科技文.docx
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科技文.docx
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科技文
01-A.TheKnown,TheUnknownandTheUnknowable
Wearealltaughtwhatisknown,butwerarelylearnaboutwhatisnotknown,andwealmostneverlearnabouttheunknowable.Thatbiascanleadtomisconceptionsabouttheworldaroundus.
Theknownispressedonusfromthefirst.Inschoolwestarteachcourseatthebeginningofalongbookfullofthingsthatareknownbutthatwedonotyetknow.Weunderstandthatbeyondthatbookliesanotherbookandthatbeyondthatcourseliesanothercourse.Thefrontierofknowledge,whereitfinallybordersontheunknown,seemsfarawayandirrelevant,separatedfromusbyanapparentlyendlessexpanseoftheknown.Wedonnotseethatwemaybeproceedingdownanarrowpathofknowledgeandthatifwelookslightlyleftorrightwewillbestaringdirectlyattheunknown.
Evenwhenwearerightontheedgeoftheunknown,wemaynotbeawareofit.ThoseofuswholearnedthehistoryofthePersianWarsinschooldidnotknowthattheeventssovividlydescribedareallbasedonthewritingsoftheonesourcewhosurvived—Herodotus.IfyouwanttoknowalmostanythingthathappenedintheGreeceofthattimeanditwasnotrecordedbyHerodotus,itisunknownandinallprobabilitycanneverbeknown.Butwedidnotthinkofhisaccountsasfragmentsofknowledgeontheedgeoftheunknown;itwasjustmorestufffromthehugepileoffactswehadtolearnaboutthehistoryofGreece.
Becauseofsuchlessons,wegrowupthinkingmoreisknownthanactuallyis.Ifwehadabetterdescriptionofthelimitsofpresentknowledge,thatdescriptioncouldbeapartofwhatwearetaught.Suchinsightwouldgiveusabetterperspectiveonwhatisknownandwhatiscurrentlyunknown.
Intime,manythingsnowunknownwillbecomeknown.Wewilllearnmoreaboutwhatliesbelowthesurfaceoftheearth,andwemaylearnhowneuronsinteracttoletusperceiveandthink.Theaccumulatingpileofdatacanbemisleading,however.Beyondthecurrentlyunknownarethethingsthatareinherentlyunknowable.
Fewunknowableareconsciouslyrecognizedassuch.Theoutcomeofaspinningroulettewheelandthelocalweatherthreemonthsfromnowbelongtothatsmallclass.Everyday,however,webumpintophenomenathatmaywellbeunknowablebutthatwedonotrecognizeassuch.Someoftheseunknowableformthebasesofrespectedprofessions.Brokersmakealivinganticipatingthefluctuationsofstockprices.Presidentsrunforofficebasedonclaimsofwhattheywilldoforavastandpoorlyunderstoodeconomycomposedofmanyunpredictablyinteractingsectors.Wedonotevenknowifwearedealingherewiththepartlyknown,themainlyunknownortheunknowable.
Nevertheless,weunconsciouslyrecognizethattheunknowablesurroundsus.Nobodythinksaboutorpretendstoknowwhowillrunforpresident20yearsfromnow.nowdopeopletrytopredicttheautomobileaccidentstheywillbeinvolvedin.toknowthatwewillbestruckbyacarnextyear,wewouldhavetoknow,withimpossibleaccuracy,theparticularsofthelifeofthedriver,hishabits,histiming,hiswayofpressingtheacceleratorandsoforth—allthefactsthatareneededtobringhimwithperfectprecisiontothatunpleasantencounter.Itisclearthatallthesedetailsareunknown,andwedonottryveryhardtolearnaboutthembecauseweinstinctivelyrealizetheyarealsounknowable.
Indistinguishingtheknownortheunknownfromtheunknowable,thelevelofdetailcanbedecisive.Thelevelofdetailiswhatseparatesthedelusionofthegamblerfromthewealthofthecasinoowner.Thegamblerattemptstopredicttheindividualandunpredictablespinsoftheroulettewheel;theownerconcernshimselfwiththequitepredictableaverageoutcome.
Thepredictionprocessisaidedbythefactthattheartificialisgenerallysimplerthanthenatural.Therollofabowlingballdownanalley,forinstance,iseasiertopredictthanthemotionofanirregularstonetumblingdownaroughhillside.Itislikelythattheartificialwillincreasinglysaveusfromtheunpredictable.Itmaybeeasiertomovegraduallytowardacompletelyenclosedearthwhoseclimatecouldbeartificiallycontrolledthantolearntopredictthenaturalweather.
Itisincreatingtheartificialandcontrollablethatscienceexcels.Scienceandengineeringhavemadeitpossibletoconstructthepartiallyartificialsurroundingsweliveintoday,repletewithhugebridgestrucks,airplanes,antibioticsandgeneticallyalteredspecies.Wearelikelytobuildanincreasinglyartificial,andhenceincreasinglyknowable,world.
Twolimitationsmayconstrainthemarchofpredictability.First,astheartifactsofscienceandengineeringgroweverlargerandmorecomplex,theymaythemselvesbecomeunpredictable.Largepiecesofsoftware,astheyareexpandedandamended,candevelopadegreeofcomplexityreminiscentofnaturalobjects,andtheycananddobehaveindisturbingandunpredictableways.Andsecond,embeddedwithinourincreasinglyartificialworldwillbelargenumbersofcomplexandthoroughlyidiosyncratichumans.
01-B.TheWest'sdebttoChina
Oneofthegreatestuntoldsecretsofhistoryisthatthe‘modernworld’inwhichweliveisauniquesynthesisofChineseandWesterningredients.Possiblymorethanhalfofthebasicinventionsanddiscoveriesuponwhichthe‘modernworld’restscomefromchina.Andyetfewpeopleknowthis.Why?
TheChinesethemselvesareasignorantofthisfactasWesterners.Fromtheseventeenthcenturyonwards,theChinesebecameincreasinglydazzledbyEuropeantechnologicalexpertise,havingexperiencedaperiodofamnesiaregardingtheirownachievements.WhentheChinesewereshownamechanicalclockbyJesuitmissionaries,theywereawestruck.Theyhadforgottenthatitwastheywhohadinventedmechanicalclocksinthefirstplace!
ItisjustasmuchasurprisefortheChineseasforWesternerstorealizethatmodernagriculture,modernshipping,themodernoilindustry,modernastronomicalobservatories,modernmusic,decimalmathematics,papermoney,umbrellas,fishingreels,wheelbarrowsmulti-staterockets,guns,underwatermines,poisongasparachutes,hot-airballoons,mannedflight,brandy,whiskythegameofchess,printing,andeventheessentialdesignofthesteamengine,allcamefromChina.
Withouttheimportationfromchinaofnauticalandnavigationalimprovementssuchasships’rudders,thecompassandmultiplemasts,thegreatEuropeanVoyagesofDiscoverycouldneverhavebeenundertaken.ColumbuswouldnothavesailedtoAmerica,andEuropeanswouldneverhaveestablishedcolonialempires.
Withouttheimportationfromchinaofthestirrup,toenablethemtostayonhorseback,knightsofoldwouldneverhaveriddenintheirshiningarmortoaiddamselsindistress;therewouldhavebeennoAgeofChivalry.Andwithouttheimportationfromchinaofgunsandgunpowder,theknightswouldnothavebeenknockedfromtheirhorsesbybulletswhichpiercedthearmor,bringingtheAgeofChivalrytoanend.
Withouttheimportationfromchinaofpaperandprinting,Europewouldhavecontinuedformuchlongertocopybooksbyhand.Literacywouldnothavebecomesowidespread.
JohannGutenbergdidnotinventmovabletype.Itwasinventedinchina.WilliamGarveydidnotdiscoverthecirculationofthebloodinthebody.Itwasdiscovered—orrather,alwaysassumed—inchina.IsaacNewtonwasnotthefirsttodiscoverhisFirstLawofMotion.Itwasdiscoveredinchina.
ThesemythsandmanyothersareshatteredbyourdiscoveryofthetrueChineseoriginsofmanyofthethings,allaroundus,whichwetakeforgranted.Someofourgreatestachievementsturnouttohavebeennotachievementsatall,butsimpleborrowings.Yetthereisnoreasonforustofeelinferiorordowncastattherealizationthatmuchofthegeniusofmankind’sadvancewasChineseratherthanEuropean.ForitisexcitingtorealizethattheEastandtheWestarenotasfarapartinapiritorinfactasmostofushavebeenled,byappearances,tobelieve,andthattheEastandtheWestarealreadycombinedinasynthesissopowerfulandsoprofoundthatitisall—pervading.Withinthissynthesisweliveourdailylives,andfromitthereisnoescape.ThemodernworldisacombinationofEasternandWesterningredientswhichareinextricablefused.Thefactthatwearelargelyunawareofitisperhapsoneofthegreatestcasesofhistoricalblindnessintheexistenceofthehumanrace.
Whyareweignorantofthisgigantic,obvioustruth?
ThemainreasonissurelythattheChinesethemselveslostsightofit.iftheveryoriginatorsoftheinventionsanddiscoveriesnolongerclaimthem,andifeventheirmemoryofthemhasfaded,whyshouldtheirinheritorstroubletoresurrecttheirlostclaims?
Untilourowntime,itisquestionablewhethermanyWesternersevenwantedtoknowthetruth.Itisalwaysmoresatisfyingtotheegotothinkthatwehavereachedourpresentpositionaloneandunaided,thatwearetheproudmastersofallabilitiesandallcrafts.
ThediscoveryofthetruthisaresultofincidentsinthelifeofthedistinguishedscholarDrJosephNeedham,authorofthegreatworkScienceandCivilizationinChina.In1937,aged37,NeedhamwasoneoftheyoungestFellowsoftheRoyalSocietyandabiochemistofconsiderabledistinctionatCambridge.Hehadalreadypublishedmanybooks,includingthedefinitivehistoryofembryology.OnedayhemetandbefriendedsomeChinesestudents,inparticularayoungwomanfromNankingnamedLuGwei—djen,whosefatherhadpassedontoherhisunusuallyprofoundknowledgeofthehistoryofChinesescience.NeedhambegantoheartalesofhowtheChinesehadbeenthetruediscoverersofthisandthatimportantthing,andatfirsthecouldn
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