扩大货币供应量的途径分析Analysis of ways to enlarge the money supply.docx
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扩大货币供应量的途径分析Analysis of ways to enlarge the money supply.docx
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扩大货币供应量的途径分析Analysisofwaystoenlargethemoneysupply
扩大货币供应量的途径分析(Analysisofwaystoenlargethemoneysupply)
Analysisofwaystoenlargethemoneysupply
Abstract:
tosolvetheproblemofinsufficientaggregatedemand,itisnotenoughtorelysolelyonactivefiscalpolicy,anditisnecessarytomakemonetarypolicyplay
Moreimportantroleistoexpandthemoneysupply.Thereareonlytwowaystoexpandthemoneysupply:
Oneistoincreasethebasemoney,twoistoraisethemoneymultiplier,andatthesametimetoincreasethepaceofthefinancialsystemreform.
Keywords:
moneysupply;basicmoney;monetarymultiplier;approach
Since1999,thecentralgovernmenthasimplementedaproactivefiscalpolicytomaintainsteadygrowthinthemacroeconomy
However,therelativeinsufficiencyofaggregatedemandhasnotyetbeeneffectivelysolved
Whilethepolicyispositive,itisnecessarytomakemonetarypolicyplayamoreimportantroleandgivefullplaytomonetarypolicy
Theroleofeconomicgrowth.Asfarasmonetarypolicyisconcerned,animportantindicatoristhemoneysupply,
Recently,someexpertsandscholarscalledfortheexpansionofthemoneysupplyin2000,sothatthemoneysupply
Volumegrowthismaintainedatahighlevel,therebyprovidingprotectionforeconomicgrowth.Then,thewaytoexpandthemoneysupply
Where'sthepath?
Whatmeasuresshouldbetaken?
I.determinantsandanalysisofmoneysupply
Inthemodernmonetaryandbankingsystem,themoneysupplydependsontheaccumulationofthebasemoneyandthemoneymultiplier,
Onlywhenwemakeadetailedstudyofthebasemoneyandmoneymultipliercanweaccuratelygraspthetrendofthemoneysupply.
1.determinantsofmonetarybaseandempiricalanalysis
Thetheoryofmoneyandbankingshowsthatthebasemoneyconsistsofthecashincirculationandthesumofthereserveofthecommercialbank,
Itisthebasisforcreatingmoneysupply.Asaresultofourcountry'sspecialnationalconditions,thecentralbank'sbasecurrencyalsoincludesnon-
Depositsinthefinancialsector,sothedefinitionofbasemoneyinthisarticleis:
basemoney=issuemoney+gold
DepositsininstitutionalLiabilities+non-financialinstitutions(thedatausedbelowarefromtheChineseunlessotherwisespecified)
Quarterlystatisticsofpeople'sBankofChina).
Accordingtohistoricaldata,China'sbasiccurrencyisontherise.Basemoneybefore1990
Growthisslow,basicallyasmoothclimbphase:
after1993,basemoneygrewmore
Fast,especiallyin1993-1994,thebasemoneygrowthratewassignificantlyhigher,1995
-althoughvolatilein1996,itremainedatarelativelyhighlevel;in1997,basemoneygrowthaccelerated
Slow(ofcourse,thishassomethingtodowiththechangeofstatisticalcaliber,butthedownwardtrendisobvious),
In19991998_,cutandstatutoryreserveaccountanddepositaccountthestatutoryreserveratio
Afterthemerger,thedownwardtrendinbasemoneygrowthisevenmorepronounced.Intermsofthecompositionoftheunderlyingcurrency,thebasis
Thedeclineinmonetarygrowthwasmainlyduetoadeclineinthegrowthrateoffinancialinstitutions'liabilities.In1999,non-financialinstitutions
Thenegativegrowthofthedepositsalsohasacertainimpactonthegrowthofbasemoney.
Fromthebalancesheetofthecentralbank,thebasecurrencyisthecentralbank'sprincipaldebt,soinorderto
Toregulatethebasiccurrency,thecentralbankcanadjusttheassetsofeachprojecttoachieve.calendar
Historicaldatashowthat,before1993,China'stotalassetsofbanks,theproportionofforeignassetsofthecentralbank
Therefore,thechangesinbasemoneyduringtheperiodweremainlydeterminedbytheuseofthecentralbank'sdomesticassets.One
993-1994yearsistheturningpointofChina'seconomiccycle,brewingandaseriesof
Inthebeginningof1994,aseriesofreformoftaxsystemandforeignexchangemanagementsystemwerecarriedout,especially
ThemergeroftheRMBexchangerateandthereformofthesystemofsettlementandsaleofforeignexchangehavegreatlycontributedtothegrowthofexports
Alargesurplusofrecurringitemsintheinternationalbalanceofpayments,therebyincreasingtheproportionofforeignassetsofthecentralbank.
From1995to1997,inordertomaintaintherelativestabilityoftheRMBexchangerate,thecentralbank
Theproportionofproductionincreasedfurther,reaching42.1%attheendof1997.1998,dueto
TheimpactoftheAsianfinancialcrisis,China'sexportsituationisgrim,foreigntradesurplushasdecreased,soforeignassets
Theupwardtrendoftheproportionisslowing,andtheendoftheyearis43.7%.Itcanbesaidthatinrecentyears,thecentralbank's
Theassetstructureisalmostequaltotheassetsbothathomeandabroad,sotheamountofforeignassetsandthespeedofgrowtharethebasisforthegoods
Thecoinhasaveryimportantinfluence.Fromthegrowthrate,since1993,thecentralbank'snetforeignassets
Thegrowthrateshowedanobviousdownwardtrend,withthegrowthrateof1994,199,andSrespectively:
187.3%,
49.8%,43.4%,38.3%and2.5%.1999,1-9months,
Foreignnetassetsincreasedby10.4%,whichisalsothe3quarterof1999,themoneysupplyincreasedback
Literisanimportantfactor.
Fromthedomesticassets,before1994,domesticassetsaccountedformorethan80%ofthetotalassetsofthecentralbank,
Itcanbesaidthatfromtheassetpointofview,themainfactoraffectingthebasecurrencyisthechangeindomesticassets.
After1994,duetotheincreaseofforeignnetassets,theproportionofthecentralbank'sdomesticassetsdeclined
Bytheendof1998,domesticassetsaccountedfor56.6%ofthetotalassetsofthecentralbank.Domesticassets
Inthecentralbank,mainlyfordeposits,money,banks,claims,suchasin1993,deposits,money,bankclaims
70.3%ofthetotalassetsofthecentralbank,thengraduallydeclined,to41attheendof1998,8%;
Thereareothergovernmentdebt,thevalueoftotalassetsintheproportionofrelativelyhighbefore1994,1
994years,accountingfor9.1%ofthetotalassets,aftertheBankingActstipulatesthatthegovernmentmaynotoverdraftbanks
Thegovernmentdebthasbeenstableat158billion200millionyuan,theproportionofdeclining.Nonmonetaryfinancialmachine
Structuredclaims,before1997,accountedforasmallerproportionoftotalassets,after1997,duetopolicy
Asaresultofthedevelopmentofsexualbanking,thecreditor'srightsofnonmonetaryfinancialinstitutionshaveincreasedconsiderably,andtheirproportionhasrisensubstantially,
Bytheendof1998,9.5%.Fromthegrowthrate,thedomesticassetssince1996growthrate
Thesharpdeclinewasmainlyduetothedecreaseinthegrowthrateofdeposits,moneyandbankclaims,anddeclinedby1.1in1997
1%fellby9.1%in1998,comparedwith1in1999and10.25%inSeptember,
Correspondingly,domesticassetsincreasedby10.24%.Similarly,claimsonnon-financialsectorsare1995
Ithasbeenanegativegrowthsince2000andhashadanimpactonthegrowthofdomesticassets.Onthecontrary,fornongoods
Thegrowthofcreditor'srightsinfinancialinstitutionsreachedahighpointin1997,afteranincreaseof1660.7%
Despitethedeclineingrowth,butthegrowthrateofdomesticassetsisstillthefastest,in1998increasedby42.9
7%,in1999,1,September,anincreaseof16.9%,thedomesticassets,andthenincreasethebasemoney
Thelengthhasapositiveeffect.
2.,theinfluencefactorsandanalysisofcurrencymultiplier
Accordingtothedefinitionofthebasemoneymentionedabove,themonetarymultiplierofM2inChinachangedfrom1993to1997
Toomanyrules,thereareupsanddown,Mlmonetarymultiplierisbasicallyslightlydownwardtrend.Butsincethespringof1998
Afterthecentralbanksubstantiallyloweredthereserveratio,China'smonetarymultiplierisbasicallyontherise,thatis,Ml
Themoneymultiplierrosefrom1.104in1998Juneto1.42inSeptember1999
6,M2'scurrencymultiplierrosefrom3.094in1998JunetoSeptember1999
3.915.
Accordingtoourcountry,narrowmoneymultipliercanbeexpressedas:
(cashleakageratio+currentdepositratio)/
(statutoryreserveratio+reserverate+cashleakageratio+non-financialsectordepositratio);broadmoney
Thedenominatorofthemultiplierisconsistentwiththenarrowmoneymultiplier,whilethenumeratoris1+,thecashleakagerate.Accordingtothesetwoformulas,
WehavecalculatedthemonetarymultiplierinChinasince1993,andtheresultshowsthat
Theerrorofthesupplyandtheactualvalueofthebasecurrencyisverysmall(themeanerroris3%andverystable)
Thetrendisalsoconsistent.Therefore,itisnecessarytoanalyzetheabovebehavioralparametersinordertoanalyzethemonetarymultiplier
Judgment.
(1)legalreserveratio;
Theoretically,theadjustmentofthelegalreserverequirementrate,evenminorchanges,willaffectthecirculationofmoney
Haveastrongimpactonthewell-knowncentralbankmonetarypolicy"threemagicweapons",itseffectis
Themostviolent.Asaresult,countriesgenerallydonotusethismonetarypolicytoolingeneral,eveniftheyaretobeadjusted
Fine-tuning,becausethefinancialinstitutions,thehugesizeoffunds,andmoreimportantly,theroleofthemoneymultiplier,itisseveraltimes
Depositcreationloan.AlthoughChina'slegalreserveratiohasdroppedfrom13%to6%,but
Ontheonehand,itisstillrelativelyhighcomparedwithforeigncountries.Ontheotherhand,duetotheacceleratedprocessofnetworkingandglobalization,countries
Moreattentionispaidtotheindexofcapitaladequacy,whiletherequirement
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