产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译.docx
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产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译.docx
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产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译
本科毕业论文外文翻译
外文题目:
Industrialstructureandeconomicstability
出处:
Appliedeconomicletters
作者:
SherrillShaffer
原文:
Motivatedbypriorresultspredictingcontrastinglinkagesbetweenindustrialstructureandeconomicstability,wepresentexploratoryempiricalevidenceonthisimportantissue.Consistentwiththeturnoverhypothesis,wefindthatemploymentgrewmoresteadilywherebusinessestablishmentsinallsectorswerelarger,suggestinganoffsettingbenefittothefirst-momentcostsofestablishmentsizeidentifiedbypreviousresearch.Consistentwiththejob-matchinghypothesis,wefindthatemploymentgrewmoresteadilywheremoreestablishmentspercapitaoperatedinallsectors.Similarbutlessconsistentresultswerealsofoundregardingthestabilityofincomegrowth.
I.IntroductionandBackground
Thefundamentalimportanceofeconomicperformancehasspawnedanextensiveliteratureontheempiricaldeterminantsofeconomicgrowth(seeRajanandZingales,1998;Levineetal.,2000forprominentexamples).Onerecentdiscoveryisthatcommunitiesorlocalregionstendtoexperiencemorerapidgrowthofincomeoremploymentwherebusinessesaresmaller(Shaffer,2002,2006a,b).Aseparatestrandofresearch,meanwhile,hasdemonstratedtheimportanceofstudyingthevolatilityofgrowthratesratherthanmerelytheirmeans(RameyandRamey,1995;Kurz,2004;Ismihan,2005;Bekaertetal.,2006).Itisrelevantinthisregardthatseveralstudies(DavisandHaltiwanger,1992;Rob,1995;Davisetal.,1996)havefoundthatjobsatsmallerfirmstendtobelesspermanentthanatlargerfirms;whileIlmakunnasetal.(2005)havesuggestedthatsuchturnovermayactuallybeonereasonforfasterproductivitygrowth,anunexploredimplicationisthatthevolatilityofemploymentandincomemaybehigherwherebusinessesaresmaller(the‘turnoverhypothesis’).
Conversely,heterogeneityamongdecision-makersduetohumanfallibilitycanresultingreatervariabilityofeconomicperformanceinmorecentralizeddecisionprocesses(Sah,1991;SahandStiglitz,1991;AlmeidaandFerreira,2002),possiblysuggestingthatalocaleconomymayexhibitgreaterstabilitywheretheaveragefirmsaresmallerormorenumerous.Asimilaroutcomeispredictedtotheextentthat(a)centralizeddecisionprocessesarelesssuccessfulatmanagingconflictand(b)distributionalconflictsimpairefficientadjustmentstoexogenousshocks(Rodrik,1999;AlmeidaandFerreira,2002).
Inviewofthesecontrastingconsiderations,animportantempiricalquestioniswhetherestablishmentsizeandothermeasuresofindustrialstructuremaybesystematicallyassociatedwithsecondmomentmeasuresofeconomicperformance.
Thisarticleaccordinglypresentspreliminaryevidenceoflinkagesbetweenselectedmeasuresofindustrialstructureandthevolatilityoflocalincomeandemploymentgrowthrates.Weusethreemeasuresofindustrialstructure,eachdistinguishedbybroadsector.AsinShaffer(2002),wemeasureaverageestablishmentsizebynumberofemployeesand,alternatively,bydollarsofvalueadded,shipmentsorreceipts.Wealsolookatestablishmentspercapita,motivatedbytwoopposingconsiderations.Findinganewjobshouldbeeasierinamarketwithmoreemployersinagivensector,leadingtomorestablelevelsorgrowthratesofincomeandemployment(the‘job-matchinghypothesis’).But,ceterisparibus,smallerfirmswilltendtopermitthecoexistenceoflargernumbersoffirms,inwhichcasethedocumentedemploymentturnoveratsmallerfirms(discussedabove)willtendtooffsetthestabilizingbenefitofmorenumerousfirms.Eachofourmeasuresofindustrialstructureiscompiledseparatelyforthemanufacturing,wholesale,retailandservicesectors.
Werelatethesemeasuresofstructuretotwosecond-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,theSDofannualrealpercapitaincomegrowthratesandtheSDoftheannualgrowthrateoftotalestablishmentemployment.Theresultscontributetotwoseparatestrandsoftheliterature,onempiricalcovariateswithgrowthvolatilityandonmacroeconomiceffectsofestablishmentsizeandothermeasuresofindustrialstructure.Wefindforallsectorsthatlargerestablishmentsandmoreestablishmentspercapitaareassociatedwithmorestableemploymentgrowthrates,consistentwiththeturnoverandjob-matchinghypotheses.Thesamelinkagesarefoundforsomebutnotallofthesectorswithregardtothevolatilityofgrowthratesinrealpercapitaincome.
Thenextsectionintroducestheempiricalmodelandthesample.SectionIIIpresentstheresults,whileSectionIVconcludes.
II.TheModelandSample
Weembedourkeyvariablesinastandardlinearempiricalgrowthequation,
(1)
WhereYisameasureofeconomicperformanceasdiscussedabove,
isanestimatedinterceptterm,sisameasureofindustrialstructureasdiscussedabove,xisavectorofcontrolvariablesdiscussedbelow,
and
areestimatedcoefficientsand
isastochasticerrorterm.AsinBekaertetal.(2006),ourSDsofeconomicgrowthratesaremeasuredovera5-yearperiod.Asinpriorstudiesofeconomicgrowth,thecontrolvectorincludesthenaturallogarithmofpopulation,thedensityofpopulationpersquaremileoflandarea,ameasureofeducationandinitialmedianhouseholdincome.
PopulationisameasureofmarketsizeasinCetorelliandGambera(2001).ItisalsosimilartothetotallaborforcevariableusedinO’huallachainandSatterthwaite(1992)andcanbeinterpretedasmeasuringurbanizationeconomies.Ifjob-matchingoccursmorequicklyorefficientlyinmorepopulousareas,thentheestimatedcoefficientonthisvariableshouldbenegative(anotherimplicationofthejob-matchinghypothesisintroducedabove).
Populationdensityhasbeenfoundsignificantlyrelatedtoseveralfirst-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,possiblyduetoscaleeffectsortosuperiormatchingbetweenfirmsandworkersindensermarkets(CicconeandHall,1996;Anderssonetal.,2004;Carlinoetal.,2007;Strumskyetal.,2005).Ifthesebenefitsinfluenceeconomicstability,asonemightexpect,thentheestimatedcoefficientonpopulationdensityshouldbenegativeinourmodel.
Educationismeasuredasthepercentageofpopulationaged25andoverwhohavecompletedhighschool,andreflectstheaccumulatedlevelofhumancapital.ItissimilartomeasuresusedinpreviousstudiesofeconomicgrowthsuchasRajanandZingales(1998),Levineetal.(2000)andCetorelliandGambera(2001),withtheoreticallinkagestoaveragegrowthratesexploredbyTeles(2005).
Arelatedmeasureofeducationhasbeenusedinatleastonestudyofgrowthvolatility(Bekaertetal.,2006).Inaddition,educationwasfoundtobepositivelyassociatedwithsectoralemploymentgrowthinUSmetropolitanareasbyOhuallachainandSatterthwaite(1992).Ifeducationcontributestoeconomicstabilityaswell,itsestimatedcoefficientinourregressionsshouldbenegative.
Initialmedianhouseholdincomecanreflectaconvergenceeffectinfirst-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,asnotedbyBarroandSala-i-Martin(1992).Thesamelogicwouldnotapplytosecond-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,renderingthesignandsignificanceoftheestimatedcoefficientonthisvariableanopenempiricalquestion.However,asimilarvariable(initialpercapitaGDP)hasbeenusedinatleastonepriorstudyofgrowthvolatility(Bekaertetal.,2006).
Table1summarizesthedata.Oursamplecomprisesmorethan2000USnonmetropolitancounties,measuringeconomicperformanceduring1991–1995andstructuremeasuresasof1987.Metropolitanareasareexcludedbecausetheirbordersaregenerallynotcoterminouswithindividualcounties,confoundingmeasurementproblemsforvariablesdrawnfromcounty-leveldata.Thoughnotreportedinthetable,thepairwisecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenaverageestablishmentsizeandestablishmentspercapitarangedbetween-0.21and0.18,andwerejust-0.07inthewholesalesectorand0.07inthemanufacturingsector.Thesesmallandhighlyvariablecorrelationsindicatethatthetwocategoriesofstructurevariablesreflectstatisticallyseparatedimensionsofindustrialstructureinoursample.
Theselectionofperformancedataasofseveralyearsfollowingthestructuredatahelpstoreducethelikelihoodofreversecausalityalthough,commontoallempiricalgrowthstudies,causalitycannotbedefinitivelyestablished.Thislagstructurealsominimizesthepotentialforendogeneitybias,astheregressorsarepredetermined.
III.Results
Table2reportstheregressionestimatesfortheSDofrealpercapitaincomegrowthrates,whileTable3reportsestimatesfortheSDofemploymentgrowthrates.Asindustrialstructureismeasuredinthreewaysforeachoffoursectors,eachtablereports12regressions.Duetomissingorzeroestablishmentdataforafewcountiesineachsector,thevariousregressionsutilizeslightlydifferingnumbersofobservations,asreportedinthetables.ThesignificancelevelsarecomputedfromSEscorrectedforheteroscedasticity.
InTable2,thevariousstructuremeasuresarestatisticallysignificantineightofthe12regressions.Percapitaincomeisfoundtogrowmoresteadilywheremanufacturing,retailandwholesaleestablishmentsemploymoreworkers,orwherewholesaleestablishmentsarelargerasmeasuredbyvalueofannualshipments.Thesefindingsareconsistentwiththeturnoverhypothesisdiscussedabove.
Conversely,steadiergrowthisseenwherewholesaleestablishmentsemployfewerworkersorincountieswithfewerwholesaleestablishmentspercapitaormoremanufacturingestablishmentspercapita.Thecontrastingestimatesforthewholesalesectormayreflectnonl
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