Chinaon top of the worldWord文件下载.docx
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Chinaon top of the worldWord文件下载.docx
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ThecountryisabouttoeclipsetheUSasthelargesteconomybutdominanceisstillfaroff
Intwoessays,theFT’schiefeconomicscommentatorandAsiaeditorexaminethesignificanceofChina’simminentemergenceastheworld’sbiggesteconomy
UShegemonywilllastforyears,writesMartinWolf
ThisweekwelearntthatChinaisabouttoovertaketheUSastheworld’slargesteconomy.Sincethelatterisbelievedtohavehadtheworld’slargesteconomysincetheearly1870s,thisisanoteworthymoment.Butitisnotasnoteworthyasmanyfearandothershope.
Startwithwhatthesecalculations,derivedfromtheWorldBank’slongstandinginternationalcomparisonsproject,mean.Thisisanattempttocomparestandardsoflivingacrosscountries.In2011,China’sgrossdomesticproductperheadatmarketexchangerateswasjust11percentofUSlevels.ButoncethelowpricesofmanyofChina’srelativelynon-tradeablegoodsandservicesaretakenintoaccount,thisrosetoafifthofUSpurchasingpowerperhead.
Nevertheless,Chinaisstillapoorcountry:
thepurchasingpowerofitsGDPperheadwas99thintheworld.SinceChinaalsoinvestsclosetohalfitsoutput,relativeconsumptionperheadwaslowerstill.
Chinais,however,anenormouscountry,withapopulationof1.34bnin2011.Comparedwiththis,eventheUS,with312m,isalmostaminnow.Soinspiteofbeingsomuchpoorer,thepurchasingpowerofaggregateChineseGDPwas87percentofUSlevelsin2011.ThepurchasingpowerofChina’sGDPhasbynowsurelysurpassedUSlevels.
Itispossibletodebatewhetherthenewlyrevisednumbersareright.Theansweristhattheyarereasonable.Amoreimportantquestioniswhattheymean.WhattheydonotmeanisthatChinaisalreadytheworld’sgreatesteconomicpower.
Chinaisahugetradingpower.Itsexportsofgoodslastyearwere14percentbiggerthanthoseoftheUS.Butitsimportsofgoodswere31percentsmaller.Itisthesizeofthemarketacountryoffersthatdeterminesitscloutinglobalbargaining.Chinaisnottheworld’slargestimporteryet.Asitseconomycontinuestogrowrelativelyrapidly,itwillbecometheworld’slargestsoon.
Adifferentdimensionofeconomicpowerisholdingsofforeignexchangereserves.China’stotalof$4tninMarchisgigantic.Butthisisatleastasmuchasourceofweaknessasofstrength.Overmanyyears,Chinahasaccumulatedassetswesterncentralbankscancreateinaheartbeatbypressingafewkeys.Yes,Chinacoulddumptheseassets.Butitwouldbethechiefloser.Inoursavings-glutworld,theUScouldreadilyfindotherbuyers.
USfinancialmarketsandfinancialcompaniesareatthecentreoftheglobalfinancialsystem.ThisgivesAmericaexceptionalinfluenceovertheshapeofglobalfinanceanddetailsofglobalregulation.Theprobabilityisthatthiswillremaintrueforalongtime,partlybecausetheChinesefinancialsystemconfrontsmanychallengesinmanagingitsexitfromagiganticcreditboom.
Anotherdimensionofglobaleconomicinfluenceistechnology.AnindicationthatChinaremainswellbehindisthateconomywideaverageproductivityremainsafifthofUSlevels.Evenmoreimportantistheabsenceofworld-leadingChinesetechnologycompanies,withtheprincipalexceptionofHuawei.TheUS,bycomparison,hostsanumberofworld-leadingcompanies.
ThetechnologicaledgeandscaleofUSspendingondefencegivesitsmilitaryglobalreachandpower.Thatislikelytolastforquitesometime.TheUSisalsoineffectahugeisland,withrelativelyweakandfriendlyneighbourstoitsnorthandsouth.China,ontheotherhand,issurroundedbypowerfulandjealouscountries.AndtheUShaslongbeenabletocreatepowerfulalliancesystems.Chinahasfailedtomatchthat.
TheUSpossesses“soft”advantages,too:
aninfluentialpopularculture;
theworld’sleadinginstitutionsofhigherlearning;
anunmatchedscientificbase;
andacommitmenttotheidealsoffreedomanddemocracythatremainattractivetomuchoftheworld,howeverfarshortithassofrequentlyfalleninpractice.TomuchoftherestoftheworldChina’spoliticalsystemisfarlessattractiveanditshistoricculturefarmorealienthanthatoftheUS.
Overtime,wecanconfidentlyexpecttheChineseeconomytocontinuetoincreaseinrelativesize.Thesameistrueofthecountry’stechnologicallevelandmilitarycapacity.ButitwillbealongtimebeforetherisingcolossuswillmatchtheabilityoftheUStoinfluencetheworld,providedthelatteriswiselygoverned.
YetitisalsotruethatwearemovingintoanerainwhichChina’srisingpowerandinfluencemustberecognisedandaccommodated,notablyinglobalgovernance.Suchtransitionsinpoweraredifficult.
Inthiscase,theyarelikelytoproveparticularlytricky,givenhowdifferentthetwopowersare.Thelatestannouncementisanothersteponwhatwillprovetobealongandwindingjourney.
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Chinaisalreadychangingtheworld,writesDavidPilling
WhenDengXiaopingsaid“hideyourbrightness,cherishobscurity”,hehadnotcountedonthemeddlingstatisticiansattheInternationalComparisonProgram.Thisweek,theICP,astatisticalcollaborationhostedbytheWorldBank,“outed”Chinaaspoisedtobecometheworld’sbiggesteconomythisyearmeasuredbypurchasingpower.
InlinewiththeadviceofthefatherofChinesereform,whothoughtChina’srisewouldbebestservedbydownplayingitsambition,Beijingwasnothappy.IntheICPreport,publishedthisweek,China’sNationalBureauofStatisticsexpressedreservationsaboutthemethodologyandsaiditdid“notendorsetheresultsasofficialstatistics”.Thetightlycontrolledmedia,farfromtrumpetingthenewsofChina’ssuddenelevationtotheworld’seconomicsummit,playeditdownorignoreditaltogether.“TheChineseunderstandthatthisisanaccountingexercise,notasubstantivemilestone,”saysMinxinPei,directorforinternationalstudiesatClaremontMcKennaCollegeinCalifornia.
Inonesense,China’smodestyreflectsafirmgriponreality.Chinaisamiddle-incomecountryatbest,withpercapitaincomesomewhatbelowthatofPeru.ItstechnologicalcapabilitiesarefarbehindtheUSandotherwesterneconomies,includinghistoricadversaryJapan.MilitarilyithasnothingliketheglobalcloutoftheUS.Itspowersofpersuasionarealsolacking.Chinadoesnothaveasufficientlyattractivepoliticalsystemtoinfluenceglobalopinion.ItsclosestalliesarethelikesofNorthKoreaandPakistan.MaoYushi,the85-year-oldeconomistwhoisconsideredoneoftheintellectualauthorsofChina’seconomicmodernisation,takesastudiouslyrealisticviewofthenewnumbers.HeacceptsthatChinaistheworld’sbiggesteconomybutconsidersthistobenothingmorethanareflectionofthefactthatitishometo1.36bnpeople,morethananyothernation.
“ItisnotasurprisethatChina’seconomyisbigbutthisisjustbecauseitspopulationisbig,”saysMrMao.“Chinaisbig,butnotstrong.”
Chinesepeople,whohavebeen“humiliated”bytheircountry’sweaknesssincethe19thcentury,aredelightedatthenewfoundeconomicprowess,hesays.Butinotheraspects,itisobviousthatChinaisbehind.“Chinacontributesverylittletoscientificadvancement . . . China’spoliticsarenotdemocraticandtherearemanyunstablefactorsinChinesesociety.”
MrMao,purgedrepeatedlyduringtheMaoisteraandevennowconsideredtohaveriskyviews,isamongthosewhopredictabigfinancialcrisisasaresultofover-investmentandtoweringdebts.
Yet,arguesMartinJacques,authorofWhenChinaRulestheWorld,itisperpetualpredictionsofsystemicimplosionthathavepreventedourseeingwhatshouldbeblindinglyobvious:
China’srisewillchangetheworld.“There’sstilladenialaboutChina,aninabilitytoseetheunderlyingtrend,”hesays.Chinahaspassedvariousmilestones–biggestexporter,biggestmanufacturer,biggestcarbonemitter–morequicklythanalmostanyonepredicted.There’sareasonablechance,hepredicts,thatby2030,ChinawillaccountforathirdofglobaloutputandhaveaneconomylargerthanthatofEuropeandtheUScombined.“Alotofthisisbelowtheradar.Sowhenyougetamomentlikethis–asorpasso–it’sawake-upcall.”
China’srisehaschangedtheworldalready.Bybecomingtheglobe’slow-costfactory,ithascutthecostofmanufacturedgoods.Thathasincreasedconsumers’purchasingpower,althoughcompetitionfromhundredsofmillionsofChineseworkersmayhaveloweredwesternwagesintheprocess.
Asahugeimporterofrawmaterials,ChinahasbeguntoalterthefatesofcommodityexportersfromBraziltoAustraliaandfromMongoliatoAngola.IfAfrica’seconomyisfinallystirringthatisinnosmallmeasureduetoChinesedemand.
MrMao,thoughacriticofmanyaspectsofChina’spoliticaleconomy,isclearthat“Chinahasmadearemarkablecontributiontotheworldeconomy”andthatithasmuchtoteachotherdevelopingcountries.
Strategically,too,althoughChinapossessesnothinglikethemilitarymightoftheUS,itisalreadyhavinganimpactregionallywhereitisassertingclaimsoverhistoricspheresofinfluence.ThatexplainsheightenedfrictionwithJapanovertheSenkaku/DiaoyuislandsandwithVietnam,thePhilippinesandothersovertheSouthChinaSea.
MrJacques,whoconsidersAmerica’s“hegemonic”postwarroleinAsiaasunsustainable,regardstheseructionsas“thefirstgrowingpainsofanewChina-centricorderintheregion”.Speakitsoftly,butChinahasalreadyarrived.
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