美国数学建模提交论文模板Word下载.docx
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美国数学建模提交论文模板Word下载.docx
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2014MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM)SummarySheet
Summary
TheKeep-Right-Except-To-PassRulehasgotalonghistoryinmostcountriesandthescientificevaluationoftherulehasnotbeenexplicit.Inthispaper,threemodelsareconstructedtostudythetrafficflow,security,speedandthemutualinfluenceamongthemunderthisrule.Asaresult,wegetdifferentoutputsbychangingthethreefactors.Atlast,basedontheseoutputsweevaluatehowtheruleinfluencesthetrafficperformance.Furthermoreweputforwardabetterrulebycomparingdifferentrules.
Inmodel1,animprovedsafetyperformancefunctionisestablished.First,weanalyzehowtrafficsafetyrelatetoovertakingbyusingtheminimumsafetyspacingandanimprovedsafetyindex.Thenwegettherateofcollision.Aninfluentialcoefficientisproposedtoassesshowdrivingontherightinfluencestrafficsafety.Thetrafficsafetycoefficientiscalculatedbyusingthefuzzymathematicsbasedinterval-valuedfuzzysettheory.Atlastweaddthesafetycoefficientintothesafetyperformancefunctionandgetanimprovedsafetyperformancefunction.Basedontheimprovedsafetyperformancefunction,wegetsomeconclusions.Thatis,inlighttraffic,theaccidentfrequenciesincreasewiththeincreasingoftrafficflowwhileinheavytraffic,theaccidentfrequenciesdecreasewiththeincreasingoftrafficflow.
Model2dealswiththerelationshipbetweenthetrafficflowandtrafficspeed.Thebasisofthemodelisthetrafficsafety.Anequationisestablishedaboutthetrafficflowandtrafficspeedusingthebasicmodeloftrafficflow.Byanalyzingthepropertyoftheperformancefunction,weobtainthatthetrafficspeedincreaseswiththeincreasingoftrafficflowinlighttraffic.However,inheavytraffic,thetrafficspeeddecreaseswiththeincreasingoftrafficflow.
Model3combinesmodel1andmodel2.Basedonmodel1and2webuildathree-dimensionalmodeloftrafficsafety,trafficspeedandtrafficflow.Bychangingthethreefactors,wegetsomeresults.First,undertheKeep-Right-Except-To-PassRule,abetterpointcanbeobtainedwherethetrafficflowandspeedisrelativelyhighandtheaccidentfrequencyislow.Thenwechangetherulefromrighttoleft,wefindthatthevalueoftheinfluentialcoefficientincreases,whichindicatestheincreasingoftheaccidentfrequency.Meanwhilethetrafficflowincreasesinlighttrafficbutdecreasesinheavytraffic.Asfortheintelligenttrafficsystem,wegivesomequalitativeanalysis.
Finally,theadvantagesanddisadvantagesoftheabovemodelsarediscussedandsomefutureimprovementsareproposed.
Drivingontherightorleft
Model3combinesmodel1andmodel2.Basedonmodel1and2webuildathree-dimensionalmodeloftrafficsafety,trafficspeedandtrafficflow.Bychangingthesethreefactors,wegetsomeresults.First,undertheKeep-Right-Except-To-PassRule,abetterpointcanbeobtainedwherethetrafficflowandspeedisrelativelyhighandtheaccidentfrequencyislow.Thenwechangetherulefromrighttoleft,wefindthatthevalueoftheinfluentialcoefficientincreases,whichindicatestheincreasingoftheaccidentfrequency.Meanwhilethetrafficflowincreasesinlighttrafficbutdecreasesinheavytraffic.Asfortheintelligenttrafficsystem,wegivesomequalitativeanalysis.
Keywords:
roadtraffic,performancefunction,trafficflow,trafficspeed,trafficsafety,fuzzymathematics
Introduction
Withthedevelopmentofsociety,theproblemofthetrafficsystemhasbeenabigproblemandtheestablishmentofthetrafficsystemhasbeeninbadlyneed.InAmericathetrafficspeeddecreasedtonomorethan
duetohightrafficdensityduringpeak-houronthefreewayin1990s.Asaresulttheproblemcausedgreateconomiccost.[1][2]Toimprovethetrafficperformancewestudyhowthetrafficperformanceisinfluencedbysomefactorsbasingonthekeep-right-except-to-passtrafficrule.
Inmostcountriesdrivingontherightistheruleandinothercountriesdrivingontheleftistherule.Sodrivingruleslikethismayhaveaninfluenceontrafficperformance.Theinfluencefactorsincludethetrafficflow,thetrafficsafetyandtrafficspeedwhichisrelatedtothetrafficspeedlimits.Basingonthesefactorsweshouldanalyzethemutualeffectamongthemandgettheevaluationofthetrafficperformance.Themodelisconstructedbasedontheruleofdrivingright,sowhentheruleischanged,weshouldanalyzetheresultsandfindabetterrulewhichcanimprovethetrafficflow.Furthermorewhenthetrafficsystemisintelligent,theresultsaredifferentbasedthemodelwehavebuilt.
Nowtherearemanystudiesabouttrafficperformanceincludingsomesystemsoftrafficsafety,lanechangingmodelsandsoon.Howeverthesestudiesnearlyneglecttheinfluenceofthetrafficrulessuchasthekeep-right-except-to-passtrafficrule.Soourmodeltakethetrafficruleintoconsiderationandthatistosayweconstructmodelsbasingonthisrule.
Inaddition,tosimplifyourmodelweonlyconsidertrafficsafety,trafficflowandtrafficspeed.Weusesomeindextoquantifyallthefactorsinordertoassessthetrafficperformance.Soourmodelcanhelppeopletofindabettertrafficperformancebasedondifferentrules.
Assumptions
●Wedonottakethevehicletypeintoconsiderationwhenweconstructmodels.
●Wedonotconsidertheinfluenceofthebadnaturalenvironmentonthetraffic.
●Theroadconditionisnormal.
Model1:
showingtherelationshipbetweentrafficsafetyandflow.
Weknowthetrafficsafetyisacomplexsystemanditisinfluencedbymanyfactors.Hereweuseexpectedaccidentfrequenciestorepresenttrafficsafety.Theexpectedaccidentfrequencymeansthenumberofaccidentsbytype,expectedtooccurontheentityinacertainperiod,perunitoftime[3].Tosimplifythefollowingdiscussions,weassumethat:
●Trafficflowisthemaincasualfactorswhichaffectaccidentfrequencies.Butwealsoconsidersomesmallfactorsincludingtrafficspeed,overtaking,anddrivingrules.
●Whenweanalysistheovertakingbehavior,weonlyconsidertwocars.Thatistosaytherearenoothercarswhichinfluencethem.
●Whenweconsiderovertakingbehavior,wethinklane-changingandmergingbehaviorissymmetric.MeanwhilewethinkwhenOovertakeBtheminimumsafetydistanceisnomorethanthedistanceoflane-changing[4].
●Tosimplifycalculating,weassumethatOisinthestateofuniformlyacceleratedmotionwhenitchangslanesandBisinthestateofuniformmotion.
Step1:
consideringhowovertakinginfluencestrafficsafety.
Table1
Notations
Parameters
Meaning
Q
Thetrafficflow
Theminimumsafetydistance
Thedistancebetweenthetwocar
TheinitialvelocityofcarO
TheinitialvelocityofcarB
TheexpectedvelocityofcarO
Under-postedspeedlimit
Over-postedspeedlimit
ThemaximumbrakeaccelerationofcarB
TheinitialaccelerationspeedofcarO
Figure1theprocessofovertaking
Theovertakingbehaviorincludesthreestepswhicharelane-changing,passingandmergingbehavior.Accordingtotheassumptions,weonlyconsiderlane-changing.Hereweusetheminimumsafetydistancetoanalyzethesafety.
Inthemodeloflane-changingthatisputforwardbyUniversityofSouthernCalifornia,theminimumsafetydistanceis[5]
(1)
Where
meanstheaccelerationspeedofcarOatcertainmoment.
meanstheaccelerationspeedofcarBatcertainmoment.
Accord
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