工程经济学大作业.docx
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工程经济学大作业.docx
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工程经济学大作业
大连理工大学软件学院
2011-2012学年度第二学期大作业(论文)
课程名称:
工程经济学
大作业题目:
商业街开发项目财务分析
姓 名:
专 业:
软件工程
学 号:
E-mail:
班级:
电话:
_____________________________________________
Commercialstreetdevelopment
Projectfinancialanalysis
(商业街开发项目财务分析)
1preface
Backgroundandadvantages:
withtheimprovementofpeople'slivingstandard,peoplelifequalityrequesttoomoreandmorehigh,commercialstreethasagoodtrafficlocation,closetothetraffichuboftheregion,theresidentscanuseallkindsoftransportationisconvenientarrived,astrongsenseofaccessibilityandlocationadvantages.Citycommerciallocationconditionisitscanbringefficiencyandeffectivenessmaximizationofthebasicbasis.Locationconditionsaffectthecityfunction,theestablishmentofthebosomfriendandurbangenerallayoutplanningdesign,deepersaidalsoaffectthecitycommercialtouristmarketandradiationability.TheprojectlocatedinDLcitymainroad,whichistheadvantageofexcellentpeopleandtrafficflow.
Overviewandenvironment:
DLcityislocatedinanortherncoastallivablecity,ourblockinDLcitydevelopmentzone,wheretheroadspaciousandconvenienttraffic,nearuniversities,hasthegoodculturalatmosphere,andatthesametime,neartheresidentialareadevelopmentzone,moreconvenientresidents'consumption.Theprojectcoversanareaof200mu(120muforsale,80muforrent)ofwhich100muoflandisabusinessman,5acresoflandasastreet.Thetotalconstructionareais250thousandsquaremetres,3~4alargeshoppingmallisgivenpriorityto,andundergroundparking.Hasacertaindevelopmentscale,andcanbringaboutgoodsocialbenefitssocialbenefitsandeconomicbenefits.
2Thenecessityoftheprojectconstruction
AccordingtoChina'seconomicsituation,businesscircleconstructionbecameanimportantaspectofeconomicgrowth,promoteconsumptionhasbecomeanationaltheexpansionofdomesticdemand,promotingeconomicdevelopmentandeconomicvitalityreplyoneoftheimportantmeasures.Throughpromotingconsumption,thedevelopmentofcommercialconstructionnotonlycanrelieve,theimprovementofpeople'slifelevel,butalsocanpromotethedevelopmentofdozensofrelatedindustries,andprovidingsocietywithalargenumberofemploymentopportunities,andpromotethefurtherdevelopmentofthenationaleconomy.Inshort,therealestateindustryhighcorrelationtoeconomicgrowthinfluencebig.Thepurposeofconstruction,topromotethehealthydevelopmentofDLcitycommercialmarket,expanddomesticdemand,maintainagoodmomentumofgrowthinthenationaleconomy,andpromoteeconomicstructuraladjustment,improvetheresidentconsumptionlevelandquality,expandingemployment,promotetheprogressofscienceandtechnologyandthesustainabledevelopmenthasimportantsignificance.
3marketanalysisandgeneralschedule
marketanalysis:
InordertounderstandthemarketdemandstatusinnowdaysCSLcountymerchantmarketresearch,intentiontounderstandthegoalcustomerbuyingintentionandpurchaseability,soastodeterminetheproject'smarketposition.Thecontentoftheinvestigationhavecustomersbuyshopswill,shopstype,theareaofthedemand,thedemandunitpriceandtotalprice,expectationssupportingfacilities;InvestigationtoDMGbuildingmaterialswithinthehouseholdmarketmerchantisgivenpriorityto,questionnairesurveyandinterviewscombinedform,samplingsurvey.Datashowthatmerchantsforfoodandbeverage,financialinstitutions,leisureentertainment,supermarkets,logisticscenterandtheneedsofthehotelisbigger,above90%.Amongthemthedemandoffoodmainlyconcentratedinfastfood,specialsnacksandmiddle-gradehotel;Thehotelisinfavourofquicktypeandthree-starhotel,Leisureandrecreationalfacilitiesaremorepreferencefitnesscenterandbathcenterandetccansatisfytheneedsofdailylifesupporting.Therefore,thepurposeofsupportingfacilities,notonlybeabletomeettheirdailylife,theneedsofwork,andatthesametimetousethepurposeoflocationadvantagesattractperipheralpassengerflow,foilpopularity,thusincreasingtheprojectbusinessatmosphere,increaseprojectappreciationpotential.
TheGNPof36.9millionyuan,animalhusbandryoutputvalue33.57millionyuan,theindustrialoutputvalue14.88millionyuan,townshipandvillageenterprisesthevalueof4.68millionyuan.Asthedevelopmentofgreatwesternarea,regionaldevelopmentrapidly.Thecurrentcommercialcountysurroundinggatheredthebank,digitalspecialstoreandcateringentertainmentinstitutions,businesscircletoincreasinglyprosperous.Futuredevelopmentspaceisquitelarge,theopenthedevelopmentprospectisgood.
ProjectSchedule:
4investmentestimationandfinancing
Investmentestimation:
Thecompanyinvest400millionyuan,600millionyuanloansasdebtcapitalfrombank(fromthethirdyear,eachyearisequalprincipalandinterest,threeyearstopayoff,everyyear600*(1+10%)^5/3=322.102millionyuan),thebankloaninterestraterd=10%,theincometaxrateT=20%,thefinancingchargesfdisneglected.
Bankloancost
Kd=rd*(1-T)/(1-fd)=10%*(1-20%)/1=8%
5Financialbenefitandcostcounsel
Onsalesfromthethirdyearstart,salesplaneachyear,athirdofayearthatsalesof50000squaremeters,renteveryyearcanbe10millionyuan.priceofeverysquaremetre10,000yuan,soeveryyeartosellandrenthouseshavegiventhefor50000*1=500millionyuan.Countupto510millionyuan.Everyyeartheprincipalandinterestofthebankis322.102millionyuan.
Thefinancialbenefitis510-322.1=187.9millionyuaneveryyear
6Financialanalysis
periodforrecoveryofinvestment:
OriginalinvestmentF0=400millionyuan,startedtoselleachyearafterthenetcashflowfor197.9millionyuancumulativenetcashflowcomesastheyearofsalesisthethirdyear,alsoisthefifthyearintotalprogress.
=0+0+187.9*3-400=163.7>0
Paybacktime
Pt=5-1+(400-163.7*2)/197.9≈4.37年
netpresentvalue
setthediscountrateis10%,theprojectcalculationperiodis5yearsnetpresentvalue.
NPV(10)=
=-400+187.9*(P/A10,5)=-400+(187.9*3.7908)=312.3millionyuan
netpresentvalueNPV>0
internalrateofreturn
NPV=-400+187.9*
=0
Ifi=35%thenNPV=-400+187.9*(P/A35,3)
=-400+187.9*2.219=17.0
Ifi=40%thenNPV=-400+187.9*(P/A40,3)
=-400+187.9*2.035=-17.6
IRR=35%+(40%-35%)*17.0/(17.0+17.6)=37.46%.
Rateofreturnoninvestment
Yearlypaymentofprincipalandinterestis322.102millionyuan,andtheaverageprincipalis200millionyuaneveryyear,sotheeveryyearloaninterestis322.102-200=122.102millionyuan
TheAnnualinterestpre-taxprofitis122.102+187.9=300millionyuan
Therateofreturnoninvestment(ROI):
ROI=Annualinterestpre-taxprofit/totalinvestment×100%=300/1000×100%=30%
RateofReturnonCommonStockholders’Equity
EquityCapitalis400millionyuan.
ROE=annualprofit/EquityCapital×100%=187.9/400×100%≈47.0%
CurrentRatio
TheCurrentassetsis400millionyuan.
Thebankreimbursementis322.102millionyuaneveryyear.
CurrentRatio=currentassets/TotalCurrentLiabilities
=400/322.102=1.24
InterestCoverageRatio
InterestCoverageRatio=EarningsBeforeInterestandTax/Thecurrentdealwithinterestexpense=400/(322.102-200)=3.28
DebtServiceCoverageRatio
DSCR=(EBITDA-Tax)/PD=400/322.102=1.24
7Summary
Accordingtotheanalysistheresult,thisprojecthasalotofprojectfeasibility.
Fromtheprojectinvestmentpaybackperiodwecansee,theperiodforrecoveryofinvestmentisshortenoughas4.37years.
Fromtheanalysisofinternalrateofreturnandthecurrentratio,wegotthedatathattheinternalrateofreturnisonly37.46,thecurrentratioashighas1.24,theRateofReturnonCommonStockholders’Equityisashighas47.0%,sotheprofitsishighenough.
Soabovetheanalysis,theprojectriskislow,andreturnisrelativelyhigh.Sotheprojectisfeasible.
8Cashflowstatementandaccumulatedrepaymenttable
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