ted 演讲文档格式.docx
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ted 演讲文档格式.docx
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tknowitwascloudybecausemythinkingwascloudy.
02:
12
(Laughter)
14
Anditwasn'
tuntilIgottotheairportcheck-incounter,thatIrealizedIdidn'
thavemypassport.
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SoIracedhomeinthesnowandice,40minutes,gotmypassport,racedbacktotheairport,Imadeitjustintime,buttheyhadgivenawaymyseattosomeoneelse,soIgotstuckinthebackoftheplane,nexttothebathrooms,inaseatthatwouldn'
trecline,onaneight-hourflight.Well,Ihadalotoftimetothinkduringthoseeighthoursandnosleep.
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AndIstartedwondering,aretherethingsthatIcando,systemsthatIcanputintoplace,thatwillpreventbadthingsfromhappening?
Oratleastifbadthingshappen,willminimizethelikelihoodofitbeingatotalcatastrophe.SoIstartedthinkingaboutthat,butmythoughtsdidn'
tcrystallizeuntilaboutamonthlater.Iwashavingdinnerwithmycolleague,DannyKahneman,theNobelPrizewinner,andIsomewhatembarrassedlytoldhimabouthavingbrokenmywindow,and,youknow,forgottenmypassport,andDannysharedwithmethathe'
dbeenpracticingsomethingcalledprospectivehindsight.
03:
18
It'
ssomethingthathehadgottenfromthepsychologistGaryKlein,whohadwrittenaboutitafewyearsbefore,alsocalledthepre-mortem.Now,youallknowwhatthepostmortemis.Wheneverthere'
sadisaster,ateamofexpertscomeinandtheytrytofigureoutwhatwentwrong,right?
Well,inthepre-mortem,Dannyexplained,youlookaheadandyoutrytofigureoutallthethingsthatcouldgowrong,andthenyoutrytofigureoutwhatyoucandotopreventthosethingsfromhappening,ortominimizethedamage.
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SowhatIwanttotalktoyouabouttodayaresomeofthethingswecandointheformofapre-mortem.Someofthemareobvious,someofthemarenotsoobvious.I'
llstartwiththeobviousones.
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Aroundthehome,designateaplaceforthingsthatareeasilylost.Now,thissoundslikecommonsense,anditis,butthere'
salotofsciencetobackthisup,basedonthewayourspatialmemoryworks.There'
sastructureinthebraincalledthehippocampus,thatevolvedovertensofthousandsofyears,tokeeptrackofthelocationsofimportantthings--wherethewellis,wherefishcanbefound,thatstandoffruittrees,wherethefriendlyandenemytribeslive.ThehippocampusisthepartofthebrainthatinLondontaxicabdriversbecomesenlarged.It'
sthepartofthebrainthatallowssquirrelstofindtheirnuts.Andifyou'
rewondering,somebodyactuallydidtheexperimentwheretheycutofftheolfactorysenseofthesquirrels,andtheycouldstillfindtheirnuts.Theyweren'
tusingsmell,theywereusingthehippocampus,thisexquisitelyevolvedmechanisminthebrainforfindingthings.Butit'
sreallygoodforthingsthatdon'
tmovearoundmuch,notsogoodforthingsthatmovearound.Sothisiswhywelosecarkeysandreadingglassesandpassports.Sointhehome,designateaspotforyourkeys--ahookbythedoor,maybeadecorativebowl.Foryourpassport,aparticulardrawer.Foryourreadingglasses,aparticulartable.Ifyoudesignateaspotandyou'
rescrupulousaboutit,yourthingswillalwaysbetherewhenyoulookforthem.
05:
23
Whatabouttravel?
Takeacellphonepictureofyourcreditcards,yourdriver'
slicense,yourpassport,mailittoyourselfsoit'
sinthecloud.Ifthesethingsarelostorstolen,youcanfacilitatereplacement.
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Nowthesearesomeratherobviousthings.Remember,whenyou'
reunderstress,thebrainreleasescortisol.Cortisolistoxic,anditcausescloudythinking.Sopartofthepracticeofthepre-mortemistorecognizethatunderstressyou'
renotgoingtobeatyourbest,andyoushouldputsystemsinplace.
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Andthere'
sperhapsnomorestressfulasituationthanwhenyou'
reconfrontedwithamedicaldecisiontomake.Andatsomepoint,allofusaregoingtobeinthatposition,wherewehavetomakeaveryimportantdecisionaboutthefutureofourmedicalcareorthatofalovedone,tohelpthemwithadecision.
06:
11
AndsoIwanttotalkaboutthat.AndI'
mgoingtotalkaboutaveryparticularmedicalcondition.Butthisstandsasaproxyforallkindsofmedicaldecision-making,andindeedforfinancialdecision-making,andsocialdecision-making--anykindofdecisionyouhavetomakethatwouldbenefitfromarationalassessmentofthefacts.
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Sosupposeyougotoyourdoctorandthedoctorsays,"
Ijustgotyourlabworkback,yourcholesterol'
salittlehigh."
Now,youallknowthathighcholesterolisassociatedwithanincreasedriskofcardiovasculardisease,heartattack,stroke.Andsoyou'
rethinkinghavinghighcholesterolisn'
tthebestthing,andsothedoctorsays,"
Youknow,I'
dliketogiveyouadrugthatwillhelpyouloweryourcholesterol,astatin."
Andyou'
veprobablyheardofstatins,youknowthatthey'
reamongthemostwidelyprescribeddrugsintheworldtoday,youprobablyevenknowpeoplewhotakethem.Andsoyou'
rethinking,"
Yeah!
Givemethestatin."
07:
06
Butthere'
saquestionyoushouldaskatthispoint,astatisticyoushouldaskforthatmostdoctorsdon'
tliketalkingabout,andpharmaceuticalcompaniesliketalkingaboutevenless.It'
sforthenumberneededtotreat.Now,whatisthis,theNNT?
It'
sthenumberofpeoplethatneedtotakeadrugorundergoasurgeryoranymedicalprocedurebeforeonepersonishelped.Andyou'
rethinking,whatkindofcrazystatisticisthat?
Thenumbershouldbeone.Mydoctorwouldn'
tprescribesomethingtomeifit'
snotgoingtohelp.Butactually,medicalpracticedoesn'
tworkthatway.Andit'
snotthedoctor'
sfault,ifit'
sanybody'
sfault,it'
sthefaultofscientistslikeme.Wehaven'
tfiguredouttheunderlyingmechanismswellenough.ButGlaxoSmithKlineestimatesthat90percentofthedrugsworkinonly30to50percentofthepeople.Sothenumberneededtotreatforthemostwidelyprescribedstatin,whatdoyousupposeitis?
Howmanypeoplehavetotakeitbeforeonepersonishelped?
300.ThisisaccordingtoresearchbyresearchpractitionersJeromeGroopmanandPamelaHartzband,independentlyconfirmedbyB.Iranthroughthenumbersmyself.300peoplehavetotakethedrugforayearbeforeoneheartattack,strokeorotheradverseeventisprevented.
08:
Nowyou'
reprobablythinking,"
Well,OK,onein300chanceofloweringmycholesterol.Whynot,doc?
Givemetheprescriptionanyway."
Butyoushouldaskatthispointforanotherstatistic,andthatis,"
Tellmeaboutthesideeffects."
Right?
Soforthisparticulardrug,thesideeffectsoccurinfivepercentofthepatients.Andtheyincludeterriblethings--debilitatingmuscleandjointpain,gastrointestinaldistress--butnowyou'
Fivepercent,notverylikelyit'
sgoingtohappentome,I'
llstilltakethedrug."
Butwaitaminute.Rememberunderstressyou'
renotthinkingclearly.Sothinkabouthowyou'
regoingtoworkthroughthisaheadoftime,soyoudon'
thavetomanufacturethechainofreasoningonthespot.300peopletakethedrug,right?
Oneperson'
shelped,fivepercentofthose300havesideeffects,that'
s15people.You'
re15timesmorelikelytobeharmedbythedrugthanyouaretobehelpedbythedrug.
09:
15
mnotsayingwhetheryoushouldtakethestatinornot.I'
mjustsayingyoushouldhavethisconversationwithyourdoctor.Medicalethicsrequiresit,it'
spartoftheprincipleofinformedconsent.Youhavetherighttohaveaccesstothiskindofinformationtobegintheconversationaboutwhetheryouwanttotaketherisksornot.
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NowyoumightbethinkingI'
vepulledthisnumberoutoftheairforshockvalue,butinfactit'
srathertypical,thisnumberneededtotreat.Forthemostwidelyperformedsurgery
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