marshall英文版.docx
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marshall英文版.docx
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marshall英文版
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00.00]Wellwelcometothis2007lectureseriesofAlfredMarshall.I'msurehewouldhaveagreed,andwewouldallagreethateconomicdevelopmentisoneofthemostimportantcontributorstohumanwelfareandofcourseoneoftheextraordinaryfeaturesofourtimehasbeentheremarkablegrowthoftheChineseeconomy.
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31.16]ItisthusagreathonourtohaveaverydistinguishedChineseeconomisttogivethe2007Marshalllectures,ProfessorJustinYifuLinisprofessorofeconomicsatPekingUniversity.
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48.08]He'sdirectoroftheChinacentreforEconomicResearchafteranunusualanddistinguishedmilitarycareer,hewenttostudypoliticaleconomyatPekingUniversity.
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00.09]HethenmovedontodoadoctorateinEconomicsattheFacultyofEconomicsinChicago,afacultynotnotedforit'sexpertiseinmarketsocialism.
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13.25]He'sgotaverydistinguishedrecordofpublicationintopjournalsandasubstantialnumberofbooks.
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22.27]ProfessorLinisasenioradvisertotheChinesegovernmentandtoanumberofChinesecitiesandanumberofChineseprovinces,aswellastheWorldBank.
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32.06]Oneofhisbookshasthetitle'ChinaMiracle'andwecouldn'thaveamoreauthoritativepersontotalktousaboutit.ProfessorLin'stitletodayis"DevelopmentandTransition,Idea,StrategyandViability"andit'sagreatprivilegetointroduceProfessorLintoyou.
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59.22]ThankyouverymuchfortheintroductionandI'dliketosayitisagreathonournotonlyso,it'sasurpriseformetobeinvitedtogivetheMarshalllectureheretodaybecausemorethan20yearsagoIwasastudentattheUniversityofChicagoandatthattimeBobLucaswasinvitedtogivethe1985MarshallLecturesandIhadtheopportunitytoobservehimmakingthepreparationfortheselectures.
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36.27]AtthattimeIdidnotexpectmyselftofollowinhisshoestogivethislecture
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43.10]IgotmyPhdfromtheUniversityinChicagoandIreturnedtoChinain1987,sothatwas20yearsagoandthemainreasonIreturnedtoChinawasbecauseIwantedtomakeacontributiontotheeconomicgrowthandtheeconomictransitioninChina.
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06.04]SointhepasttwentyyearsIhadtheopportunitytoobserveeconomicdevelopmentandeconomictransitioninpersonandalsotodoresearchonthesetwoareas.
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22.29]Sotodayi'dliketousethisopportunitytosharewithyoumyunderstandingofeconomicdevelopmentandtransition.
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33.10]Therearetwolecturesandsothefirstlecturewillmainlyfocusoneconomicdevelopmentandthelecturetomorrowwillfocusoneconomictransitions.
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47.00]AndIthinkthatweallknowit'safactbeforethemoderntimeallnationswereinrelativelybackwardstagesandinmostofthecountriestheirproductionwasmainlyagricultureandtheincomedifferencebetweentherichcountriesofthattimeandthepoorcountriesatthattimewasnotsolarge.
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12.24]Youknowitwasestimatedtobeabout30to40%inpercapitatermsatmost,butalsoatthattimewhencountrieslikeChinaandIndiathattheywereconsideredasadevelopingcountry,wereconsideredtobemorewealthierthanmanycountriesinWesternEurope
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37.06]andaftertheIndustrialRevolutioninthe18thcenturythingshappenedveryquickly,becausewecanseethattheincomegapstartedtoemergeandtodaytherichcountry'spercapitaincomewasabout30or40timeshigherthanthepercapitaincomeinthepoorcountriesandsocatchingupwiththedevelopedcountryissomekindofdreamforpeopleinthedevelopingworld.
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08.06]andaftertheSecondWorldWaralotofnationsinthedevelopingareasbecamepoliticallyandeconomicallyindependentsoundertheirrevolutionaryleaderstheystartedtoadoptcertainkindsofpolicytopursuethemodernisationandeconomicdevelopment.
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30.09]CertainlyafewcountriesdidsuceedforexampleJapanin1980sthepercapitaincomeexceededthatofBritain
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41.27]andthenewindustrialisedeconomieslikeTaiwan,Korea,HongKongandSingapore,theycaughtupveryquicklyandespeciallylikeSingaporeandHongKongtheirpercapitaincomeexceeedsthatofBritaininthe1980s;butmostothercountriesfailed,includingChinaasyoucanseethegapbecomeslargerandlarger.
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06.23]Sointhe1980sthedevelopingcountriesintheSocialistgroupandnon-SocialistgroupstartedtohavesomekindofreformandtransitionsandChinaandVietnamwereextremelysuccessful
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22.15]Aftertheystartedthetransitionintheearly1980stheymaintainedrapideconomicgrowthforexample,inthepastalmost30yearstheGDPgrossrateinChinawasabout9.8%peryear,continuouslyforthirtyyearsandwenowmaintainabout8GDPgrossrateinthepastthirtyyearsalso
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46.27]Andintheearly90stheEasternEuropeancountriesintheformerSovietUnionstartedtohavetheirtransition
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56.02]Atthattimemostpeoplehadalotofexpectation,thinkingthattheycouldhavesimilarrapideconomicgrowthasinChinaandVietnam.
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05.14]Howeverasyoucanseetheyencounteredeconomiccollapseandstagnation.
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11.06]AndrecentlytheEuropeanbankheldsurveysof29countriesincluding29,000householdsandabout70%oftheresponsesthinkthattheirlivingwasworsethan15yearsagobeforethetransitionstarted.
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33.16]AndsothequestionI'dliketoaskintheselecturesiswhydidJapanandEastAsianNIEssucceedintheireconomicdevelopmenttoctachupwiththedevelopedcountriesandmostothercountriesfailed?
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52.02]AndthesecondquestionI'dliketoaskwaswhydidChinaandVietnamhavethiseconomicgrowthbutmostothercountriesintheirreformandtransitionprocessdosopoorly?
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07.11]Andcertainlythisisaquestionthathasbeenaskedineconomics;likewhyaresomecountiressorichandothercountriessopoor?
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18.02]AnditactuallyisaquestionaskedbyAdamSmithabout200yearsago,andthensolikeBobLucashassaidinhisMarshalllectures,hesaidthattheconsequenceforhumanwelfare,involvedinquestionslikethisaresimplystaggering
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36.26]AndtherewasoneIthinkeconomistwhostartedtothinkeachlikethis,it'shardtothinkanythingelseandIthinkIhaveasimilarpositionlikeBobLucas.
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49.23]Andsoifwewanttounderstandhowcomethecountryhasdifferentperformanceindevelopmentintroductioncertainlyweneedtounderstandwhatdeterminedtheeconomicdevelopmentthesuccessandfailure
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05.23]Andeconomistsatfirstcertainlyproposedthatnaturalresourcesareveryimportant
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12.17]ifyouarerichinnaturalresourcesyoucanbeina(?
)developmentsomethinglikethatandthatisonereasonwhyChinahasaonechildpolicybecausewethinkwearearesourcepoorcountryandthatifourpopulationissolargethenwecannotberich.
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26.16]Howevernowadayspeoplethinkthatnaturalresourcesarenotimportantbecauseintherichcountries,inthedevelopedcountry,thenaturalresourcescontributeatmostabout5%oftheirnationalGDPs.
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41.25]Andsoeconomiststhinkthatmoreimportantthingsarelikephysicalcapitals,humancapitalsandtechnologies,howevertosaythatphysicalcapitals,humancapitalsandtechnologyarethecauseofeconomicdevelopmentisjustlikesayingrichpeoplehavealotofmoney.
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04.29]Certainlytheyhavealotofmoneybutthat'saconsequenceoftheirrichness,it'snotacauseoftheirrichness.
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12.24]Andsothat'sjustapproximatethecausesweneedtolookintosomethingmorefundamentalandaccordingtotheliteratureyouknowtherearecertaincompetinghypothesisandoneisluck.
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28.17]Inonetohavesomesortofmultipleequilibriumsandmaybesomecountrieshavelucktobeinagoodequilibriumandothercountrymaybetheyhavebadlucksotheyaretrappedinthebadequilibrium,sothat'soneexplanation.
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46.15]Andtheotherexplanationisgeography,ifyouareinalandlockedcountrythenyourtransportationcostswillbehigherandyoumaylagbehind
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57.20]Ifyouareintropicalareasthenyouknow,it'seasytohavesomekindofdiseaseandlifeexpectancyisshortandunderthatkindofsituationpeoplemaynotinvestineducationtoaccumulatehumancapitalsotheyarepoor,that'sanotherexplanation.
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14.10]Andthethridexplanationisinstitutionalbecausetheinstitutiondeterminestheincentiveorinvestmentofworkinacountry.
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25.00]Soifyouhavegoodinstitutionsthenpeopleworkharder,accumulatehumancapital,physicalcapitalandacquiretechnologysotheybecomerich.
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33.19]Andviceversa,ifyouhavebadinstitutionsthenpeopledonothavetheincentivetoworkandsotheyarepoor,that'soneexplanation.
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41.22]Andthefourthexplanationisculture.Youknowinsomecountries,iftheyhavesomekindoflongculture,longcivilisationsotheyhavegoodsocialcapacitiestoorganisethings,andsomeeconomiststhinkthatisthereasonwhysomecountriesdobetterthanothercountries.
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00.14]Andalsosomeculturesencouragetrustsoit'seasiertohavesomekindofbusinesstransactionandsoon.
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07.27]Sothat'sanothercausemaybe,forsomecountriesdoingbetterthantheothercountries
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12.04]Andthefifthhypothesisisopeness.Ifyoulookatallthedevelopedcountriestheyaremoreopen,andifacountryisinwardlookingtheyaregenerallypoor.
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25.04]Sosomeeconomiststhinkthattrade,globalisationisthekeyforthesuccessofanation.
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32.07]Wellnowadaysmosteconomiststhinkthatinstitutionisthemostimportantdeterminantbecauseifyouhavesomekindofmultipleequilbriumsituationthenit'shardtoimaginethatpeop
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