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AdvancingRandomizedTrialsinCrimeandJustice
DavidWeisburd
HebrewUniversityandUniversityofMaryland
LorraineMazerolle
GriffithUniversity
and
AnthonyPetrosino
LearningInnovationsatWestEd
TheAcademyofExperimentalCriminology(AEC)wasfoundedin1999toadvancetheuseofrandomizedtrialsincrimeandjusticeresearchandrecognizecriminologistswhohavesuccessfullyledrandomizedfieldexperimentsincriminology.Thefounders,primarilycriminologistsactiveintheAmericanSocietyofCriminology,wantedtocreateavehicletofocusattentiononexperimentersandcreateaplatformtosupportandencourageexperimentalapproachesincriminologicalinquiry.Experimentalcriminologyhad,forsomeyears,occupiedasmall,yetsignificantnichewithincriminology.TheAECfoundersbelieved,however,thatadedicatedforumspecificallydevotedtoexperimentsandtheircontributionscouldsupportnewcomerstothefield,createsynergiesamongstthosealreadyconductingexperiments,helpincreasetheuptakeofexperimentalfindingsbypolicymakers,andgenerallyfacilitatediscoursearoundthedesign,implementation,managementandoutcomesfromexperimentalresearch.
InthefirstfiveyearsofthedevelopmentoftheAEC,weprimarilyfocusedonidentifyingandhonoringindividualswhohadmadesubstantivecontributionstocriminologyandcriminaljusticepracticethroughexperimentalresearchmethods.Thesescholars,whoareidentifiedbelow,areessentiallythe“founders”ofmodernexperimentalcriminology,andtheirworkcollectivelyrepresentstheimportantrolethatexperimentationplaysinourprofession.Since2003,theAECalsobegantorecognizeotherpersonswhohavemadesubstantialcontributionstotheadvancementofexperimentalcriminology,buthavenot,themselvesconductedrandomizedfieldtrials.ThesepeopleareelectedasHonoraryFellows.In2005,theAECFellowsvotedtocreateamembershipgroupopentoanypersoninterestedinexperimentalresearchincriminology.
Withthecreationofamembershipgroup,theAcademybegantodevelopasaformalorganization.Wenowpublishanewslettertwiceayear,whichcanbeviewedonourwebsiteathttp:
//www.crim.upenn.edu/aec;
theAECsponsorstheJournalofExperimentalCriminology,publishedbySpringerVerlagsince2005;
anditawardstwoprizeseachyeartorecognizeoutstandingscholarshipinexperimentalcriminology:
theJoanMcCordAwardandtheEarlyCareerExperimentalScholarAward(seebelowfordetails).
WethinkthatadiscussionoftheAECmustbeginbyplacingexperimentalcriminologyincontext.Accordingly,webeginourarticlebydescribingwhyrandomizedexperimentsshouldbeimportantincrimeandjusticeresearchandprovideabriefhistoryofrandomizedexperimentsincriminology.WethendescribetheworkoftheAcademyanditsmembershipgroup,anditseffortstoadvanceexperimentalresearchincrimeandjustice.Wehopethatouressaywillencouragediscussionofexperimentalmethodsincriminology,andencourageinterestintheAcademyofExperimentalCriminology.
Whyarerandomizedtrialsimportant?
Arandomizedexperimentisatypeofresearchdesignthatusesrandomallocationtogainequivalencebetweenthesubjectsorunitsstudied.Randomizedexperimentsmaybeusedtotestboththeoreticalandsubstantivequestions.Incriminologyandcriminaljustice,however,randomizedexperimentsaremostcommoninevaluationsoftreatmentsandinterventionprograms.Whenusedoutsidethelaboratoryandinanactualfieldsettingsuchasaprisonorcommunity,theyarereferredtoasrandomizedfieldexperimentsorrandomizedfieldtrials.Thereisbroadagreementamongsocialandbehavioralscientiststhatrandomizedexperimentsprovidethebestmethodfordrawingcausalinferencesbetweentreatmentsandprogramsandtheiroutcomes.
Thekeytounderstandingthestrengthofexperimentalresearchdesignsisthe“internalvalidity”ofastudy.Aresearchdesigninwhichtheeffectsoftreatmentorinterventioncanbeclearlydistinguishedfromothereffectshashigh“internalvalidity.”Inrandomizedexperimentalstudies,internalvalidityisgainedthroughtheprocessofrandomallocationoftheunitsoftreatmentorinterventiontoexperimentalandcontrolorcomparisongroups.Theresultofrandomizationisthattheresearcherhasrandomizedallotherfactorsbesidestreatmentitself,andremovesanypotentialsystematicbiasthatcomesfromprovidingoneparticulartypeofsubjecttreatmentandanothertypeofsubjectthecontrolorcomparisoncondition.Althoughthegroupsarenotnecessarilythesameoneverycharacteristic—indeedsimplybychance,therearelikelytobedifferences—suchdifferencesareassumedtoberandomlydistributed,andthereforepartandparcelofthestochasticprocessestakenintoaccountinstatisticaltests.
Randomallocationthusallowstheresearchertoassumethattheonlylogicalexplanationforanysystematicdifferencesbetweenthetreatmentandcomparisongroupsareduetothetreatmentsorinterventionsapplied.Whenthestudyiscomplete,theresearchercanarguewithconfidencethatifadifferencehasbeenobservedbetweentreatmentandcomparisongroups,itislikelytheresultofthetreatmentitself(sincerandomizationhasisolatedthetreatmenteffectfromotherpossiblecauses).Innon-randomizedstudies,itismuchmoredifficulttomakethisclaimbecauseofthedifficultyofcontrollingforbothmeasuredandunmeasuredfactorsorinfluences.Forthisreason,randomizedexperimentshaveoftenbeendescribedasthe“goldstandard”forevaluationresearch.
Thereisconsiderabledebatebothamongcriminologistsandacrossotherfields(e.g.,educationormedicine)astothetypeofbiasthatresultsfromrelyingonevidencefromnon-randomizedevaluationsasopposedtorandomizedexperimentstodeterminetreatmentorprogrameffects.Somescholarshavearguedthatthedifferencesbetweenwell-designednon-randomizedstudiesandrandomizedexperimentsarenotlarge(LipseyandWilson,1993).However,areviewofalargenumberofcriminaljusticeevaluationssuggeststhatnon-randomizedstudiesarelikelytosystematicallyover-estimateprogramsuccess(Weisburd,LumandPetrosino,2001).Mostexperimentsincriminologyinvolvetherandomassignmentofindividuals.Butwhenlargerentitiessuchasschools,policebeats,orprisonlivingunitsarerandomlyassigned,theyaresometimesreferredtoasclusterrandomizedorplace-basedtrials.
RandomizedExperimentsinCriminology
RonaldFisherisoftencreditedwiththefirstdiscussionofusingrandomizationtoensureequivalentgroupsinagriculturalresearch.Hisworkappearedinhis1935treatiseentitled“DesignofExperiments.”Thefirstreportinaprofessionaljournaloftheresultsofarandomizedexperimentinanyfieldwasprobablythetestofstreptomycinforpulmonarytuberculosisin1948.ThefirstrandomizedexperimentconductedincriminologyiscommonlybelievedtobetheCambridge-SomervilleYouthStudy(PowersandWitmer1951).Inthatexperiment,investigatorsfirstmatchedindividualparticipants(youthsnominatedbyteachersorpoliceas“troubledkids”)oncertaincharacteristicsandthenrandomlyassignedonetotheinnovationgroupreceivingcounselingandtheothertoacontrolgroupreceivingnocounseling.Investigatorshavecontinuouslyreportedthatthecounselingprogram,despitethebestintentions,actuallyhurttheprogramparticipantsovertimewhencomparedtodoingnothingtothematall.AlthoughthefirstparticipantintheCambridge-Somervillestudywasrandomlyassignedin1937,thefirstreportofresultswasnotcompleteduntil1951.
Experimentswereusedselectivelyuntilthemid-1960s.AsOakley(1998)notes,randomizedexperimentsbecameanimportantresearchdesignduringthattimetoevaluatetheJohnsonAdministration’s“GreatSociety”programsintheU.S.Shearguesthatrandomizedexperimentssoonfelloutoffavor,notbecauseofanynewacceptanceofthemethodologicalcriticismsofexperiments,butbecausetheresultscontinuouslyreportednopositiveeffectfortheAdministration’ssocialpoliciesandprograms.
DavidFarrington,LloydOhlinandJamesQ.Wilson(1986)deservecreditforhelpingtoputrandomizedexperimentsontheradarscreenofcriminologistsinthemid-1980s.Theirinfluentialbookentitled“UnderstandingandControllingCrime,”recommendedtheuseofrandomizedexperimentswheneverpossibletotestjusticeinnovations.ThisbookhadramificationsfortheU.S.NationalInstituteofJustice,whichunderthedirectionofJamesChipsStewartsoonthereaftersupportedovertwodozensuchexperiments(Sherman1992).In2003Petrosinoandhiscolleaguesreportedthattherewerefully267distinctcriminologicalexperimentspublishedoravailableinEnglish.
Althoughrandomizedexperimentsincriminaljusticearemorecommonnowcomparedtothe1980s,theycontinuetorepresentasmallpercentageofthetotalnumberofimpactoroutcomeevaluationsconductedinareasrelevanttocrimeandjusticeeachyear.IntheMarylandReport(Shermanetal.2003),forexample,only16%ofthe657evaluationstudiesreviewedusedexperimentalmethods.Thereareanumberofpossibleexplanationsforwhyexperimentshavelaggedbehindotherresearchmethodsinthefieldofcriminology.Onereasonmaybesimplythattheoriginsofcriminologycanbetracedmostdirectlytodisciplinesinwhichexperimentalmethodsarenotcommon,likesociology.Butanumberofscholarshavearguedthatethicalorpracticalconcernsmakefieldexperimentationparticularlydifficultincrimeandjusticeresearch.Forexample,thereisconcernthattherandomallocationofcriminaljusticesanctio
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