechange,asaresultofrisinggreenhousegasemissions,threatensthestabilityoftheworld’sclimate,economyandpopulation.Thecausesandconsequencesofclimatechangeareglobal,andwhilenationalgovernmentscanandshouldtakeaction,theultimatesolutionmustbeacollectiveglobaleffort.Thelatestscientificconsensus(IPCC,2007)hasfurtherstrengthenedtheevidencebasethatitisverylikelythatanthropogenicGHGemissionsatorabovecurrentrateswouldcausefurtherwarmingandinducemanychangesintheglobalclimatesystemduringthe21stcentury.Amajorrecentreportontheeconomicsofglobalclimatechange(Stern,2006)supportsthepositionthatthebenefitsofstringentclimatemitigationactionoutweighedthecostsandrisksofdelayedaction.Althoughthereisaglobalconsiderationoftheclimatechangeeffects,individualcountrieshaveundertakendifferentstepsinclimatechangemitigation,whichisobviousgiventheextendednegotiationstowardstheratificationoftheKyotoProtocol.TheEUandindividualMemberStateshaveundertakenseveralcommitmentsanddirectedseveralpoliciestowardsthereductionoftheiremissions.UKhasbeenselectedforthisanalysisasthereispoliticalwillwithinthecountry,asdescribedbelowfromthecommitmentstotackleclimatechange.Butthiscommitmentcanbeexaminedinthecontextofnegotiationsatinternationallevel,suchastherecentcommitmentofG8toreducetheiremissionsby80%by2050.
ClimatechangemitigationandenergysecurityaretheUK’scoreenergypolicygoals(BERR,2007).Inaddition,thedeclineindomesticreservesandproductionofUKoilandnaturalgas,combinedwithincreasinggeopoliticalinstabilitiesinkeygasandoilproductionandtransmissioncountrieshavehighlightedtheneedforasecureandresilientUKenergysystem.OtherUKenergypolicygoalsarereductionsinvulnerableconsumers’exposuretohighenergypricesandacontinuedemphasisonopenandcompetitiveenergymarkets.
TheUKsetitselfagroundbreakingclimatechangemitigationpolicywiththepublicationofalong-termnationalCO2reductiontargetof60%by2050(DTI,2003).ThistargetwasestablishedinresponsetotheclimatechallengesetoutbytheRoyalCommissiononEnvironmentalPollution(RCEP,2000).Climatechangemitigationtargetswerereaffirmedinlightofcompetingenergysecurityissuesviathe2007EnergyWhitepaper(BERR,2007).The60%UKCO2reductionstargetisbeingestablishedintheUKlegislativeprocessthroughtheClimateChangeBillastheminimumCO2reductiontargetrequiredby2050(DEFRA,2008).ThislongertermtargethasbeenfurtheranalyzedbythenewregulatoryCommitteeonClimateChange(CCC,2008),inlightofnewevidenceconcerningglobalstabilizationtargets(IPCC,2007).Thishasledtotheproposalforan80%reductiontargetforgreenhousegasesby2050comparedto1990levels.ThistargethasbeenadoptedbytheBrownAdministrationandtheEnergyandClimateChangeSecretaryofStateEdMiliband,becomingalawthroughtheClimateChangeAct(DECC,2008).Additionally,theUKhasbeenaleadingproponentofgloballong-termCO2targetsettingwithintheG8,asthecausesandconsequencesofclimatechangeareglobal,andwhilenationalgovernmentscanandshouldtakeaction,theultimatesolutionmustbeacollectiveglobaleffort.TheG8dialogueresultedinagreementatthe2009G8Italiansummitforarobustresponsetoclimatechangeincludingtheadoptionofthegoaltoachieveatleast80%reductionoftheiremissionsby2050,andaimingtoreachanagreementofa50%reductioninglobalemissionswithothercountries.
TheimplementationofthreedeepCO2reductiontargets(40%,60%and80%)fortheG8isexaminedusingthemacro-econometricE3MGmodel.ResultsarereportedfortheUK,whichisselectedasthereisapoliticalwilltoimplementsuchreductions.Thesetargets,examinedwithintheUKEnergyResearchCenter’s2050project(UKERC,2050),aremetthroughtheimplementationofaportfolioofpoliciesincontrasttotheneoclassicalapproach,wherethetargetsareimposedandthemarginalabatementcostformeetingthosetargetsisestimated.Thepapercontributesbyadoptinganovelhybridapproachintegratingsimulationmodelsoftheeconomicsystemandenergytechnologiesandthereforeprovidinganalternativeapproachtothetraditionaleconomicequilibriummodeling.Moreoverthepaperaimstoprovideevidencethatthereexistpathwaysformeetingdeepreductiontargetsandalsohelpingtheeconomytogrow.TheneedforsuchevidencehasbeennotedbytheIPCCinitsassessmentoftheliteratureonstringentmitigationtargets.Suchevidencecaninformtheinternationalnegotiationsforapost-Kyotoglobalagreement.
Long-termforecastoftheeconomyandoftheenergysystemexpansionissubjecttouncertaintiesonfossilfuelresources,prices,economicandtechnicalcharacteristicsofnewtechnologies,behavioralchange,politicalframeworkandregulatoryenvironment.Butthemodelingapproachimplementedtosimulatetheenergysystemandtheinteractionwiththeglobaleconomyiscrucialfortheresults.Therearemanymodelingapproachesusedforexaminingenergyandclimatepoliciesatglobaloratnationalleveleitherthroughmacroorenergysystemmodels.Intheextensiveliteratureonenergy-economicmodelingofenergyandclimatepolicies,therearetwowidespreadmodelingapproaches:
bottom-upvs.top-downmodels.Thetwomodelclassesdiffermainlywithrespecttotheemphasisplacedontechnologicaldetailsoftheenergysystemandthecomprehensivenessofendogenousmarketadjustments(BohringerandRutherford,2007).However,recentevaluationsoftheliterature(IPCC,2007)haveshowntheincreasingconvergenceofthesemodelcategoriesaseachgroupofmodelersadoptsthestrengthsofthealternateapproach.Thereisalongtrackrecordofenergymodelsunderpinningmajorenergypolicyinitiatives,producingalargeandvibrantresearchcommunityandabroadrangeofenergymodelingapproaches(JebaraandIniyan,2006).Particularlyinrecentyears,energymodelshavebeendirectlyappliedbypolicymakersforlong-termdecarburizationscenarios(IEA,2008;Dasetal.,2007;EuropeanCommission,2006),withfurtheracademicmodelingcollaborationsdirectlyfeedingintotheglobalpolicydebateonclimatechangemitigation(Weyant,2004;StrachanNeiletal.,2009).
Beforederivinganyparticularconclusionfromthescenariospresentedinthispaper,itisimportanttoconsiderthemodelingapproachandthewaythescenarioshavebeenimplementedwithE3MG.E3MGbeingamacro-econometricmodeloftheglobaleconomyhastheadvantageofexaminingpoliciesatglobalandatnationallevel,whichismoreimportantincasesofinternationalefforts.The40%,60%and80%reductiontargetsarenotrealisticoptionsifimplementedonlybyUKbecausetheywouldnotleadtoasignificantreductioninclimatechangeandbecausenosinglecountrywouldeasilytakeadecisionmovingtowardssuchpoliciesonitsown.ForthesereasonsweassumethattheemissionsreductiontargetsfortheUKareimplementedaspartofinternationalreductiontargets.BasedonthefactsthattheObamaUSAAdministrationiscommittedtofindingsolutiontoclimatechangeissueandthemajordevelopingcountriesarereluctanttoadoptsuchpoliciesinthemediumterm,aG8reductiontargetof40%,60%and80%by2050comparedto1990levelsseemstobeamorerealisticframework.
TheE3MGmodeladoptsahybridapproach.Theaggregateanddisaggregateenergydemandisestimatedusingeconometrictechniques,allowingforfuelswitchingforthe12differentfueltypesandforthe19fuelusers,whilethepowersectorissimulatedusingaprobabilisticapproachwhichconsiderstheeconomic,technical,environmentalcharacteristicsofthepowerunitsbutconsidersalsothehistory.Theelectricsystemexpansionismodeledbyusingparametersforthedifferenttechnologiesbasedonhistoricaldataonlearningrates,whichallowsnewtechnologiestogainashareinthemarketevenwhentheircostishigherthanconventionaltechnologies.Moreoverthedispatchofthedifferenttechnologiestomeettheelectricdemand,althoughusingthecostoptimizationapproachcomparingthepenetrationofthedifferenttechnologies,takeshistoricaldataasitsstart
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