产业结构变迁与测量全要素生产率增长外文翻译.docx
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产业结构变迁与测量全要素生产率增长外文翻译.docx
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产业结构变迁与测量全要素生产率增长外文翻译
产业结构变迁与测量全要素生产率增长外文翻译
本科毕业论文外文翻译
外文题目:
IndustrialStructureChangesandtheMeasurement
ofTotalFactorProductivityGrowth:
TheKrugman-Kim-Lau-YoungHypothesis出处:
Academiaeconomicpapers
作者:
Chi-YuanLiang
原文:
Keywords:
Totalfactorproductivity,Economicgrowth,Industrialstructurechanges,
Industrialpolicy,Taiwan,NIEs
JELclassification:
D24,O00,O11,O14,O40,O47,O49
ABSTRACT
Byconsideringtheeffectofindustrialstructuralchange,thispaperprovidesanewmethodologytomeasurethetotalfactorproductivityTFPofaneconomy.Themajorconclusionsareasfollows:
1IgnoringtheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangesunderestimatedtheTFPgrowthofthewholeeconomyofTaiwanby23.23percentfrom1961?
1980andoverestimatedtheTFPgrowthby23.94percentfrom1980?
1999.ItisthereforeimportanttoconsidertheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangestomeasuretheTFPgrowthcorrectly.2TheKrugman-Kim-Lau-Young“input-drivengrowth”hypothesisfortheNIEsiswithoutbasis,asdemonstratednotonlyinthisstudybutthatofLiang2002andYoung1994b.3Thefactorsthatexplaintheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangesfrom1970?
1999includegovernmentindustryandliberalizationpolicies.Moreover,thegovernmentplaysanimportantroleinpromotingsavingandinvestment.TheseconclusionsdifferwiththeargumentofferedbyKrugman1994ontheuselessnessofmacroandindustrypoliciesintheeconomicdevelopmentoftheNICs.
INTRODUCTION
BasinghisargumentontheempiricalresultsofferedbyKimandLau1994,Lau1995andYoung1994a,1994b,Krugman1994maintainedthatthesecretoftheeconomicmiracleinthefourNewlyIndustrializingEconomiesNIEs,i.e.Singapore,HongKong,Korea,andTaiwan,overthepastthreedecadeswasthe“input-drivengrowth.”Inotherwords,ithadlittletodowithTFPortechnicalchange,andmuchtodowiththerapidincreaseinfactorinputs.Hence,theeconomicmiraclecouldnotbesustainedowingtothelawofdiminishingreturns.Hereafter,werefertothisastheKrugman-Kim-Lau-YounghypothesisThepublicationofKrugman1994ignitedahotdebateamongdevelopmenteconomistsbecauseKrugman’sviewseemstobeverycounter-intuitive.AsFelipe1999aptlystated:
Itwaswidelybelievedthat.thehigh-performingAsianeconomieswerepartlyduetothecatch-upphenomenon,whichcouldbeattributedtothehighrateofthetechnologychangemadebythediffusionoftechnologyfromthemoreadvancedcountries.
AfterthepublicationbyKrugman1994,accordingtothelatestsurveydonebyFelipe2006,morethan70researchfindingswerepublishedandtookissuewiththeEastAsiantotalfactorproductivitygrowthhypothesis.ThecriticsofKrugman-Kim-Lau-YounghypothesismainlyfocusonthemethodologicalproblemandtheuselessnessofmacroandindustrypoliciestakenbyNIEs.TheexamplesofcritiquesonmethodologicalproblemsincludeNelsonandPack1999,Krugeretal.2000,Hsieh2002,Liang2002,LipseyandCarlaw2004,etc.
NelsonandPack1999andLipseyandCarlaw2004areskepticalonTFPmeasurementbyusingthegrowthaccountingtechnique.Krugeretal.2000employtheDataEnvelopmentAnalysisDEAmethodtomeasurerelativeefficiencychangeinsteadoftotalfactorproductivity.Employingadualapproach,Hsieh2002arguesthattheTFPgrowthratesforSingapore,Korea,HongKongandTaiwanaregreaterthanthecorrespondingratesthatYoung1994bobtained.Liang2001alsofoundasimilarresultforTaiwan.
ThecriticsoftheKrugman-Kim-Lau-YounghypothesisfromtheviewpointoftheuselessnessofmacroandindustrypoliciestakenbytheNIEsincludeLiang1995,Stiglitz2001,Liang2002andFelipe2006.
AccordingtoLiang2002,theapproachesemployedbyKimandLau1994andYoung1994a,1994bdiffer.KimandLau1994usetime-seriesandcross-sectionalpoolingdatatoestablishaninternationalproductionfunction.Young1994aperformsacross-sectionalregressionbasedonthegrowthofoutputperworkeronaconstantplusthegrowthofcapitalperworkerduring1970?
1985inordertomeasuretheresidualswhichhetreatsasTFPforatotalofsixty-sixcountries.AsYoung1994apointsout,“Thisprocedureisfraughtwitherror.Inparticular,sincetechnicalchangeinducescapitalaccumulation,thecoefficientforcapitalperworkerwilltendtooverstatetheelasticityofoutputwithrespecttothecapitalinput.”Inaddition,Young1994busesa“growthaccounting”approach,whichissimilartothatadoptedbyGollopandJorgenson1980andJorgensonetal.1987.
Themethodsofdatacompilationalsovary.KimandLau1994andYoung1994adonottakeintoconsiderationtheheterogeneouscharacteristicsofthefactorinputs.However,followingJorgensonandhisassociatesChristensenandJorgenson,1970;GollopandJorgenson,1980;Jorgensonetal.,1987,Young1994btakesintoaccounttheheterogeneouscharacteristicsoftheinputs,whichmighthelpavoidsomeofthemeasurementerrorsinrelationtoTFPchanges.ItisforthisreasonthatwefocusmainlyonYoung1994binthisstudy.
Moreover,Young1994b,justasGollopandJorgenson1980,Jorgensonetal.1987,ignorestheheterogeneouscharacteristicsofinputsbysector.Forexample,thenatureoflaborinputisdifferentforvariouscharacteristictypes,suchassex,age,educationetc.Asforcapitalinput,thenatureofbuildings,machinery,transportationequipment,landandinventoriesalsovary.Foraccuratemeasurementofthecontributionoffactorinputandchangesinproductivitytothegrowthofoutput,everyfactorinputshouldbefurtherdecomposedbeforebeingsummedbyusinganappropriateweight,suchasthetranslogindex.Thequalitychangesininputscausedbythechangesinindustrialstructureorthe“inputreallocationeffect”shouldbetakenintoaccountincalculatingtheTFPfortheeconomyasawhole.ThispaperthereforeemploystheapproachadoptedbyJorgensonandLiang1995,LiangandJorgenson1999andLiang2002byincorporatingthequalitychangesininputscausedbychangesinindustrialstructure,andtreatingthemasafurtherheterogeneouscharacteristicofinputsintheTFPcalculation.
Inaddition,asJorgensonandGriliches1967correctlypointedout,tomaintaintheoreticalconsistencyandavoidtheaggregationerror,theoutputshouldalsobedecomposedbeforebeingsummedupbyusingthetranslogindex.Ifthisoutputaggregationtechniqueistobeappliedtothewholeeconomy,thequalitychangesinoutputwithrespecttochangesintheindustrialstructure,orthe“outputreallocationeffect,”shouldalsobeconsidered.However,fewempiricalstudies,includingYoung1994b,LiangandJorgenson1999andLiang2002,haveactuallyperformedthisexerciseinmeasuringtheTFPgrowthforthewholeeconomyintheNIEs.
Tosumup,boththe“inputreallocationeffect”and“outputreallocationeffect”causedbychangesintheindustrialstructureshouldbeincorporatedintothemeasurementofTFPgrowthforthewholeeconomy.
Consequently,theobjectiveofthispaperistoincorporatethechangesinindustrialstructureintothemeasurementofTFPgrowthforaneconomy.ToreevaluatetheKrugman-Kim-Lau-Younghypothesis,acomparisonwithYoung1994bbothinmethodanddataisalsoconducted.Forthiscomparison,andalsoasanexample,weemploythedataforTaiwan,oneofthefourNIEs,duringthe1961?
1999periods.Finally,policyimplicationsfromTaiwan’sexperiencearedrawnfromthefinding.
Theremainderofthispaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2presentsthemethodology,Section3thecompilationofthedata,Section4theempiricalresults,andSection5theconclusionsandsuggestionsforfurtherresearch.
CONCLUSIONSANDIMPLICATIONS
ThispaperprovidesanewmethodologytomeasuretheTFPofaneconomy.Basedondetailedsector-leveldata,thisstudymeasurestheTFPofthewholeeconomyofTaiwanfrom1961?
1999byconsideringtheeffectofindustrialstructurechange.Themajorconclusionsarethefollowings.
First,theTFPgrowthwithindustrialstructurechangesadjustmentregistered2.03percentperannumand2.37percentperannumduring1961?
1980and1980?
1999respectively.
Incontrast,theTFPgrowthwithoutindustrialstructuralchangesadjustmentwas1.55percentand2.94percentperannum.Inotherwords,ignoringtheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangesunderestimatedtheTFPgrowthofthewholeeconomyby23.23percentfrom1961?
1980,whileitoverestimatedTFPgrowthby23.94percentfrom1980?
1999.ItisthereforeimportanttoconsidertheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangestomeasureTFPgrowthcorrectly.TheTFPgrowthratedifferencerevealedbetweenthisstudyandYoung1994bduetomethodologyvariedfrom1.68percentagepoints1966?
1970to?
0.77percentpointduring1980?
1990.Thatduetodatadifferencerangesfrom0.65percentagepointduring1980?
1990to?
2.25percentagepointduring1966?
1970.ItisbelievedthatourdataaremoreaccuratethanthatpostedbyYoung1994a,1994b.
Second,duringthelasttwodecades1980?
1999,TFPwasthesecondmostimportantsourceofGDPgrowth,withacontributionratioof32.76percent.Thatislowerthanthecontributionofcapital45.88percent,buthigherthanthatoflabor21.35percent.TherelativecontributionratioofTFPtoGDPgrowthwas46.87percentduring1980?
1990accordingtothisstudy,whichwasgreaterthanthatofcapital38.45percentandlabor16.48percent.Bycontrast,accordingtoYoung1994b,therelativecontributionratioofTFPtoGDPgrowthwas41.25percent,whichwasalsogreaterthanthatofcapital28.56percentandlabor29.49percentduringthesameperiod.TheKrugman-Kim-Lau-Younghypothesis,whichindicatesthatthefastgrowthof
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- 关 键 词:
- 产业结构 变迁 测量 要素 生产率 增长 外文 翻译
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