金融理论研究.ppt
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金融理论研究.ppt
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金融理论研究专题主讲:
龚秀国博士职称:
经济学教授博导单位:
四川大学经济学院金融理论研究导论
(一)nFinance的两个涵义:
筹措资金(“金融”、“融资”)和使用资金(“理财”、“财务”、“投资”)nFinance的基本载体与关注对象:
“金”、“钱”(Money)或者“资金”(Funds)n中央银行(CentralBank)及其制定的货币政策(MonetaryPolicy)在Finance中占据基础地位:
无源之水与无本之木金融理论研究导论
(二)n金融体系(Financial/BankingSystem):
中央银行;商业银行,投资银行,保险公司,其它金融机构;offshorebankingn金融市场(FinancialMarkets):
货币市场(银行间拆借/债券市场);资本市场(股票市场);外汇市场;金融衍生品市场n金融工具(FinancialInstruments):
存单,债券,股票,期货,期权,外汇,其它金融衍生品金融理论研究导论(三)n金融投资/实业投资的异同:
时间与风险(Risk);大自然与社会中其它经济个体n金融投资风险:
信用风险(Credit/DefaultRisk)与市场风险(PriceRisk);个体风险与系统风险n信用风险评级:
Standard&Poors;Moodys;Fitch;大公国际;BIS;银行业CAMELSn信用是现代金融/经济体系正常运转的基础:
次贷危机与美国经济复苏;中国进口铁矿石高价;诚以待人,信以立世(犹太人经商)金融理论研究导论(四)n金融格局/融资格局(FinancingPatterns):
银行贷款(20-80%),非银行贷款、债券(70-20%),股票(10%);美国-德国/日本(美国次贷危机);间接融资n金融市场有效运作的主要问题:
交易成本,信息成本;金融中介以(规模经济与专门技术)降低交易成本n信息不对称(InformationAsymmetry):
逆向选择(交易前),道德风险(交易后);次品车问题,委托代理问题(利益冲突);信息私人供应(搭便车问题),增加信息披露的政府监管,鉴别分析并集中管理风险的金融中介,合约中使用抵押品和净值,使用监督措施和限制性条款等金融理论研究专题AdvancedTopicsinFinancen基本概念(Concepts)n利率理论与汇率理论(Theories)n货币政策定义(Definitions)n解读货币政策(Goals,Targets,Instruments)n货币政策局限性(Constraints)n中国货币政策专题(Issues)References(参考文献)nPaulKrugmanandMauriceObstfeld:
InternationalEconomics:
TheoryandPolicies,HarperCollins,2003nRudigerDornbuschandStanleyFischer:
Macroeconomics,McGraw-Hill,1984nFrankFabozziandFrancoModigliani:
CapitalMarkets:
InstitutionsandInstruments,Prentice-Hall,1996nPeterRose:
MoneyandCapitalMarkets:
FinancialInstitutionsandInstrumentsinaGlobalMarketplace,McGraw-Hill,1997nPeterIsard:
ExchangeRateEconomics,CambridgeUniversityPress,1997n龚秀国:
龚秀国:
经济全球化与我国货币政策改革经济全球化与我国货币政策改革,四川大学出版社,四川大学出版社,2007FundamentalConcepts(A)nMoney:
moneyiswhateverisgenerallyacceptedinexchange;internationalmoney(worldmoney)inworldtradenFunctionsofMoney:
mediumofexchange;storeofvalue;unitofaccount;standardofdeferredpaymentnDemandofMoney:
precautionaryneeds;transactionneeds;speculationneeds(Keynesliquiditypreferencefunction)nSupplyofMoney:
centralbank;domesticbankingsystem(offshorebanking)FundamentalConcepts(B)nFunctionsofCentralBank:
controlofmoneysupply;stabilizationofmoneyandcapitalmarkets;lenderoflastresort;maintainingandimprovingthepaymentsmechanismnCreationofMoney:
throughborrowingandlendingthebankingsystemcreatesmoremoneyincirculationthancentralbankissues;moneymultipliernMoneyasanAsset:
costofmoney;financialassetsvis-visphysicalassetsInterestRateTheories
(1)nIrvingFischersClassicTheory:
savingsandinvestment;realinterestrate=nominalinterestrateinflationratenComments:
disposableincomeismoreimportantthaninterestrateindeterminingsavings;notonlybusinesses,butalsogovernmentsandconsumersneedmoney;longterminterestratetheoryInterestRateTheories
(2)nJohnKeynesLiquidityPreferenceTheory:
liquiditydemand;moneystockexogenousandcontrolledbycentralbank;shortterminterestratetheoryssddInterestRateTheories(3)nLoanableFundsTheory:
domesticsavings;publicdishoardingofexcessmoneybalances;creationofcreditbydomesticbankingsystemddssExchangeRateTheories
(1)nForeignExchangeMarkets:
spotmarket;forwardmarket;futuresmarket;optionsmarketnParticipants:
commercialbanks;brokers;traders;centralbanknJohnKeynesInterestParityTheory:
forwardpremium/discount=domesticinterestrateforeigninterestrateExchangeRateTheories
(2)nGustavCasselsPurchasingPowerParityTheory-LawofOnePrice-AbsolutePurchasingPowerParity(PPP)-RelativePurchasingPowerParity:
percentagechangeofequilibriumexchangerate=domesticinflationrateforeigninflationrateExchangeRateTheories(3)nDeterminantsofExchangeRate:
-interestrates-inflationrates-governmentspending-creditexpansion-balanceofpayments-expectationsMonetaryPolicy:
targetsandinstrumentsnDefinition:
monetaryauthoritycontrolsmoneysupplyanddomesticcredittoreachtargetsasdesiredbyeconomicgoalsnTargets:
moneysupply(M0,M1,M2,M3),interestrates(priceofcredit),andexchangerates(priceofforeignmoney)nInstruments:
reserverequirements,discountrate,openmarketoperations,centralbanksIOUs;moralsuasion,marginrequirements;generalandselectivecontrolsHowMonetaryPolicyAffectstheEconomy?
MonetaryPolicyInstrumentsInterestRatesSecurityPricesMoneySupplyExchangeRatesPublicExpectationsSizeandGrowthofPublicSpendingEconomicGoalsMoneySupplynCentralBanksBalanceSheet:
assetsandliabilities;sterilizationnMonetaryBase:
M0=Currencies+BanksDepositsatCentralBanknNarrowMoney:
M1=Currencies+BanksDemand(Checkable)DepositsnBroadMoney:
M2=M1+PublicSavingsGoalsforMonetaryPolicynPriceStability:
inflation(cost-push,demandpullandstructural);deflationnFullEmployment:
naturalunemploymentandinvoluntaryunemploymentnGrowth:
sustainableandcoordinatednBalance-of-Payments:
tradebalance,currentaccountbalance,basicbalanceandoverallbalanceConstraintsonMonetaryPolicynPolicyDilemmaandPolicyTrilemma:
ofthethreegoalsgovernmentsetsfre
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