价格形态百科矩形2Word下载.docx
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价格形态百科矩形2Word下载.docx
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Long-term(over6months)bullishreversal
FailureRate
0%
AverageRise
46%,withthemostlikelyriseabout20%
PrematureBreakouts
12%
VolumeTrend
Upward
Throwbacks
61%
Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget
93%
SurprisingFindings
Actualbreakoutisoppositethatshownbyprematurebreakouts75%oftime
Seealso
RectangleTops
Pricestrenddowntotheformationthenoscillatebetweentwohorizontaltrendlinesbeforebreakingoutdownward.
Short-term(upto3months)bearishconsolidation
4%
AverageDecline
19%,withmostlikelydeclinebetween10%and15%
17%
Downward
Pullbacks
70%
65%
Actualbreakoutisoppositethatshownbyprematurebreakouts75%oftime.
Likeotherformationswithoutaclassicdefinitionofatoporbottom,Idecidedtogiverectanglesadefinitionbyseparatingthembasedonthepricetrendapproachingthechartpattern.Ifthetrendisdownward,thentheformationisabottom.Ifthetrendisup,thentheformationclassifiesasatop.Thedistinctionisperhapsarbitrary,butitdoeshelpwithsearchingforreasonstoagivenbreakoutdirection.
矩形顶和矩形底的区别在于之前的价格趋势。
上涨趋势之后的矩形称为矩形顶,下跌之后矩形称为矩形底。
Thischapterconcernsitselfwithrectanglebottoms.Bottomshavetwobreakoutdirections:
upanddown(nosurprise,right?
).TheResultsSnapshotliststhemoreimportantstatistics.Thefailurerateforrectangleswithupsidebreakoutsis0%.Donotgettooexcitedasthesamplesizeissmall(41formations).Idonotbelievethatupsidebreakoutsneverfail.Theydo,itjustdidnothappenonmyshift.Onethingisclear,though:
Theyarereliable.Theaverageriseis46%,abovetheusual40%gainforbullishformations.Themostlikelyriseat20%isaboutwhatyouwouldexpect.Withsuchalargegain,itisnosurprisethattheformationmeetsitspricetarget93%ofthetime.Iconsideranythingabove80%tobereliable.
底部形态有两个突破方向,向上和向下。
矩形底向上突破的失败率是0,不要太激动,我的样本空间太小,只有41一个样本,不过至少说明矩形底的向上突破是很可靠的。
并且向上突破的涨幅高达46%,并且价格目标达成93%,相当好!
Rectangleswithdownsidebreakoutsperformalmostaswell.Theyhavea4%failurerate.ThatisverygoodasIconsiderreliableanythingbelow20%.Theaveragelossis19%,justshyoftheusual20%forbearishformations.Pullbacksscorewell,appearing70%ofthetime.Thatscoreishighenoughonwhichtobaseatradingtactic.Afteradownsidebreakout,shortthestockthenaddtothepositiononceapullbackreturnstotheformationandbeginsmovingdownagain(alwayswaitforthedownsidemovebecausepricesmightcontinueclimbing).
向下突破也表现良好,失败率4%,平均跌幅19%符合一般水平。
70%概率回调,回调后再次下跌做空是个不错的策略(一定等再次下跌发生,不然价格可能继续涨)。
Asurprisingfindingisthataprematurebreakoutisoppositethegenuinebreakoutdirection75%ofthetime.WeexplorethisfurtherintheStatisticssection.
矩形底中,过早突破75%概率与真正突破方向相反。
Tour
Figure32.1showsanexampleofarectanglebottom.Theshort-termpricetrendisupward(for3daysanyway)leadingtotheformation,butIdiscardit.Ilookattheintermediate-termtrend,whichisdown,andviewthedeclineafewdaysbeforetheformationstartasanovershoot.Thiscommonlyhappensjustbeforepricesoscillatebetweenthesupportandresistancezones.
图32.1,尽管是三天的上涨之后进入矩形,但也不要因为这三天就归入矩形顶,要看中期趋势-下跌趋势。
ThechartpatternformsafterpriceslooparoundduringtheOctober1994toJanuary1995periodandretracesomeoftheirgains.Pricesdropquicklyfromthesupportzoneat57to52H,thentheybumpupagainstthetopoftherectangleresistancezoneat56andslinkbacktofindsupportat54.PricesbounceoffthetwozoneslikeaPing-Pongballricochetingoffplayerspaddles.Upanddown,upanddownpricesboomerangonvolumethatisrising.Soon,oneplayersneezesandtheballshootspasthim.Pricesmoveup,pausingonlyadaybeforemovinghigheronheavyvolume.Pricesquicklyclimbandenteranothercongestionzone;
thistimeitisadescendingtrianglewithanupsidebreakout.
IdentificationGuidelines
Table32.1showsafewidentificationguidelinesforrectanglebottoms.Whilereviewingtheguidelines,considerhowtheyapplytotherectangleshowninFigure32.2.Thepricetrendleadingtotherectanglebottomisdownward,whichiswhatseparatesrectanglebottomsfromtheirtopbrothers.Iusuallyusetheintermediate-termpricetrendwhenconsideringwhetherpricesaretrendingupordown.Thisissubjectiveandvariesfromformationtoformation.AsshowninFigure32.1,Iignorethefewdaysjustbeforetheformationstarts,choosingtousetheprevailinglongertrendinstead.Pricesbouncebetweentwolevels,settingupasupportzoneatthebottomandalineofresistanceatthe
top.Ifyouconnecttheminorhighswithatrendline,itshouldbehorizontalornearlyso.Asimilarlinedrawnbelowthebottomsformsaparalleltrendline.Thetwotrendlinesboundthepriceaction.Occasionally,oneofthelineswillnotbeexactlyhorizontalorwillbreakneartheend,whichisfineaslongastheslopeisnottoosteeptodisturbtheoverallpicture.
使用中期趋势辨别矩形顶底。
两条趋势线要至少近似水平
Atleasttwotouchesofeachtrendlinearerequiredforavalidrectangle.Figure32.2showsthreealternatingtouches.Touchesneednotalternate,butyoushouldhaveatleasttwoclearlydefinedminorhighsandtwominorlowscomingclosetoortouchingthetrendlines.ExceptforthebriefpunchthroughthetopinearlyDecember,pricesstaywithinthetwoboundarylinesuntilbreakingoutdownwardonlightvolumeinmid-January.
每条趋势线至少需要两个触点。
图32.2中各3个触点。
上下触点交替出现,至少需要高点低点各清晰地两个。
Thevolumepatternissomewhatrandombutitdoesseemtotrackthebreakoutdirection.ForFigure32.1,thevolumepatternisupandsoisthebreakout.Figure32.2showshighvolumeatthestartoftheformationandlightvolumejustbeforethedownsidebreakout.Icautionagainsttryingtopredictthebreakoutdirectionbylookingatthevolumetrend.Althoughitdoestrackthebreakoutdirectionmoreoftenthannot,thechancesofitgoingwiththebreakoutdirectionisjustabovepickingthecorrectsideofacointoss.
成交量趋势跟随价格突破方向。
价格向上突破,成交上涨趋势;
价格向下突破,成交下跌趋势。
但是,完全根据成交走势买入不比掷硬币强多少。
FocusonFailures
Figure32.3showsarectanglebottominadowntrend.Sincemostrectanglebottomsactasconsolidationsoftheprevailingtrend,thebreakoutisexpecteddownward.Pricesdropawayfromthesupportlineat54%and2dayslaterpullbacktotheformation.Pricesmovehorizontallyforseveraldaysbeforeultimatelyclimbingabovethetopoftherectangle.Whenpricespiercethetoprectangletrendlineandcloseaboveit,Iconsiderthedowntrendtobeover.
Sincetheinitialdeclinemovesjust3%down,theformationisafailure.Formationsthatdonotmoveinthebreakoutdirectionbymorethan5%arewhatIcall5%failures.Althoughthisformationultimatelymoveslower,itdoessoonlyafterclosingabovetheformationtop.Ifyousoldthisformationshortexpectingapricedecline,youmaybestoppedoutforaloss.Certainly,yourworrywouldclimbalongwithprices.Failuresdooccur,asFigure32.3illustrates,butrectanglesarereliable.Outof95formations,justtwoarefailures.ThatobservationconvenientlybringsustotheStatisticssection.
TradingTactics
Table32.5liststradingtacticsforrectanglebottoms.Thefirsttacticistodeterminethepredictedpricetargetusingthemeasurerule.Therulefirstfindsdieheightoftheformationbysubtractingthelowestlowfromthehighesthigh.Inessence,justsubtractthevalueofthetwotrendlinesfromeachother.Figure32.6showsanexampleofthis.Thetoptrendlineisatavalueof127/i6andthebottomoneisat11.Thedifference,17/16,istheformationheight.Addtheheighttothevalueofthetoptrendlinetogettheupsidebreakouttarget(137/g)andsubtractitfromthevalueofthelowertrendlinetogetthedownsidebreakouttarget(99/i6).Someanalystssuggestmeasuringthelength(nottheheight)oftherectangle,flippingitvertically,andaddingorsubtractingitfromthetoporbottomtrendlinetogetthemaximumpricemove(forupsideanddownsidebreakouts,respectively).Thissoundsabitfar-fetched,butitisahandyguideline.UseitwithcautionasIhavenotverifiedhowwellitworks.
测量规则:
矩形高度是最小价格目标,矩形长度是最大价格目标。
Sinceyoucannotpredictthebreakoutdirectionwithcompleteaccuracy,waitforthebreakoutbeforeinvesting.Placethetradeafterpricescloseoutsidetherectangletrendlines,thentradewiththetrend.Iftheformationistallenough,considerplacinganintraformationtradenearthetwotrendlines.Shortatthetopwhenpricesbegindescendingandcoverwhentheyreboundoffthebottomtrendline(donotcovertoosoonaspricesmaycontinuemovingdown).Golongatthebottomandsellatthetoptrendlinewhenpricesbeginfalling.Again,waitforadirectionchangeaspricesmaystageanupsidebreakout.
Throwbacksandpullbacksallowinvestorsanotheropportunitytoplaceatrade,addtotheirposition,orgetoutwithasmallerloss.Takeadvantageofitbutwaitforpricestocompletetheirthrowbackorpullbackbeforeplacingatradeoraddingtoaposition.Thereasonisthatpricesmaycontinueintheadversedirectioninsteadofreturningtothetrendlineandrebounding.Sometimes,rectanglebottomsformasthecorrectivephaseofameasuredmoveformation.SeeMeasuredMoveDownforinformationonhowtotakeadvantageofthesituation.Occasionallyarectanglewillmar
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