《人民币升值对中国出口型企业的影响及对策》中英文.docx
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《人民币升值对中国出口型企业的影响及对策》中英文.docx
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《人民币升值对中国出口型企业的影响及对策》中英文
TheImpactandCountermeasuresofRMBAppreciationonExport-BasedEnterprisesinChina
MinYuan
SchoolofEconomics,TianjinPolytechnicUniversity
Tianjin300387,China
E-mail:
wuna0915.student@sina
ZhuangZhou
SchoolofEconomics,TianjinPolytechnicUniversity
Tianjin300387,China
E-mail:
zhouzhuang@tjpu.edu
Abstract
RMBappreciationwillposeachallengetoexport-basedenterprisesinChina,andbringasenseofcrisistothem.Therefore,China'sexportenterprisesshouldtakeactivemeasurestodealwiththeimpactcausedbytheRMBappreciation,sothatexport-orientedenterprisescanbetteradapttothechangesintheglobaleconomy,thusmaterializingtheirsustainableandstabledevelopment.
Keywords:
RMBappreciation,Export-basedindustries,Prosandcons,Countermeasures
TheappreciationoftheRMBhasbecomemuch-discussedfocusintheinternationaleconomyandsociety.Chinahasbeguntoimplementthemanagedfloatingexchangeratesystembasedonmarketsupplyanddemand,withreferencetoabasketofcurrencies.RMBexchangerateisnolongerpeggedonlytotheU.S.dollar,andinsteadChinahasformulatedamoreflexibleRMBexchangeratemechanism.RMBappreciationwillposeachallengetoexport-basedenterprisesinChina,andbringasenseofcrisistothem.Therefore,China'sexportenterprisesshouldtakeactive
measurestodealwiththeimpactcausedbytherisingYuan,sothatexport-orientedenterprisescanbetteradapttothechangesintheglobaleconomy,thusmaterializingtheirsustainableandstabledevelopment.
InJune,2021,theexchangerateofRMBagainsttheU.S.dollarexceededthe7:
1boundary.ThetrendofaYuan’sriseisforeseeable,andintheirreversibleenvironment,wemusttakeappropriatestepstopreventlargefluctuationsinRMBtomitigateitsnegativeimpactontheimportandexporttrade,whileatthesametimemakingfulluseofthesmallriseinyuantopromotetradedevelopment.Yuan’sriseisnotonlyconducivetoadecreaseinimportcostsanddomesticinflation,stimulationtoconsumption,accelerationofstructuraladjustment,promotionofforeigninvestmentandthereductionintradefriction,butintheshorttermwillalsohaveanegativeimpactonexports,influencingforeigninvestmentandemployment.
1.MajorindustriesdamagedbyandbenefitingfromYuan’srise
TheimpactofaYuan’sriseonvariouskindsofsectorsvariesaccordingtothedifferentcharacteristicsofindustries.RMBappreciationbringsadvantagestotheindustriesthatneedtoimportrawmaterials,butisnotfavorabletoonesthatareexport-oriented.Italsobringsopportunitiestotheupgradeandoptimizationoftheseindustries,thoughcertainindustrieswillbeadverselyaffectedbyit.
ThemainindustriesbenefitingfromYuan’sriseareasfollows:
(1)realestateandinfrastructureones,whichbelongtothenon-realestateindustry,withitsdomesticrealestatevaluecomprehensivelyenhancedbyariseinYuan;
(2)onessuchinfrastructureindustriesasairports,ports,railways,andhighwayscharacterizedbylimitedresources,monopoly,thelongconstructionperiod,andsmallsupplyelasticity;(3)thefinancialsector,especiallybankingandsecurities,whichisamongcapital-intensiveindustriesdealingwithcurrenciesandcapital.Becauseofgoodliquidity,itiscategorizedintotheindustrywithahighvalueofRMBassets,benefitingfromattractingalargeamountofinternationalcapital;(4)onessuchasaviation,electricity,oilrefining,paper-making,engineeringmachinery,andsoon,whichwillseeareductionincostsowningtoitsmaindependenceonprocurementofforeignrawmaterialsorequipments,orbecauseofthebenefitsresultedfromlargeamountsofexternaldebtserviceandtheexchangegainsandlosses,inparticulartheaviationindustrywiththedominanceofthedomesticmarket;(5)high-techonesrelyinguponimportingtechnology,whichdon’thaveanyadvantageinintellectualpropertyrightsrelatedtokeysciencesandtechnologies,willalsomaintainthemomentumofalargeamountofimportsinacertainperiodoftime,andareabletokeepuptheiradvantageincostsunderthepremiseofariseinYuan.
MajorindustriesdamagedbyYuan’sriseareasfollows:
(1)asforexport-orientedones,suchasthetextileindustry(especiallygarmentindustrywiththehighdegreeofdependenceonexportsmoredamage,followedbythecottonspinningindustryandwoolindustry),householdappliances,buildingmaterials,whoseproductcompetitivenesswillbeweakenedtoalargeextent;
(2)foreigntradeenterpriseshaveadisadvantageouspositionintheindustrychain,andtheirimportbusinesswillbeunabletogainexcessprofitsfromtheappreciationoftheRMB,withtheexportbusinesssufferingalot;(3)mining,petrochemical,andnon-ferrousmetalindustries,whichwillbegivenabigblowbytheirexportbusiness;(4)agriculturewithalargerproportionofexports.
2.TheimpactofRMBappreciationonChina'sexportenterprises
2.1AdverseeffectsonChina'sexportenterprises
2.1.1Theexportofmanufacturedgoodsisgreatlyaffectedbyfluctuationsinexchangerateonawidebasis
RMBappreciationwillinduceaincreaseincurrencyexchangecostinChineseexportfirms,resultinginthelossofpriceadvantage.ThecostreferstotheRMBcostpaiddomesticallyonthenetrevenuefromonedollar’worthofexports.China'smanufacturingexportsaremoreconcentratedonlow-endproducts,withcompetitiveadvantageweak.Theseproductscompetewithotheronesmainlybymeansofprizing,andasaresulttheYuan’srisewillhavearetardingeffectontheirexports.Foremployeesinthemanufacturingsector,thosethatareseriouslyaffectedmayfacethereducedincome,oreventheriskofunemployment.Theadverseimpactofenterprisesinlabor-intensiveindustrieswillbegreaterthanonesincapital-intensiveindustries.
2.1.2Causingaslowgrowthintheexportofmostofproductsrelatedtorawmaterials
Themajorityofproductsrelatedtorawmaterialsdon’thaveanycompetitiveedgeintheexportprice,withastrongerrelianceontheexchangerate,suchaspaper,cottonyarn,blackmetal(steel,manganese,etc.),aluminum,woodandotherdecorations.RMBappreciationwillinduceaslowgrowthinexportsoftheseprimaryproductsandrawmaterialproducts,havinganegativeimpactoneconomicgrowthintheshortrun.Itwillalsoreducetheexportsofcrudeoil,refinedoil,timber,copper,goldandotherresource-basedcommodities,andbringaboutthelossoftheenterprises,worsestillsuchcascadeeffectsasincreasedunemploymentandbankingbaddebts.Becauseourresourcesarenotrich,theseresource-basedproductsbelongtohighlyenergy-consumingandpollutingindustries.Over-exportsofresource-basedproductsmakeiteasytointensifythetensecontradictionbetweendomesticcoal,electricityandoiltransportationintheshortterm.Inthelongterm,itwillincreasethepressureofthedomesticenvironmentandresources,whichisnotconducivetothesustainabledevelopmentofthedomesticeconomy.
2.1.3Thepsychologicaleffectoftradeimpactonpeople
Intheinternationalmarket,theincreaseinproductioncostswillbepassedontotheprice,andconsequentlytheexchangerateappreciationwillnotaffecttheprofitsoftheseenterprisestoomuch.China'sexportproductscausethepricefluctuationsinforeigncountriesduetoourcurrencyappreciation,andtheappreciationoftheRMBwillincreasethedomesticproductioncostsoftheseenterprises,andintheinternationalmarkettheseenterpriseshaveasubstantialcostadvantage,withtheminimalimpactontheinterestsoftraders.However,thosewithulteriormotiveswillinstigateanegativepsychologicaleffectonChinaintheinternationalcommunity.PeoplewillbelievethepricesofproductsfromChinaarehigher,andforeignbusinessmenalsobelievethattheywillnotmadealotofmoneyfromproductsimportedfromChina,whichcausesthereallyadverseimpactonChina'sexports.
2.2BeneficialeffectsonChina'sexportenterprises
2.2.1Enhancingtheindependentinnovationcapacityofenterprises
Atpresent,Chinaisatastageoftechnologyovertaking,andenterpriseshaveastrongcapacityoftechnologyintroduction,digestionandabsorption.AndtheYuan’srisecanreducethecostofindependentdevelopment,indirectlypromotethetechnologicalupgradingoffirmsandenhancetheircorecompetitiveness,thusspeedingupthepaceofoptimizingandupgradingtheindustrialstructureandboostingthestructureadjustmentofexports.
2.2.2Optimizingthestructureofintroducedforeigncapital
RMBappreciationmakesimprovethetreatmentofworkers,whichisbeneficialtoattractinghigh-techtalents.Undertheprerequisiteofthecountry'sindependentinnovationandtechnologicalprogress,foreigncapitalwillinvestinthoseindustrieswithahightechnologicalcontent,therebypromotingindustrialstructureupgradingandoptimizingthestructureofexports.
2.2.3PromotingChina'senterpriseinvestmentoverseas
Forenterprisestoinvestdirectlyinforeignnations,theymustusethecurrencyofinvestmentdestinationcountry.TheRMBappreciationsignificantlyreducestheiroverseasinvestmentcosts,andmeanwhileenhancesthefirm'sinternationalpurchasingpowerandcapacityofforeigninvestment,pavingthewayforapartofpowerfulenterprisestoimplement"goingout"strategy.
2.2.4Facilitatingthedevelopmentinserviceandtradeindustries
RMBappreciationcanmosteffectivelycrowdoutthosefirmsinthemanufacturingsectorwithlowtechnologycontentandaddedvalue,poormanagementandlowefficiency,tothebenefitofchangingthesituationofexcessiveresourcesgatheringtoexportindu
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