工程管理专业外文翻译金都花园房地产开发项目可行性研究.docx
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工程管理专业外文翻译金都花园房地产开发项目可行性研究.docx
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工程管理专业外文翻译金都花园房地产开发项目可行性研究
毕业设计(论文)
外文翻译
题目
金都花园房地产开发项目可行性研究
DeterminantsofUSinvestmentinrealestateabroad
FariborzMoshirian*,Toan
PhamSchoolofBanking&Finance,TheUni6ersityofNewSouthWales,Sydney,NSW2052,Australia
Received22January1998;accepted22April1999
Abstract:
ThepurposeofthispaperistoanalyseanddiscussthosefactorswhicharecontributingtotheexpansionofUSFDIinrealestate.TheempiricalresultsofthismodelofFDIinrealestateshowthatasUSforeignfinancialliabilitiesincrease,thereisanaccompanyingincreaseinitsFDIinrealestate.ThisresultisconsistentwiththestudybyRussekh,F.,Ruffin,R.,1986.TheroleofforeigndirectinvestmentinUScapitalflows.Am.Econ.Rev.76,1127–1130,whoshowedthatUSFDIabroadisasubstituteforUSfinancialassets.Furthermore,theempiricalresultsindicatethatasreturnsfromtheUSstockmarketdecline,therearemoreincentivesforUSinvestorstoinvestinforeignrealestate.TheempiricalresultsalsoshowthatUSfinancialwealth,USFDIinmanufacturingandbankingandUSbilateraltradecontributepositivelytotheexpansionofUSFDIinrealestate.©2000ElsevierScienceB.V.Allrightsreserved.
Keywords:
Realestate;Foreigndirectinvestment;Stockmarket
1.Introduction
Sincetheearly1980s,accordingtotheWorldInvestmentReport(UnitedNations,1997),world-wideflowsofforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)havegrownatunprecedentedrates,toreachatotaloutflowofabout$420billionin1996.TheannualaveragegrowthrateofFDIhasbeen33%between1987and1996whichfarexceededthatofmerchandiseexports(12%)andnominalGDP(12%).
USFDIabroadiscategorisedintoseveralindustries.OneofthecategoriesofUSFDIabroadisFDIinrealestate,asopposedtoFDIinmanufacturing,banking,etc.WhileitisobservedthatUSFDIinrealestateissmall,ithasincreasedbymorethanfourtimesovertheperiod1985–1997.TherearefivemajorcountriesinwhichtheUShasinvestedinrealestate.TheseareCanada,theUK,Mexico,FranceandItaly.In1997,almost39%oftheUSFDIabroadinrealestatewasintheUK,21%inCanada,12%inMexico,3%inFranceand3%inItaly.
Realestateinvestmenthaslongbeenconfinedtomarketswithwhichinvestorsarefamiliar.InternationaldiversificationwasnotontheagendaasWebb(1984)foundinacomprehensivesurveyofUSinstitutionalinvestors’attitudesinthe1970sandearly1980s.Theyappearedtodiversifyonlyoverdifferentpropertytypesandregionswithintheirhomecountry.However,inthe1980sgrowingamountsofmoneywerebeinginvestedabroadinmanyindustries,includingrealestate.ThisisthefirststudyofFDIinrealestatewhichattemptstoprovideananalysisandanexplanationforthedeterminantsofUSinvestmentinrealestateabroadovertheperiod1985–1995.TheunpublishedquarterlydataonUSFDIinrealestate,manufacturingandbankingmakesuchastudypossible.AccordingtoanunofficialdefinitionoftheUSDepartmentofCommerce,FDIinrealestatecoversinvestmentbyUSprivateinvestorsinrealestateincludingdomicile,commercialbuilding1.
Thepaperisstructuredasfollows:
Section2reviewssomeoftherelevantliteratureinFDI;Section3proposesvariousfactorswhichcoulddetermineUSFDIinrealestate;Section4modelsUSFDIinrealestate;Section5describesthesourcesofdataandthemethodologyusedinthispaper;Section6reportstheempiricalfindings;andSection7makessomeconcludingremarks.
2.Literaturereview
TherehavebeenanumberofstudiesonFDIingeneral,inmanufacturing,bankingandinsurance.However,therehasnotbeenastudyofFDIinrealestate.ThissectionofpaperintendstosurveysomeofthemostrelevantFDIstudieswhicharerelevanttoFDIinrealestate2.
Williams(1997)recentlysurveyedvariousestablishedtheoriesofFDIinthecontextofmultinationalbanking.InthissurveyhediscussedmajorFDItheoriessuchastheinternationalinvestmenttheory,theeclectictheoryandtheindustrialorganisationhypothesis;however,moststudiesofFDIhavebeenbasedontheeclectictheoryasameansofmeasuringthemostsignificantdeterminantsofFDI.SomestudiesofFDIhavehighlightedoneortwoasthemaindeterminantsofFDIabroad.Forinstance,studiesbyCushman(1987),andFrootandStein(1991)identifiedtheeffectsofexchangeratesonFDIasthemaindeterminantfactorforFDIabroad.StudiessuchasNigh(1986)arguedthatthesizeofthemarketinthehostcountryisthemostsignificantfactorforFDIabroad.SchneiderandFrey(1985)consideredthebalanceofpaymentasthemostsignificantdeterminantofFDIabroad.Furthermore,somestudiesfoundmorethanonefactorasthemajordeterminantsofFDIabroad.StudiessuchasCulem(1988)foundthatthehostmarketsize,themarketgrowthrate,unitlaborcost,tradeflowsandeconomiesofscalearethemajordeterminantsofFDIabroad.
Inadditiontotheabovestudies,somespecificstudiessuchasGoldbergandJohnson(1990)andGrossandGoldberg(1991)weremadeintheareaofforeignbanks’activitieswhereanumberofhypothesessuchascostofcapital,marketsize,exchangerate,economicgrowthandtradewerefoundasthemajordeterminantsofFDIinbanking.Ascanbeseenfromtheabovestudies,mostofthestudiesofFDIhaveselectedcertainfactorsasthemostrelevantcontributorstotheFDIabroad.ThisisconsistentwiththeeclectictheoryofFDI.Inthisstudy,asintheabovestudies,anumberoffactorswhichappeartobethemostsignificantcontributorstotheexpansionofUSFDIinrealestateasopposedtoFDIingeneralormanufacturingwillbeidentified.
3.FactorscontributingtoUSFDIinrealestateabroad
Inthissection,hypothesesbasedmainlyontheeclectictheorywillbeusedtoestimateFDIinrealestate.ThefirststepistoselectthosefactorswhichappeartobethemaindeterminantsofUSFDIinrealestateabroadonthebasisoftherecentliteratureaboutUSFDIingeneral,manufacturing,bankingandinsuranceabroad.ThefollowingfactorshavebeenselectedforUSFDIinrealestateabroad:
(1)USfinancialwealth,
(2)returnsfromtheUSstockmarket,(3)USFDIinmanufacturingandbankingabroad,(4)USforeignfinancialliabilities,(5)USbilateraltradeand(6)relativeeconomicgrowth.ThefirstfourfactorsarespecifictoFDIinrealestate,whereasthelastthreefactorsaregeneralfactorspertinenttoFDIingeneral.Theremainingpartofthissectionwilldiscusstheabovefactors.
3.1.Financialwealth
Existingincomeandwealtharethetwomajordeterminantsofthelikelihoodofacountryaccumulatingfurtherforeignanddomesticassets.AnumberofresearchersincludingBransonandHill(1970),RussekhandRuffin(1986)andUeda(1990)usedwealthasasourceofallocatingfinancialassetsbetweendomesticandforeignassets.RussekhandRuffin(1986)usedwealthasoneofthefactorsdeterminingtheamountofUSforeignassetsabroad.Furthermore,Ueda(1990)showedthatJapan’swealthhasbeenoneofthemajorcausesofexpansionofherforeignfinancialassets.Inthisstudy,itisalsoassumedthatUSfinancialwealthisallocatedbetweendomesticandforeignassets.Thus,itisexpectedthatUSFDIinrealestateabroad,asacomponentofUSforeigndirectinvestment,shouldberelatedtoUSfinancialwealth.Thestockoffinancialwealthisallocatedbetweendomesticandforeignassetsonthebasisofvariousfactorsincludingexpecteddomesticandforeignrateofreturns.Thus,giventhefindingsofRussekhandRuffin(1986)abouttherelationshipbetweenUSgeneralFDIandherwealth,andthefindingsofUeda(1990)inwhichacloselinkbetweenfinancialwealthandtheaccumulationofforeignassetswasobserved,thefirsthypothesistobetestediswhetherUSfinancialwealthaffectstheexpansionofUSFDIinrealestateabroad.
3.2.ReturnsfromtheUSstockmarket
AnotherhypothesistobetestedistherelationshipbetweenUSFDIinrealestateandreturnsfromtheUSstockmarket.ItisexpectedthatUSFDIinrealestateabroadisnegativelyrelatedtocontemporaneousreturnsfromtheUSstockmarket.ThisismotivatedbythefindingofWarther(1985)thataggregatemutualfundflowsintostocksandbondsarepositivelyrelatedtotheirconcurrentreturnsandnegativelyrelatedtotheirpastreturns.However,Warther(1985)findsthatmutualfundinvestorsinducepermanentratherthantransitorypricechangesindicatingthatfundinvestorsdonotmerelycreatehaphazardmovementsinsecurityprices.Theyappeartotradeoninformationor,atleast,tradeinthesamedirectionasthosewhopossessrelevantinformation.Thus,investorsentimentsdonotseemsounsophisticated,contrarytothefindingsinarelatedworkbyLeeetal.(1991).Inthisstudy,itisarguedthatasreturnsfromtheUSstockmarketfall,therearemoreincentivestoinvestabroadinrealestate.Thus,thehypothesistobetestediswhetherUSFDIinrealestateabroadisnegativelycorrelatedtoreturnsfromtheUSstockmarket.TheStandardandPoor’s500IndexisusedasaproxytomeasurereturnsfromtheUSstockmarket.
3.3.USFDIinmanufacturingandbankingabroad
Apositiverelationshiphasgenerallybeenfoundbetweenabank’sforeignexpansionandFDIfromotherindustries,particularlymanufacturing.Therationaleforthis,accordingtoanumberofresearchers,isthatmultinationalbankswillfollowtheirmultinationalcustomersabroadsothattheycanprovideservicesfortheircustomers’foreignoperations.Thetheoreticaljustificationofthefollow-the-clienthypothesisappliedtobanksisprovidedbyGrubel(1977).Supportingevidenceforthishypothesisisreported
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