交易为生.docx
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交易为生.docx
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交易为生
Chartistsstudymarketaction,tryingtoidentifyrecurrentpricepatterns.
Theirgoalistoprofitfromtradingwhenpatternsrecur.Mostchartistswork
withbargraphsshowinghigh,low,andclosingpricesandvolume.Some
alsowatchopeningpricesandopeninterest.Point-and-figurechartiststrack
onlypricechangesandignoretime,volume,andopeninterest.
Classicalchartingrequiresonlyapencilandpaper.Itappealstovisually
orientedpeople.Thosewhoplotdatabyhandoftendevelopaphysicalfeel
forprices.Computersspeedchartingatacostoflosingsomeofthatfeel.
Thebiggestprobleminchartingiswishfulthinking.Tradersoftenconvince
themselvesthatapatternisbullishorbearishdependingonwhether
theywanttobuyortosell.
EarlyinthiscenturyHermanRorschach,aSwisspsychiatrist,designeda
testforexploringaperson'smind.Hedroppedinkon10sheetsofpaperand
foldedeachinhalf,creatingasymmetricalinkblot.Mostpeoplewhopeerat
thesesheetsdescribewhattheysee:
partsoftheanatomy,animals,buildings,
andsoon.Inreality,thereareonlyinkblots!
Eachpersonseeswhat'sonhis
mind.MosttradersusechartsasagiantRorschachtest.Theyprojecttheir
hopes,fears,andfantasiesontothecharts.
BriefHistory
ThefirstchartistsintheUnitedStatesappearedattheturnofthecentury.
TheyincludedCharlesDow,theauthorofafamousstockmarkettheory,and
WilliamHamilton,whosucceededDowastheeditoroftheWallStreet
Journal.Dow'sfamousmaximwas"Theaveragesdiscounteverything."He
meantthatchangesintheDowJonesIndustrialandRailAveragesreflected
allknowledgeandhopesabouttheeconomyandthestockmarket.
Downeverwroteabook,onlytheWallStreetJournaleditorials.
HamiltontookoverthejobafterDowdiedandstruckablowforcharting
whenhewrote"TheTurnoftheTide,"aneditorialfollowingthe1929crash.
HamiltonlaidouttheprinciplesofDowtheoryinhisbook,TheStock
MarketBarometer.RobertRhea,anewsletterpublisher,broughtthetheory
toitspinnacleinhis1932book,TheDowTheory.
Thedecadeofthe1930swastheGoldenAgeofcharting.Manyinnovators
foundthemselveswithtimeontheirhandsafterthecrashof1929.Schabaker,
Rhea,Elliott,Wyckoff,Gann,andotherspublishedtheirresearchduringthat
decade.Theirworkwentintwodistinctdirections.Some,suchasWyckoff
andSchabaker,sawchartsasagraphicrecordofsupplyanddemandinthe
markets.Others,suchasElliottandGann,searchedforaperfectorderinthe
markets-afascinatingbutfutileundertaking(seeSection6).
In1948,Edwards(whowasason-in-lawofSchabaker)andMageepublished
TechnicalAnalysisofStockTrends.Theypopularizedsuchconcepts
astriangles,rectangles,head-and-shoulders,andotherchartformations,as
wellassupportandresistanceandtrendlines.Otherchartistshaveapplied
theseconceptstocommodities.
MarketshavechangedagreatdealsincethedaysofEdwardsandMagee.
Inthe1940s,dailyvolumeofanactivestockontheNewYorkStock
Exchangewasonlyseveralhundredshares,whileinthe1990sitoften
exceedsamillion.Thebalanceofpowerinthestockmarkethasshiftedin
favorofbulls.Earlychartistswrotethatstockmarkettopsweresharpand
fast,whilebottomstookalongtimetodevelop.Thatwastrueintheirdeflationary
era,buttheoppositehasbeentruesincethe1950s.Nowbottoms
tendtoformquicklywhiletopstendtotakelonger.
TheMeaningofaBarChart
Chartpatternsreflectthetidesofgreedandfearamongtraders.Thisbook
focusesondailycharts,butyoucanapplymanyofitsprinciplestoother
data.Therulesforreadingweekly,daily,hourly,orintradaychartsarevery
similar.
Eachpriceisamomentaryconsensusofvalueofallmarketparticipantsexpressedinaction.Eachpricebarprovidesseveralpiecesofinformationaboutthebalanceofpowerbetweenbullsandbears.
Theopeningpriceofadailyoraweeklybarusuallyreflectstheamateurs'
opinionofvalue.Theyreadmorningpapers,findoutwhathappened
thedaybefore,andcalltheirbrokerswithordersbeforegoingtowork.
Amateursareespeciallyactiveearlyinthedayandearlyintheweek.
Traderswhoresearchedtherelationshipbetweenopeningandclosingprices
forseveraldecadesfoundthatopeningpricesmostoftenoccurnearthehighor
thelowofthedailybars.Buyingorsellingbyamateursearlyinthedaycreates
anemotionalextremefromwhichpricesrecoillaterintheday.
Inbullmarkets,pricesoftenmaketheirlowfortheweekonMondayor
Tuesdayonprofittakingbyamateurs,thenrallytoanewhighonThursday
orFriday.Inbearmarkets,thehighfortheweekisoftensetonMondayor
Tuesday,withanewlowtowardtheendoftheweek,onThursdayorFriday.
Theclosingpricesofdailyandweeklybarstendtoreflecttheactionsof
professionaltraders.Theywatchthemarketsthroughouttheday,respondto
changes,andbecomeespeciallyactiveneartheclose.Manyofthemtake
profitsatthattimetoavoidcarryingtradesovernight.
Professionalsasagroupusuallytradeagainsttheamateurs.Theytendto
buyloweropenings,sellshorthigheropenings,andunwindtheirpositionsas
thedaygoeson.Tradersneedtopayattentiontotherelationshipbetween
openingandclosingprices.Ifpricesclosedhigherthantheyopened,then
marketprofessionalswereprobablymorebullishthanamateurs.Ifprices
closedlowerthantheyopened,thenmarketprofessionalswereprobably
morebearishthanamateurs.Itpaystotradewiththeprofessionalsand
againsttheamateurs.
Thehighofeachbarrepresentsthemaximumpowerofbullsduringthat
bar.Bullsmakemoneywhenpricesgoup.Theirbuyingpushesprices
higher,andeveryuptickaddstotheirprofits.Finally,bullsreachapoint
wheretheycannotliftprices-notevenbyonemoretick.Thehighofadaily
barrepresentsthemaximumpowerofbullsduringtheday,andthehighofa
weeklybarmarksthemaximumpowerofbullsduringtheweek;thehighof
a5-minutebarreflectsthemaximumpowerofbullsduringthat5-minute
period.Thehighestpointofabarrepresentsthemaximumpowerofbulls
duringthatbar.
Thelowofeachbarrepresentsthemaximumpowerofbearsduringthat
bar.Bearsmakemoneywhenpricesgodown.Theykeepsellingshort,their
sellingpushespriceslower,andeverydowntickaddstotheirprofits.At
somepointtheyrunoutofeithercapitalorenthusiasm,andpricesstop
falling.Thelowofeachbarshowsthemaximumpowerofbearsduringthat
bar.Thelowofadailybarmarksthemaximumpowerofbearsduringthat
day,andthelowofaweeklybaridentifiesthemaximumpowerofbearsduring
thatweek.
Theclosingtickofeachbarrevealstheoutcomeofabattlebetween
bullsandbearsduringthatbar.Ifpricesclosenearthehighofthedailybar,
itshowsthatbullswontheday'sbattle.Ifpricesclosenearthelowofthe
day,itshowsthatbearswontheday.Closingpricesondailychartsofthe
futuresmarketsareespeciallyimportant.Theamountofmoneyinyour
accountdependsonthembecauseyouraccountequityis"markedtomarket"
eachnight.
Thedistancebetweenthehighandthelowofanybarrevealstheinten18.
sityofconflictbetweenbullsandbears.Anaveragebarmarksarelatively
coolmarket.Abarthatisonlyhalfaslongasaveragerevealsasleepy,disinterested
market.Abarthatistwotimestallerthanaverageshowsaboiling
marketwherebullsandbearsbattlealloverthefield.
Slippage(seeSection3)isusuallylowerinquietmarkets.Itpaystoenter
yourtradesduringshortornormalbars.Tallbarsaregoodfortakingprofits.
Tryingtoputonapositionwhenthemarketisrunningislikejumpingona
movingtrain.Itisbettertowaitforthenextone.
JapaneseCandlesticks
Japanesericetradersbeganusingcandlestickchartssometwocenturies
beforethefirstchartistsappearedinAmerica.Insteadofbars,thesecharts
haverowsofcandleswithwicksatbothends.Thebodyofeachcandlerep
resentsthedistancebetweentheopeningandclosingprices.Iftheclosing
priceishigherthantheopening,thebodyiswhite.Iftheclosingpriceis
lower,thebodyisblack.
Thetipoftheupperwickrepresentsthehighoftheday,andthebottomof
thelowerwickrepresentsthelowoftheday.TheJapaneseconsiderhighsand
lowsrelativelyunimportant,accordingtoSteveNison,authorofJapanese
CandlestickChartingTechniques.Theyfocusontherelationshipbetween
openingandclosingpricesandonpatternsthatincludeseveralcandles.
Themainadvantageofacandlestickchartisitsfocusonthestruggle
betweenamateurswhocontrolopeningsandprofessionalswhocontrolclosings.
Unfortunately,mostcandlestickchartistsfailtousemanytoolsof
Westemanalysts.Theyignorevolumeandhavenotrendlinesortechnical
indicators.ThesegapsarebeingfilledbymodemAmericananalystssuchas
GregMorris,whoseCandlepowersoftwarecombinesWesterntechnical
indicatorswithclassicalcandlestickpatterns.
MarketProfile
Thischartingtechniquefortrackingaccumulationanddistributionduring
eachtradingsessionwasdevelopedbyJ.PeterSteidlmayer.MarketProfile
requiresaccesstoreal-timedata-aconstantflowofquotesthroughoutthe
day.Itassignsoneletterofthealphabettoeachhalf-houroftrading.Each
pricelevelreachedduringthathalf-hourismarkedwithitsownletter.
Aspriceschange,moreandmorelettersfillthescreen,creatingabell74
CLASSICALCHARTANALYSIS
shapedcurve.Whenpriceseruptinatrend,MarketProfilereflectsthatby
becomingelongated.MarketProfileissometimescombinedwithLiq
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