50 great ideas for the 21st century.docx
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50 great ideas for the 21st century.docx
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50greatideasforthe21stcentury
50greatideasforthe21stcentury
Google,satellitenavigation,Equitrade,screw-topwine...theseinventionsandconceptswillchangeourlivesforever.Butwhatinspirestheircreators?
Tointroduceourround-upof50greatideasforthe21stcentury,StephenBayleyexaminesthehistoryandtheoryofhowsparksofgeniusareformed
Published:
06August2006
Whatwerethegreatideasofthelastcentury?
Arandomlistmightincludeabstractart,behaviourism,corporateidentity,automation,digitaltheory,futurism,theuncertaintyprinciple,Gestaltpsychology,industrialdesign,jetengines,fastfood,television,themarginalproductivitytheoryofwages,thehitparade,best-sellers,miniskirts,consumerism,modernism,cassettetapes,nudism,VAT,popandlinguistics.
Theseideasgrewinaworldwithfundamentaleconomicconvictions,namelythemass-productionandmass-consumptionofgoods.Buttheseassumptionsarefastchanging.ThosegoodsarenowcomingfromChinaandthegreatlegacymanufacturingcorporationsoftheWestaremostlyinaparlousstate.Inmanufacturing,theratesofchangearethemselveschanging.Oncecompanieswhichownedimportantpatents(Pilkington,XeroxorKodak)coulddominatetheirmarkets,butnowanythingcanbereverseengineered(ie,copied)inaGuangzhousweatshop.
Thingshappenquicklyand,withideas,speedisavirtuouscircle.Hewlett-Packardmakesthemajorityofitsearningsfromproductsthatdidn'texistlastyear.Oncethesimpleabilitytomanufactureguaranteedcompetitiveadvantage.That'snolongerso.Anythingcanbemadeanywhere;theworldisflat.Instead,theabilitytogenerateideashasreplacedmanufacturingastheengineoftheeconomy.
Asaresult,ourflattenedworldisdematerialising.Productionlineshavebeenreplacedbyasatelliteuplink;experiencesarebetterthanpossessions.OncemakingcarsandcomputersguaranteedtheWest'seconomicdominance,nowallwehavetosellisideas.
Butthisisnobadthingsincethevalueofmanufacturedgoodsisfallingandthevalueofideasisrising.Thebigquestionhasbecomewheredoideascomefromandhowcanwegetmoreofthem?
Absurdityseemstobedematerialisation'sbedfellow.Thetwomostsuccessfulbusinessbooksofrecentyears-JonasRidderstrale'sandKjellNordstrom'sFunkyBusinessandRobertSutton'sWeirdIdeasThatWork-haveacknowledgedthis,intheiridiosyncraticways.ApairofNordichipstersandabutton-downStanfordprofessormaymakeanincongruouscoupling,buttherereallyisnoescapingthezeitgeist.
Tohaveanyvalue,anewideamustbedisconcerting.BankerJPierpointMorgansaidtoAlexanderGrahamBell:
"MycolleaguesandIhaveseenanddiscussedyourinvention,butwehavedeterminedthereisnocommercialfutureforit."Hewasreferringtothetelephone.InPierpointMorgan'sday,whenyouweremakingsomuchmoneyoutofsteelorrailroads,whytakeapuntonawackycreativeidea?
TheBritish,ofcourse,havebeenspeciallyresistanttonewideas,exceptinareaswherenativeeccentricsproposedextraordinaryinnovationsinanswertoquestionsnoonehadasked.ChristopherCockerell'shovercraftorJamesDyson'svacuumcleanerswouldbeexamples.Cockerellinparticulardemonstrates,ifdemonstrationwereneeded,theBritishknackfordoinganunlikelythingratherwell...andthenlosingmoneyonit.Dysonis,ofcourse,quitetheopposite.
Peoplewithnewideastendtobebothillogicalandcontradictory.Explaininghisdiscoveryofrelativity,Einsteinsaid:
"Ijustignoredanaxiom."Nothingdefinescreativitybetterthantheabilitytodefeathabitbyoriginality.Thereseemstobeaphysiologicalsourcefornewideas.Wehave10billionbraincells,eachonecapableofmaking5,000connections,butitismakingunusualconnectionsthat'sabasisfornewideas.Butmostlyweareveryconservative:
asfarasfoodisconcerned,weeatonlyabout600oftheplanet'shundredsofthousandsofedibleplants.
TheabsurdelementinthequestforanewideawasbrilliantlydescribedbyMilesDaviesas"don'tplaywhat'sthere,playwhat'snotthere".ThisiswhatAkioMoritameantwhenhesaidSony'scontrariancompanyphilosophywas"doingwhatothersdidnot".Moritawasabusinessmancapableofextraordinarycreativeleaps.WhileWesternElectricsaidin1947therewerenocommercialapplicationsforthesemi-conductor,by1955MoritahadrealisedsuchwisdomwaswrongandSonybuilttheworld'sfirsttransistorradio.Hisbestidea,however,wasnottobethefatherofthetranny,buttoseethatTokyoTsushinKogyowasabitofamouthfulfordumbWesternerssohechangedittoSony-awordinspiredbytheLatinforsoundandamisunderstandingoftheaffectionateEnglishwordforamalechild.Anunusualconnection.
Newideasaresometimesatoddswiththesterndisciplinesofmanagement.The3MengineerresponsibleforthePost-itnoteabsurdlyrecalled:
"IfIknewwhatIwasdoing,itwouldnotberesearch."
TheICA(InstituteofCharteredAccountants)publishesaGuidetoProfessionalEthics,butmanyofitsrequirementspositivelyinhibitnewideas.Forinstance,theICAinsistsonintegritybywhichitmeansactionsuncorruptedbyselfinterestortruth.But,asPicasso-oneofthetrulyturbulentideasmen-said,greatartistsdon'tborrow,theysteal.TheICAinsistsonobjectivity,definedas:
"Thestateofmindwhichhasregardtoallconsiderationsrelevanttothetaskinhand,butnoother."Thatseemstoexcludethepossibilityofuninhibitedfree-thinking.TheICAinsistsoncompetence:
"Amembershouldundertakeprofessionalworkonlywherehehasthenecessarycompetencerequired."Thisinhibitsdaringinnovation.Risk-taking,toleranceoferror,areallnecessarytocreativity.Picassosaidofcompetence:
"IamalwaysdoingthatwhichIcannotdo,inorderthatImaylearnhowtodoit."AndwehaveLudwigWittgensteinversustheaccountancyprofessionwhenhesaid,"Ifpeopleneverdidsillythings,nothingintelligentwouldhappen."
Here'salistofhere-todaygone-tomorrowideasruefullyintendedtorevivemoribundindustries:
just-in-timemanufacturing,totalqualitymanagement,supply-chainmanagement,managementbyobjectives,businessprocessre-engineering,managementbywalkingaround,benchmarking,outsourcing,whatif,gateway,downsizing,flattening,evaluation,strategicalliancesandthefearfullysignificantbrainstorming.
Brainstormingneverworksbecauseideasarenotgeneratedsystematically,butabsurdly;ideasdonotrespectorfollowthedynamicsofaformalmeeting.BrainstormingwasinventedbyadmanAlexOsborninhis1950sbusinessbestsellerAppliedImagination.Butcreativepeopletendtobemoresolitary:
supportofothersnotneeded.Indeed,onetest(althoughnotaninfallibleone)forauthenticcreativityisthatsupportisrejectedandcriticismnotevenconsidered.Beethovenoncetoldagrumblingviolinisttoshutupandgetonwithitbecausehedidn'tcarewhatthemusicianthoughtand,inanycase,Godhadhelpedhimwritethatparticularunplayableline.
Isitevergoingtobepossibletoquantifythevalueofideas?
Thereisaninterestingprecedenthere.In1948,ClaudeShannonpublishedhis"MathematicalTheoryofCommunications"intheBellSystemsTechnicalJournal.HereShannonlaidthepracticalbasisforourdigitalrevolution.Hepopularisedtheword"entropy"(adaptedfromthermodynamics).Hedefinedthedifferencebetweensignalandnoise.Andhemadetheimportantdistinctionbetweenmeredata(measurements)andinformation(datawithvaluewhichaffectsbehaviour).Then,nottakingabreath,Shannonestablishedthebinarymathsthatmovedusfromanaloguetodigitalsystems.Theseparationofthemediumandthemessagewasanotherofhisproprietaryinsights.Thisdistinctionbetweenformandcontentallowedengineerstoconcentrateontechnology,freeingtherestofus.Inoneacademicpaper,Shannonestablishedthegeneralrulesofinformationtheoryandpredictedtheconvergenceofcomputersandphones.Shannonhadmorenewideasthanmostandtodemonstratehisresistancetoconventionhesaid:
"Ihadtoinventanymathsthatwasneeded."
Whenitcomestogeneratingideas,thedistinctionbetweenvisionarygeniusandaberrantbehaviourisnotalwaysclear.Cultureswhichencourageideasmustlearntotolerateerror.Mistakes,JamesJoycesaid,arethe"portalsofdiscovery".AccordingtoIBM'sThomasWatson,"Ifyouwanttosucceed,doubleyourfailurerate."SoichiroHondabelieved,"Successrepresentstheonepercentofyourworkwhichresultsfromthe99percentthatiscalledfailure."HenryFordsaid,"Failureistheopportunitytobeginagainmoreintelligently."
Wherethendoideascomefrom?
Porsche'schiefdesigneronceexplainedwhatinspiredhim.Hesaidmodernsculptureandanimalforms,gettingahighwhilerunning,basketballshoes,runningshoes,skiboots,sportsgearingeneral,thePeakTraminHongKong,theplasticsmellfromcarseatcovers,elevators,escalatorsandPatMetheny'salbumAsFallsWichitaSoFallsWichitaFalls.Thecreativepersonalitywhoislikelytogetanewideaalsoapprovesofintellectualtheft,enjoysseparation,benefitsfromisolationandencouragesdissent.Alltheseapparentlyanti-socialfactorshelptheimaginationtogrow(althoughhistorysuggeststhatdrinkanddrugshavealsoplayedapart).Misunderstandingisadefinitionofagenuinelynewidea.Onlyonethingiscertainaboutnewideas:
theirpatternscannotbeaccuratelypredicted.
AssoonasThackerayhadwrittensomethingthatpleasedhim,heaskedhimself(bemused),"HowdidIthinkofthat?
"JohannesBrahmsexplainedthatwhenhehadanewmusicalideahewouldleaveitaloneforawhi
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