国际金融课题讨论论文Word格式文档下载.docx
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国际金融课题讨论论文Word格式文档下载.docx
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1608091311
金融0902
13
成员
蔡天赐
1608091325
金融0903
14
李阳威
1608090112
邱宇婷
1608090124
姜慧青
1608090121
陈宝玉
1608090226
杨阳
1608090114
王虹颖
1608090118
金融0901
2009,internationalfinancialcrisisisstillexist,China'
sinternationalpaymentstransactionsslowdowngenerally,tradeingoods,services,anddirectinvestmenthavealittlereductionin2008.Currentaccount,capitalandfinancialprojectskeep"
doublesurpluses"
pattern,overall,theChineseinternationalpaymentsurplustypeimbalancesisstilloutstanding.
Keywords:
internationalfinancialcrisis、Currentaccount、capitalandfinancialaccount、doublesurpluses.
PartOneThepresentationofChineseinternationalpaymentbalance
Supposeyouhave10thousandyuan,whatwouldyoudo?
Investment?
Savingorconsuming?
Whataboutyouranswers?
Itiseasilyseenthatalargescaleofpeoplefacethisquestioneveryday.Andactuallymostofthemchoosetosavethemoneyinthebank.Fromourpointofview,thetraditionalcustomandvaluethatmaygiverisetothehighrateofdomesticsaving.What’smore,inChina,thehealthcaresystemisstillunderconstruction.Thus,thecitizenswouldsavemoremoneyinbankratherthaninvestthem.allabovecausethegraphasfollows:
Itindicatesthenetsavingquantitiesfrom2005to2009.It’sobviouslyseenthatthedataalwaysstaypositive,althoughwavinginevitably.Andthenetsavingreachthepeakin2009.Andthenextgraphrevealstherelativesavingrate.Itreferstothesavinggrowth.andwecannotignorethehighincreasingspeed.Thepeakalsoappearsinthefirstquarterof2009.
Thus,thesedataleadtoaseriesofphenomena.Firstly,alongwiththesoaringsavingratio,theproductcapacityisalsobooming.Thebothofthembringabouttheexcesssupply.Tosolvetheexcessproduct,thenationencouragesexporttoclearthem,whichcausetheinsufficientdomesticdemand.
Moreover,withthereformandopeningupinChina,thegovernmentpromotesbothenterpriseandprivateinvestmentinforeigncountries.Inaddition,theglobalizationmakesagreatcontributiontotheincreasingofforeigndirectinvestment.WecanbeclearlyinformedoftherecenttrendofFDI,equalstotheforeigndirectinvestment,whichalsostaystheincreasingtendencycontinuouslyasthesameasthesavingrate.
ThereasonswhycausethehighFDIratemainlyconsistofseveralaspectsasfollows:
lowlaborcost,thekeypointattractforeigninvestorstomovefactoriestoChina.Andthen,thegradualimprovementofmarketandinvestmentenvironmentsinceChinajoininWTO.WiththedevelopmentofChineseeconomic,wecannotneglectthehugemarketpotentialandhighinvestmentrateofreturn.
Astothedomesticeconomicpolicy,theprimarypartsaremadeupoffreetradepolicyandencourageexportpolicy.Withthedevelopmentofopeningmarket,it’sessentialforustotradewithothercountries.Asaresult,thetendencyofinternationaltradehaveadeeplyeffectonthegrowthofeconomic.However,tosomedegree,thegovernmenttendtoencourageexportthoughthelowprofit.Meanwhile,themanagementofexportisrelativelymoreflexiblethanthemanagementofimport.Governmentcarriedoutsomemeasurestolimittheofficialinstitutionstoprovidebondstoforeigncountries.
Next,combinedwiththeaboveanalysis,wewillgiveaninsightintotheoverallbalanceofpaymentinChina.It’seasilyseenthattwomainaccount,separatelycurrentaccountbalanceandcapitalaccountbalance,alwaysstaypositivefrom2005to2009,whichcansumuptoaphrase:
twinsurplus,theimportanttendencyofB.P.inChina.Itreferstothetotalvalueofcurrentaccountsurplusandcapitalaccountsurplus.
item
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Balanceofpayment
2238
2599
4453
4551
4420
Currentaccountbalance
1608
2533
3718
4361
2921
PercentageofGDP
7.20%
9.50%
11.00%
9.60%
6.10%
Capitalaccountbalance
630
67
735
190
1448
2.80%
0.30%
2.20%
0.40%
3.00%
Andthen,wewillanalyzethesetwomainaccountseparatelyindetails.
PartTwoTheAnalysisofCurrenttransfers
(reasonsandinfluences)
Inrecentyears,ourcountryininternationaltradeinthespeedoffastgrowth,Amongthem,thecurrent-accountisanimportantpartinChina'
sinternationalpayments,andisthemainpartofthenationalincome.
Inthefirsthalfof2010,thenation’stotalGDPis17,284billionyuan,Thecurrenttransfersdifferencefor5.12%GDPratio['
reiʃiəu,-ʃəu]comparedtheyear-on-yeardropnearly1%.
However,theoccupationratioisstillunderestimate.[,ʌndə'
estimeit]Now,let'
sreviewofsomeaccountunderthecurrentaccount,includingMerchandise,service,Investmentincome,Currenttransfers.
Intheseveralaccounts,wemainlyanalysisthegoodsandservicesaccounts.Oneisthebiggestcurrent-account,anotheroneistheonlydeficitproject.
First,theMerchandiseaccount.
Itisveryvisualfromthepicture,Ithasbeendecliningafter2008,combiningallaspectsofinformation,Weconcludethatourgoodstradesurplusfeatures:
Uint:
BillionsofDollals
project
year
difference
credit
debit
merchandise
2,495
12,038
9,543
3,607
14,346
10,739
3,154
12,220
9,046
2006
2,050
9,800
7,800
2005
870
6,100
Second,theserviceaccount,
Inrecentyears,ourservicerealizesthesustainable[sə'
steinəbl],stableandhealthydevelopment,Thedevelopmentofservicetradeinserviceshasbeenpromotingthegrowth.In1989,China’stotalimportandexportoftradeinservicesonlyat30intheworld,andranksto12thin2000.
However,becauseofthelowstartingpointofChina'
sservicetrade,comparedwiththedevelopedcountries,isstillabiggap,Mainlydisplaysin:
Unit:
BillionsofDollars
project
year
difference
credit
debit
service
2009
-294
1,295
1,589
2008
-118
1,471
2007
-79
1,222
1,301
-78
890
1,010
Service
740
800
Tosolvetheseproblems,alotofSuggestionshadbeenpresentedAboutOurInternationalServiceTradeDevelopment
ThenextpartisIncomeandCurrentTransfers,Thesearestillreflectedmanyproblems,butisnotthemostimportantpoint.
PartThreeTheAnalysisofCapitalandFinancialAccount
TheanalysisofCapitalFinanceAccount
1、Directinvestmenttoreducesurplus
In2009,theForeignDirectInvestmentsurplusis34.3billionU.S.dollars.Comparingwithlastyear,itreduced64%.
1)ForeigndirectinvestmentinChinadropped.
AccordingtointernationalcaliberofBalanceofpaymentsstatistics,inflowofforeigndirectinvestmentinChinais110billion.Comparingwithlastyear,itreduced32%.
TheoutflowofDivestmentliquidationis31.8billionU.S.dollars.Itincreasedto143%.Thenetofinflowis78.4billionU.S.dollars.Itdrops47%.
ThefeaturesofforeigndirectinvestmentinChinain2009:
Thephenomenonthatfinancialandnon-financialsectorsattractforeigndirectinvestmentinChinashowedadownwardtrend.FinancialsectorattractingforeigndirectinvestmentinChinais4.1billion,reducing72%.Absorptionofnon-financialsectorforeigndirectinvestment105.9billionU.S.dollars,down28%.
2)Reductionofforeigndirectinvestment.
In2009,China'
sforeigndirectinvestmentis48.1billion,down14%overthepreviousyear;
theoutflowofDivestmentliquidationinforeigndirectinvestmentis4.5billionU.S.dollars,increasing91%.Thenetoutflowis43.9billion,down18%.
China'
sforeigndirectinvestmentin2009,themainfeaturesare:
Financialandnon-financialsectorsofforeigndirectinvestmentshoweddifferenttrends.
Foreigndirectinvestmentinthefinancialsectoris4.7billion,down69%andnon-financialsectorforeigndirectinvestmentis43.4billionU.S.dollars,withanincreaseof7%.
2、Netinflowofportfolioinvestmenthasslightlydecreased.
In2009,thenetinflowofportfolioinvestmentis38.7billionU.S.dollars,down9%overthepreviousyear.Amongthem,China'
sforeignportfolioinvestmentnetreturnis9.9billion,reducing70%overlastyear;
thenetinflowofportfolioinvestmentfromoutsideis28.8billionU.S.dollars,increasing191%.
3、Otherinvestmentturnnetoutflowintonetinflow.
In2009,thenetinflowofloans,tradecredits,currencyanddepositsis67.9billionU.S.dollars.Amongthem,China'
snetforeignassetsofotherinvestmentreturnis9.4billion,anetforeigninflowofotherinvestmentinChinais58.5billionU.S.dollars.
Thecapitalprojectaccountsfor2.7%inthecapitalandthemonetaryitems,themonetaryitemsaccountsfor97.3%.Inthemonetaryitems,thedirectinvestmentaccountsfor24.3%,theportfolioinvestmentaccountsfor27.5%,otherinvestmentsaccountfor48.2%。
ThereasonthatCapitalFinanceAccountsurplus:
ForeigndirectinvestmentinChinaincreasedquickly.China'
seconomicdevelopmentisrarelyusedbyloanbasis,butmainlyusedbyforeigndirectinvestmentFDIandintroduceexternalcapitalandtechnology.Inaddition,alllevelsofgovernmenthavealsoimplementedmanypreferentialpoliciestoattractforeigncapitaltoinvestinlocal.AsaresulttherapidgrowthofFDIbecomestheimportantreasonsforthecapitalandfinancialaccountsurpluscontinuing.
InfluenceofCapitalandfinancialaccountcontinuingsurplus:
1.Thenationalincomeincreases.
2.finance
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