Unit7Supporting Science.docx
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Unit7Supporting Science.docx
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Unit7SupportingScience
Unit7SupportingScience。
1.Thetwilightofthe20thcenturyisanageofenormoustechnologicalchange.Everydaybringsnewexamplesofadvancesincomputing,communications,andbiotechnologythatchangethewaywelive,andthewaywelookattheworld.Economicallyspeaking,technologycompaniesfoundedinjustthelast30yearshavecreatedanaggregatecapitalvalueofclosetoatrilliondollars,makingtechnologyamajorenginedrivingtheU.S.economy.
2.Giventhistremendoussuccess,onemightexpectthatbasicsciencewouldreceivecommensuratesupport.Sadly,thisisnotthecase,andindeedalmosttheoppositeseemstobeoccurring.Basicresearchwithinindustryisnolongerfashionable--thegreatcorporatelabsofthepastfewdecadeshavebeensubjecttocutsinfundingandcorporatebreakups.Thosethatremainareoftendownsized,orhaveturnedawayfromthechallengeofprofounddiscoveryandtowardimmediateapplication.Thistrenddoesnotcomeonlyfromtheboardroom--somesciencewritersgoevenfartherandpronouncebasicsciencedeadaltogether,anobservationgivenintellectualbackingbyresearchers,whodocumentthedeclineofunfetteredresearch.
3.Investingtimeandmoneyintoappliedresearchandproductdevelopmentisimportant,andthechallengeofreducingknowledgetopracticalapplicationsintheformofaproductisanintellectuallysatisfyingpursuitandanobviousnecessitytoindustry.Icouldhardlythinkotherwise,becauseIspendafairamountofmyowntimeinappliedresearch.Buttechnologicalprogresscannotcontinuewithouttheinputofbasicresearchandtheconceptualbreakthroughsitmakespossible.Inordertoreduceknowledgetopractice,onemusthavetheknowledgeinthefirstplace.Scienceistherawmaterialthatappliedresearchandengineeringrefineintotheirproducts.
4.Whileoldercompaniescutbackonresearch,youngercompanies,bornofthecurrenttechnologicalrevolution,simplyignoreit.Apartfromahandfulofexceptions,thenewtechnologicalcompaniesintheSiliconValleymolddonotinvestinlong-rangeresearch.Start-upcompaniescannotaffordit,andthosewellpastthestart-upstagemayhavetheresources,butarenotinclinedtousethemforbasicresearch.Anironicexampleisthepersonalcomputerrevolution,whichwasbasedonresearchdoneinindustriallabs,notablytheXeroxPaloAltoResearchCenter(PARC).Despitethisundeniableorigin,personalcomputercompanieshavenotsoughttorenewthesourceoftheirsuccess.Indeed,itiswidelyacceptedinbusinesscirclesthatlabslikeXeroxPARCareamistakebecauseXeroxfailedtocapitalizeonitsinventionofthepersonalcomputer.XeroxresearchersinventedthelaserprinteratPARCduringthesametimeperiod,andtheprofitsfromlaserprintingandotherinventionsthattheydidcapitalizeonhavemorethanrepaidtheirinvestmentinresearch.Despitethis,theXeroxstoryhasgiventhefoesofresearchareadyrationalizationfornotfundingscience.
5.Atthegovernmentlevelsciencehasnotbeenrecognizedasthewellspringofthetechnologymiracle,andasaconsequencesupportiscut,orworse,issubjectedtoaprotracteddissectionandreviewtoseeifitis"relevant"toshort-termeconomicgoals.Thisputsgovernmentfundingbodiesintheawkwardpositionofsecond-guessingboththeresearchandthemarketplace.Defense-relatedfundshavetraditionallysupportedawiderangeoflong-termresearch.Forexample,thelnternet,surelyoneofthemostdynamicbusinessandsocialdevelopmentsofthedecade,sprungfromARPANET,anetworksupportedforaquartercenturybydefensefundingbeforeitblossomedintothelnternetasweknowittoday.Alesspatientsourcemighthavecutthesupport;wherewouldtheNetbetodayiftheyhad?
WiththeendoftheColdWarthesedefense-relatedfundshavedroppeddramaticallyinmanyfields,peacehasnotbeengoodforscience.
6.Scientificresearchisbynatureanuncertainundertaking.Likeanyexploratoryprocess,itisnotpossibletopredictwhatonewillfindorwhatitseventualutilitymightbe.Thatisthewholepointofresearch--investigatingwhatwedonotknow.Inotherwalksoflifewehavecometogripswiththenotionofstochasticphenomenathatarenotindividuallypredictable,butcanbetackledasagroup.Mutualfundmanagersdonotexpecteveryinvestmenttohavethesamereturn,nordoactuariesexpecteverypersontolivepreciselytothelifeexpectancy.Thewholepointofamutualfundoraninsurancecompany,istocreateaportfolioofunpredictableentitiesthatintheaggregateyieldtostatisticalprediction.Givenasufficientlylargeportfolioofresearchprojects,andenoughtimetobringthemtofruition,thetrackrecordisclear:
Scienceisatremendous,andverypredictableinvestment.
7.Yetthisisnothowscienceisviewedbythosewhofunditingovernmentorindustry.Theprojectsaresubjectedtoascrutinywhollyinappropriatetotheirnature.Themostreliablewaytogetresearchfundsistopredicttheresearchresultsupfront,toguaranteelowriskoffailure,andtopresentaclearandcertainpathfromresultstogreatcommercialutility.Thetroubleisthataresearchproposalthatmeetsthosecriteria,andmeetstheadditionalburdenofbeingreadilyunderstandablebyacongressmanorfundingofficial,isalmostcertainlynotworthdoing--atleastasbasicresearch.Itisrareforambitiousbasicresearchtomakeitthroughthegauntletofsecond-guessing.Well-intentionedconservatismcanevisceratetheveryessenceofwhatscienceisabout.Thisisparticularlytrueofthetrendtoward"relevant"researchaimedatnear-termapplication.Appliedworkcanbeveryvaluable,butalltoooftenwhattheprocessselectsistimidresearch--anawkwardhybridthatisneithergoodsciencenorgoodproductdevelopment.
8.Thereisnouselessresearch.Manydiscoveriesreachtheirfullpotential,givenenoughtime.Insomecasesthispotentialisadirectcommercialreward;inotherstherewardsareintellectual:
Newvistasareopenedandnewavenuesforinquiryinspired,andnomatterhow"pure"anareaofresearch,theoddsarethatitwilleventuallycontributetoourunderstandingofotheraspectsofscience--oreventoeverydaylife--inwaysthateventheresearchercannotalwayspredict.TheBritishmathematicianG.W.Hardyopinedthathisworkinnumbertheoryandcomplexanalysiswouldbeforeveruseless,yettodaycomplexanalysisiscentraltomodernengineering,andnumbertheoryisthebasisofcodingtheoryandcryptography.
9.Myfavoriteexampleofunexpectedutilityisdinosaurpaleontology.Whatcouldbemoreuselessthanstudyingtheseextinctgiants?
Recentworkonthemysteriousextinctionofthedinosaurshasbuiltacrediblecasethattheirdemisewascausedbytheimpactofanasteroidorcomet.Althoughthisexplanationremainscontroversyamongexpertsinthefield,theinquiryhassparkedtherealizationthatafutureimpactbyanear-earthasteroidcouldkillmillionsofpeople,destroycivilization,orevendriveourspeciestoextinction.Activeresearchisnowfocusedonthisthreatandontechnologicalmeanstoavoidit.Itisthusentirelypossiblethatthe"useless"studyofdinosaursmightsomeday,decadesorevencenturiesfromnow,leadtosavingthehumanrace.
10.Meanwhile,theentirecostoffundingdinosaurpaleontology,fromitsinceptionin1841tothepresent,islessthantheproductioncostofthefilmJurassicPark.Paradoxeslikethisabound.Defensespendingatsomelevelissurelyneededinthisdangerousworld,butconsiderthatcancerkillsahalfmillionAmericanseveryyear--morethanwerekilledinbothworldwarscombined.Ifaforeignenemyinflictedthosecasualties,wewouldbeupinarms.Nevertheless,researchspendingisonlyabout1to2percentofwhatisspentonthedefensebudget.Cansuchprioritiesreallybecorrect?
Considerfurtherthatdramaticadvancesingeneticsandcancerresearchsuggestthatcuresforcancerandmanyotherdiseasesarewithinourgrasp--perhapswithinthenextdecadeatthecurrentrateofresearchadvances.Yetinthatinterveningtime5millionpeoplewilldieprematurely.Woulditnotmakesensetospendanotherpercentorsotoacceleratethecureandsavethem?
11.Ifoneaskedbusinessexecutiveswhetheracompanythatmightnotbearoundinayearortwoshoulddolong-rangeresearch,theanswerwouldbearesoundingno,andrightlyso.However,theconverseofthisargumentisequallytrue--atechnologicalcompanythatexpectstosurviveandthrivedecadeshenceislosingmoneyandopportunityifitdoesnothavelong-rangeresearchprograms.
12.Thesameholdstrueforgovernmentsorsocietiesasawhole.Eventhemostfiscallyconservativepoliticianshouldrealizethatsupportingsciencemakesmoneyandbringstangiblenon-monetarybenefits.Thetechnologicalnatureofthemodernworldhasmovedsupportforsciencefroma"wanttohave"squarelyintothe"needtohave"column.Onecannotexpectcorporateshareholderstosupportallfundamentalresearchbecausesomeofitmaytake50to100yearstobeapplied,andbythentaxlawsandotheruncertaintiesmakeitunlikelythattoday'sshareholderswillbethedirectbeneficiaries.Agovernment,ontheotherhand,shouldconsiderthelongertimescalesandmakeinvestmentsaccordingly.
13.Asasocietyweareshirkingoursupportforbasicscienceattheverytimewhenourprevioussupportisreapinggreatreturns.Indoingso,wejeopardizenotonlyourlegacyofscientificachievement,butalsotheeconomicprosperityofthenearfuture.Itisclearthatwecanaffordtospendmoreonscience.Itisalsoclearthatweneedtospendmoreifwewanttocontinuetoenj
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