雅思备考练习提升Sunset for the Oil Busines更新Word格式.docx
- 文档编号:22568962
- 上传时间:2023-02-04
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:23
- 大小:34.87KB
雅思备考练习提升Sunset for the Oil Busines更新Word格式.docx
《雅思备考练习提升Sunset for the Oil Busines更新Word格式.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《雅思备考练习提升Sunset for the Oil Busines更新Word格式.docx(23页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
Theansweriseasy:
Yes.Nobodyseriouslydisputesthenotionthatoilis,forallpracticalpurposes,anon-renewableresourcethatwillrunoutsomeday,bethatyearsordecadesaway.Theharderquestionisdeterminingwhenpreciselyoilwillbegintogetscarce.AndansweringthatquestioninvolvesscalingHubbert’speak.
M.KingHubbert,aShellgeologistoflegendarystatusamongdepletionexperts,forecastin1956thatoilproductionintheUnitedStateswouldpeakintheearly1970sandthenslowlydecline,insomethingresemblingabell-shapedcurve.Atthetime,hisforecastwascontroversial,andmanyrubbishedit.After1970,however,empiricalevidenceprovedhimcorrect:
oilproductioninAmericadidindeedpeakandhasbeenindeclineeversince.
DrHubbert’sanalysisdrewontheobservationthatoilproductioninanewareatypicallyrisesquicklyatfirst,astheeasiestandcheapestreservesaretapped.Overtime,reservoirsageandgointodecline,andsoliftingoilbecomesmoreexpensive.Oilfromthatareathenbecomeslesscompetitiveinrelationtoothersourcesoffuel.Asaresult,productionslowsdownandusuallytapersoffanddeclines.That,heargued,madeforabell-shapedcurve.
Hissuccessfulpredictionhasemboldenedanewgenerationofgeologiststoapplyhismethodologyonaglobalscale.ChiefamongthemaretheexpertsatODAC,whoworrythattheglobalpeakinproductionwillcomeinthenextdecade.DrCampbellusedtoarguethatthepeakshouldhavecomealready;
henowthinksitisjustroundthecomer.Aheavyweighthasnowjoinedthisgloomychorus.KennethDeffeyesofPrincetonUniversityarguesinalivelynewbookthatglobaloilproductioncouldpeakwithinthenextfewyears.
Thatsharplycontradictsmainstreamthinking.AmericasGeologicalSurveypreparedanexhaustivestudyofoildepletionlastyearthatputthepeakofproductionsomedecadesoff.TheIEAhasjustweighedinwithitsnewWorldEnergyOutlook,whichforeseesenoughoiltocomfortablymeetdemandto2020fromremainingreserves.ReneDahan,oneoftheExxonMobil’stopmanagers,toesfurther:
withanassurancecharacteristicoftheworld’slargestenergycompany,heinsiststhattheworldwillbeawashinoilforanother70years.Whoisright?
Inmakingsenseofthesewildlyopposingviews,itisusefultolookbackatthepitifulhistoryofoilforecasting.Doomstershavebeenpredictingdrywellssincethe1970s,butsofartheoilisstillgushing.Nearlyallthepredictionsfor2000madeafterthe1970soilshockswerefartoopessimistic.
MichaelLynchofDRI-WEFA,aneconomicconsultancy,isoneofthefewoilforecasterswhohasgotthingsgenerallyright.Inanewpaper,DrLynchanalysesthosehistoricalforecasts.Hefindsevidenceofbothbiasandrecurringerrors,whichsuggeststhatmethodologicalmistakes(ratherthanjustpoordata)weretheproblem.Inparticular,hecriticizedforecasterswhousedHubbert-styleanalysisforrelyingonfixedestimatesofhowmuchultimatelyrecoverable"
oiltherereallyisbelowground.Thatfigure,heinsists,isactuallyadynamicone,asimprovementsininfrastructure,knowledgeandtechnologyraisetheamountofoilwhichisrecoverable.
Thatpointstowhatwillprobablydeterminewhetherthepessimistsortheoptimistsareright:
technologicalinnovation.Thefirstcamptendstobedismissiveofclaimsofforthcomingtechnologicalrevolutionsinsuchareasasdeep-waterdrillingandenhancedrecovery.DrDeffeyescapturesthisend-of-technologymindsetwell.Hearguesthatbecausetheindustryhasalreadyspentbillionsontechnologydevelopment,itmakesitdifficulttoasktodayfornewtechnology,asmostofthewheelshavealreadybeeninvented.
Yettechno-optimistsarguethatthetechnologicalrevolutioninoilhasonlyjustbegun.
Averagerecoveryrates(howmuchoftheknownoilinareservoircanactuallybebroughttothesurface)arestillonlyaround30-35%.Industryoptimistsbelievethatnewtechniquesonthedrawingboardtodaycouldliftthatfigureto50-60%withinadecade.
Giventheindustrysastonishingtrackrecordofinnovation,itmaybefoolishtobetagainstit.Thatistheresultofadversity:
theoilcrisisofthe1970sforcedBigOiltodevelopreservesinexpensive,inaccessibleplacessuchastheNorthSeaandAlaska,underminingDrHubbert’sassumptionthatcheapreservesaredevelopedfirst.Theresultingupstreaminvestmentshavedrivendownthecostoffindinganddevelopingwellsoverthelasttwodecadesfromover$20abarreltoaround$6abarrel.Thecostofproducingoilhasfallenbyhalf,tounder$4abarrel.
Suchmiracleswillnotcomecheap,however,sincemuchoftheworld’soilisnowproducedinageingfieldsthatarerapidlydeclining.TheIEAconcludesthatglobaloilproductionneednotpeakinthenexttwodecadesifthenecessaryinvestmentsaremade.Sohowmuchisnecessary?
Ifoilcompaniesaretoreplacetheoutputlostatthoseageingfieldsandmeettheworld’sever-risingdemandforoil,theagencyreckonstheymustinvest$1trillioninnon-OPECcountriesoverthenextdecadealone.Ouch.
Questions27-31
DothefollowingstatementsagreewiththeinformationgiveninReadingPassage3?
Inboxes27-31onyouranswersheet,write
YESifthestatementagreeswiththeinformation
NOifthestatementcontradictstheinformation
NOTGIVENifthereisnoinformationonthis
27Hubberthasahigh-profilereputationamongstODACmembers.
28Oilislikelytolastlongerthansomeotherenergysources.
29Themajorityofgeologistsbelievethatoilwillstarttorunoutsometimethis
decade.
30Over50percentoftheoilweknowaboutiscurrentlybeingrecovered.
31HistoryhasshownthatsomeofHubbert’sprinciplesweremistaken.
Questions32-35
CompletethesentencesbelowusingNOMORETHANONEWORDOR
NUMBERfromthepassage.
Writeyouranswersinboxes32-35onyouranswersheet.
ManypeoplebelievedHubbert’stheorywas32_________whenitwasoriginallypresented.
Therecoveryoftheoilgetsmore34______asthereservoirgetsolder.
Theoilfieldcan’tbeas35_____asotherareas.
Questions36-40
Lookatthefollowingstatements(Questions36-40)andthelistofpeoplebelow;
Matcheachstatementwiththecorrectperson,A-E.
Writethecorrectletter,A-E,inboxes36-40onyouranswersheet.
36hasfoundfaultingeologicalresearchprocedure.
37hasprovidedthelongest-rangeforecastregardingoilsupply.
38hasconvincedothersthatoilproductionwillfollowaparticularmodel.
39hasaccusedfellowscientistsofrefusingtoseethetruth.
40hasexpresseddoubtoverwhetherimprovedmethodsofextractingoilare
possible.
AColinCampbell
BM.KingHubbert
CKennethDeffeyes
DReneDahan
EMichaelLynch
显示答案
27Yes
28NotGiven
29No
30No
31Yes
32controversial
33tapped
34expensive
35competitive
36E
37D
38B
39A
40C
题目详解
27.利用细节信息“Hubbert”和“ODAC”定位于原文第三段第一句话“M.KingHubbert,aShellgeologistoflegendarystatusamongdepletionexperts…”。
原文中他是一个“geologistoflegendarystatus”对应题目信息“high-profilereputation”。
题目与原文是同意表达,所以答案为Yes。
28按照顺序性原则和细节信息“otherenergysources”定位于原文第四段第二句话“Oilfromthatareathenbecomeslesscompetitiveinrelationtoothersourcesoffuel。
但是这里并没有提及题目中所说的“lastlongerthansomeotherenergysources”,只是说石油作为能源不再有竞争力而已。
题目信息在原文基础上无法判断,所以答案为NotGiven
29.按照顺序性原则和细节信息“Themajorityofgeologists”和“thisdecade”定位于
厚文第五段第二句话“ChiefamongthemaretheexpertsatODAC,whoworrythatthe
globalpeakinproductionwillcomeinthenextdecade”,原文明显在这里提及大多数地
质学家认^;
,在“nextdecade”石油的生产会达到顶峰,而非“starttorunout”。
题
目信息与原文信息正好相反,所以答案为No。
30利用细信息50percent和“recovered”定位于原文倒数第三段“Averagerecoveryrates(howmuchoftheknownoilinareservoircanactuallybebroughttothesurface)arestillonlyaround30-35%.Industryoptimistsbelievethatnewtechniquesonthedrawingboardtodaycouldliftthatfigureto50-60%withinadecade”。
原文这里明显提及目前的油井提取率只能达到30-35%,50%是在未来人们可能达到的开采率,而不是现在。
题目信息与原文信息正好相反,所以答案为No。
31利用顺序性原则和细节彳目息“Hubbert’sPrinciples”定位于原文倒数第二段第二句话…underminingDr.Hubbert’sassumptionthatcheapreservesaredevelopedfirt题目信息“someofHubbert’sprinciplesweremistaken”应原文“underminingDr.Hub-bert’sassumption”。
32.利用细节信息“Hubbert’stheory”和“originallypresented”定位于原文第三段第二
句话“Atthetime,hisforecastwascontroversial,andmanyrubbishedit”。
因为题目说
“Manypeoplebelieve...”,所以正确答案只能填controversial,而不能填rubbished。
33利用细节信息“newoilfield”和“easytorise”定位于原文第四段第一句话“oilproductioninanewareatypicallyrisesquicklyatfirst,astheeasiestandcheapestreservesaretapped”,这里“newarea”对应题目信息“newoilfield”,“risesquicklyatfirst”对应题目“easytorise”,所以正确答案为tapped。
34从利用细节信息“thereservoirgetsolder”定位于原文第四段第二句话”…ageandgointodecline,andsoliftingoilbecomesmoreexpensive”,这里“reservoirsage”对应题目信息“thereservoirgetsolder'
所以正确答案为expensive。
35利用顺序性原则
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 雅思备考练习提升Sunset for the Oil Busines更新 雅思 备考 练习 提升 Sunset Busines 更新