AcademicEnglishGrowinggrey.docx
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AcademicEnglishGrowinggrey.docx
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AcademicEnglishGrowinggrey
Academic-English-Growing-grey
Growinggrey
JohnI.ClarkeandAndrewCraven
Thepopulationoftheworldisageing.Theproportionofelderlypeopleinbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesisgrowing.Thisarticleconsidersthestatisticsandsomeoftheimpactsofthisdemographicphenomenon.Itisrelevanttoanyonestudyingpopulationchange.
Weliveinanageistsociety,inwhichpeoplearediscriminatedagainstonthegroundsofage.Thisiscurious,becausemostcountriesintheworldhaveageingpopulations,withagrowingproportionofoldpeoplewhowillhaveanincreasingimpactuponallaspectsofpolity,societyandeconomy.
1Whoaretheold?
Therearenosharpthresholdsseparatingtheoldandtheveryold(sometimeslessharshlycalledelderlyandveryelderly)fromtherestofthepopulation.Internationally,theUNPopulationDivisiondefinestheoldasthoseaged60andover(UnitedNations,2005).In2005therewereabout673millionoldpeopleaccordingtothisdefinition一10%oftheworldpopulationInthedevelopingworldthiswas8%ofthepopulationandinthedevelopedworld20%.TheratherlowUNthresholdof60makessenseinthedevelopingworld,aspeoplehavelowerlifeexpectanciesthere,butinthedevelopedworldasawholethoseaged60andoveralreadyoutnumberchildrenaged0-14.
ThewidelyciteddatasheetsofthePopulationReferenceBureau(Haute,2005)usethehigherthresholdof65andoverasadefinitionofoldage.Accordingtothis,about7%oftheworldpopulationwere"old"in2005:
only5%ofthedevelopingworld,but15%ofthedevelopedworld.IntheUKwehavetended,ratheridiosyncratically,todefineoldpeopleasthoseofpensionableage-65andoverformenand60andoverforwomen.Thisisdespitethefactthatwomentendtooutlivemen.Atthe2001census18.4%oftheUKpopulation,or10.8millionpeople,fellintothiscategory.
wasliving(UnitedNations,2005)
3Moreoldandveryoldpeople
Ageingofthepopulationismainlycausedby-theworldwidephenomenonoffertilitydecline,whichisbringingaboutwidespreadbutvariablereductionsinthepercentageofyoungpeople.Itisaugmentedbyincreasedlifeexpectancy.Thenumberofthoseaged60andoverintheworldisincreasingbyabout2%annually,fasterthanyoungeragegroups.In2000,therewereapproximatelythreetimesasmanypeopleaged60andoverintheworldasin1950;by2050theyareexpectedtotripleagaintoreach22%oftheworldtotal,oralmost1.9billion.Eightoutoftenofthemwillbelivinginthedevelopingworld.
Naturally,thepercentageofoldpeople(Figure1)andtheirrateofincreasevariesamongcountries.In2005,thoseaged60andoverrangedfrommorethan25%inJapan,ItalyandGermanytolessthan5%inmosttropicalAfricancountriesandintheoil-richcountriesintheMiddleEastthatattractnumerousyoungworkers.By2050,therangeisexpectedtobeevenwiderfrommorethan40%inJapan(whichhasthelongestlifeexpectancyintheworld),Italy,theRepublicofKoreaandSloveniatostilllessthan5%inafewAfricancountries(EquatorialGuinea,LiberiaandSwaziland).Broadly,ageingofpopulationisfastestincountrieswithrapidfertilitydecline(e.g.,China,theRepublicofKorea,Tunisia,IranandAlgeria),andslowestintheleastdevelopedcountriesoftropicalAfrica(e.g.,Niger,Uganda)thathaveexperiencedlimitedfertilitydecline.Thesecontrastsbetweencountriesaremuchthesameifthe65-yearthresholdisused.InthisageingprocesstheUKisaboutaverageforadevelopedcountry.In2005,21%oftheUKpopulationwereaged60andover,andthisisexpectedtoriseto29%in2050.Bythistime.somedevelopedcountrieswillhavetwoelderlypeopleforeverychild.
Thegeographicaldifferencesareevenmorestrikingamongtheoldestagegroups,whoseratesofgrowtharemorerapidstill.UNprojectionsindicatethattheworldpopulationofoldest-oldaged80andoverisincreasingby4.2%annually.Itisexpectedtogrowfrom87million(1.3%oftheworldtotal)in2005to394million(4.3%ofthetotal)in2050,70%ofthisgrouplivinginthedevelopedworld.InIndiaandChinathisgroupmaynumber100millionand53millionrespectivelyby2050.Howevermuchhigherpercentagesofoldest-oldarelikelytobefoundinsomedevelopedcountries:
morethan15%inJapanandItaly,andupto9%intheUK(Figure2)Incontrast,manyAfricanpopulationswillstillhavelessthan1%oftheirpopulationsaged80andover.The2001censusintheUKgivesmorethan1.1millionpeople(1.9%)aged85andover.Thisis5.5timesthenumbercounted50yearsearlieratthe1951census.In2001thereweremorethanathirdofamillionaged90andover.Theveryoldisthefastestgrowingagegroup.
4Moreoldwomen
Womengenerallylivelongerthanmen,althoughthedifferencevariesfromover10yearsinmanycountriesvneasternEurope(13yearsinRussia)to1yearorlessinsomecountriesinsouth-centralAsia(Nepal,BangladeshandIndia).Sothemajorityofolderpeoplearewomen,butthatmajortyincreaseswithage.Intheworldpopulationof2005,therewereabout10%morewomenthanmenaged60andover(67million).However,thereweretwiceasmanywomenasmenaged80andoverandfourtimesasmanyfemalecentenarians.Inmale-dominatedsocieties,elderlywidowswhooutlivetheirusuallyolderhusbandsfaceparticularlyseveresocialandeconomicproblems.Morethanhalfofallwomenaged75andoverintheUKlivealone,comparedwithlessthanathirdofmenofthatage,becausemoreelderlymenremarry.
5Dependencyburden
Thesurgeinthenumbersandproportionofoldpeopleisposingagrowingage-relateddependencyburdenontheactivepopulationsofmostcountries.Thisissometimesmeasuredbyapotentialsupportratio(PSR),whichistheratioofthenumberaged15-64tothoseaged65ormore.Since1950,theworldPSRhasfallenfrom12to9,andby2050itisexpectedtofallto4,alevelalreadyattainedbytheUKandSpain.ItisevenlowerthanthisinPortugal(3.9),Greece(3.7),Italy(3.5)andparticularlyinJapan(3.3).By2020oneinfourJapanesewillbeover65.Inthedevelopedworld,wehavehadtimetobecomeaccustomedtothegrowingproblemsofpensions,poverty,health,housingandisolationofelderlypeopleinindividualisticsocietieswithlooseningfamilyties.Itisunfortunatethatthevaluableexperienceofelderlypeopleisoftenoverlookedasaresource.theyareinsufficientlyintegratedintosociety,andagrowingpercentageofthethemarelivingalone.Inthedevelopingworld,ageingofpopulationsishappeningmuchmorerapidly,asisurbanisationandadeclineinthecohesionoftheextendfamily,traditionallyasupportfortheelderly.Theproblemsofadjustmenttoageingarethereforemoreacuteandimmediateinlesseconomicallydevelopedcountries.
6Age-selectivemigration
Migrationplaysanimportantpartintheagedifferentiationofpopulations,particularlyatalocallevelwithincountries.Formanyyearthemovementofpeopleofworkingagehasdominatedmigrtion,butretirementmigrationhasacleareffectonthelocationofelderlypeopleindevelopedcountries.InBritainall10districtswiththehighestproportions(3.6%-4.6%atthe2001census)ofpersonssged85andoverandall10districtswiththehighestproportions(27.4-33.1%)ofpersonsofretirementagehavecoastallocationsinthesouthandsoutheastofEngland.Thesearetraditionalretirementareas(Figure3).Sevenofthedistrictsappearinbothlists:
Christchurch(Dorset),EastDevon,WestSomerset,Tendring(Essex),Arun(WestSussex),andRotherandEastbourne(EastSussex).Theinevitablepreponderanceofoldwomeninthesedistrictsmeanstheyhavelowgenderratios,sometimesfewerthan90malesper100females.Nodoubtthepatternwouldhavebeensharperhaditnotbeenfortherecentpreferenceforretiringabroadtosunnierclimes.
Differentialageingofpopulationsalsoleadstointernationalmigration.Themoreagedpopulationsofthedevelopedcountriesareinevitablyattractingyoungermigrantworkersfromlessdevelopedcountries.AllcountriesoftheEuropeanUnion,forexample,arefacedwithgrowinginternationalmigrationandgrowingethnicdiversityofpopulations.Thesehavebecomethornypoliticaltopics,especiallywiththeemergenceofterrorismandmilitantreligiousfundamentalism.Theimpactofinternationalmigrationmaybeoneofthemajorconsequencesofageingpopulationsduringthe21stcentury.
References
Haub,C.(2005).2005worldpopulationdatasheet.Washington,DC:
PopulationReferenceBureau.RetrievedOctober26,2011,fromwww.prb.org/pdf05/OSworlddatasheet_eng.pdf
UnitedNations(2005).Worldpopulationprospects:
The2004revision,highlights(ESAlPlWP.193).NewYork:
UnitedNations,DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision.RetrievedOctober26,2011,from:
www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/2004Highlights-inalrevised.pdf
JohnI.ClarkeisanemeritusprofessorofgeographyattheUniversityofDurham,andhaswrittenandeditedmanybooksaboutPopulationgeography.
AndrewCravenisresearchdirectoratsoftwareconsultancySQSSolutions.
Source:
AdaptedfromClarke,J.L,&Craven,A.(2006).Growinggrey.GeographyReview.2
(2),10-13.ReproducedbypermissionofPhilipAllanUpdates.
TextGrowinggrey,Text4a(Readingtextspp.150-155)
Text4aisanarticlefromtheGeographyReviewonissuesrelatedtoanageingpopulation.
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Thepopulationoftheworldisageing.Whatimpactwillthisphenomenonhaveonsociety?
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