theasiancurrencycrisisthebigthreemayhavecauseditall亚洲货币的三大可能造成这一切的Word格式文档下载.docx
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theasiancurrencycrisisthebigthreemayhavecauseditall亚洲货币的三大可能造成这一切的Word格式文档下载.docx
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TheRoleofaDominantCurrencyin
TheAsianCrisisandaCaseforCurrencyBoards
Author:
OrdeanOlson
AssistantProfessor
NovaSoutheasternUniversity
Abstract
ThispaperwillprovideadiagnosisofthefinancialcrisisinAsiafocusingontheempiricalrecordintheperiodleadinguptothecrisis,andbuildingontheexistingtheories.ThemaingoalistoemphasizetheroleofthecurrenciesoftheUnitedStates,JapanandGermanyandvolatilityoftheexchangeratesofthesecurrenciesasanessentialelementindeterminingthecauseoftheAsiancrisis.Thispaperalsoaddressesandattemptstoanswerthequestion,"
Canadevelopingcountryachieveeconomicgrowthanddevelopmentifitlinksitscurrencytoastableanchor,suchastheU.S.dollar"
.ThelastpartofthepaperwillbedevotedtoexaminingtheroleofcurrencyboardsasapossiblealternativetothesystemsutilizedbytheAsianregimes.
TableofContents
1.Introduction3
2.DomesticCreditCreationandCurrencyCrisis7
3.SpeculativeExpectations,MultipleEquilibria,andSelf-fulfillingCrises8
4.DevaluationandMonetaryStandards8
5.TheVolatilityofKeyExchangeRatesandAsianMonetaryCooperation11
6.CurrencyBoardsasanAlternative12
a.BackgroundonCurrencyBoards12
b.ACaseofCurrencyBoards15
c.TheHongKongCurrencyBoard;
ASuccessfulFixedRate
ExchangeSystem16
7.Summary18
References19
Endnotes22
Introduction
TheEastAsianfinancialcrisishascreatedrenewedinterestinthecausesandconsequencesofaneventthathitsomeofthemostrapidlygrowingeconomiesintheworld,andhaspromptedoneofthelargestfinancialbailoutsinhistory.Itrivalsthe1982debtcrisisastoitsimpactontheinternationalfinancialsystem.MuchoftherecentemphasisinresearchhasbeendirectedtowardfindingthecausewithinAsia,suchascorruptandmismanagedbankingsystems,lackoftransparencyincorporategovernance,andtheshort-comingofstate-managedcapitalism.RadeletandSachs(1998)tookthisperspectiveinadditiontoarguingthattheactionsoftheIMFexacerbatedthecrisis.EarlierworkbySalantandHenderson(1979),Krugman(1979),andFloodandGarber(1984)pointedouthowpersistentgovernmentdeficitsmayleadtocapitalflightandcurrencycrisis.Thesewerereferredtoasthefirst-generationmodels.Burnside,Eichrnbaum,andRebelo(1998)arguedthatthecrisiswascausedbylargeprospectivedeficitsassociatedwithimplicitbailoutguaranteestofailingbankingsystems.
ThecrisisinChileandArgentinainthe1980’sandtheERMin1992ledtothedevelopmentofsecond-generationmodels,whichemphasizedtheexistenceofmultipleequilibriaintheforeignmarketsandthepossibilityofhavingcrisesasself-fulfillingoutcomes.
TheAsiancrisishitcountrieswithsomeofthefastestgrowingeconomiesintheworld.Muchofthiseconomicactivitysupportedbymassiveamountsofcapitalinflowswasproductive,andthelossofeconomicactivityresultingfromthesuddenandenormousreversalofcapitalflowswasenormous.Byearly1997,marketsexpectedaslowdowninThailand,butnotintherestofAsia.Therewasnoindicationevenaslateastheendofthethirdquarterof1997thatafinancialmeltdownwasapossibility.TheAsiancrisisthatfollowedresultedinseveredepreciationofAsiancurrenciesandproblemswithmacroeconomicmanagement.Thiscouldbedescribedasapaniconthepartoftheinternationalfinancialmarkets,policymistakesbytheAsiangovernmentsatthebeginningofthecrisis,andpoorlydesignedinternationalrescueprogramsthatslowedtheeconomicrecoveryoftheAsiancountries.
ThepurposeofthispaperistoprovideadiagnosisofthefinancialcrisisinAsiafocusingontheempiricalrecordintheperiodleadinguptothecrisis,andbuildingontheexistingtheories.Themaingoalistoemphasizetheroleofthebigthree,namely,theUnitedStates,JapanandGermanyandthevolatilityoftheirexchangeratesasanessentialelementindeterminingthecauseoftheAsiancrisis.IfirmlyagreewiththestatementofMr.JosephYam,theChiefExecutiveoftheHongKongMonetaryAuthority,whosaidthat,“ItisthegreatervolatilityofG-3currenciesthatultimatelycontributedto,ifnotcaused,thevolatilityinsmallerAsiancurrencies”.Mr.JosephYamexpressedthisviewinastatementpresentedonSeptember21,1997.
Thispaperalsoaddressesthequestion"
Canadevelopingcountryachieveeconomicgrowthanddevelopmentifitlinksitscurrencytoastableanchor,suchastheU.S.dollar?
ThisquestionwillbeansweredintheCaseforCurrencyBoardssectioninthelastpartofthepaper.
OlsonandHe(1999)withtheirmodelofbalanceofpaymentcrisisexaminedthevolatilityoftheexchangeratesoftheUnitedStates,JapanandGermany(nowtheeuro)asanessentialelementindeterminingthecauseoftheAsiancrisis.ThereismuchevidencetosupportthistheorywhenappliedtotheAsiancrisis.
Table1showsthatintheyearsleadingupto1997,thecurrencieswiththegreatestadjustmentsandvolatilityweretheG-3currencies,ratherthantheAsiancurrencies.AsofSeptember1997,theyenhaddepreciatedby50percentagainsttheUSdollarfromitspeakin1995,andthedeutschemarkhadfallenbyover30percent.TheAsiancurrencieshadremainedrelativelystableagainsttheUSdollar.TheHongKongdollarhasbeenthemoststableofAsiancurrencies,movinglessthan1%againsttheUSdollar.Charts1A,1B,andFig.1Ashowthemovementsoftheyen,deutschemark,HongKongdollar,andotherAsiancurrenciesagainsttheUSdollar.
Table1
CurrencyMovementsAgainsttheDollar
1994-951995-961996-August1997
MaxMinMaxMinMaxMin8/29/97
________________________________________________________________________
Japaneseyen113.280.6116.280.6127.1103.4120.9
Deutschemark1.771.351.561.351.881.441.81
Koreanwon814765845756902774900
HKdollar7.777.727.777.727.367.727.75
Singaporedollar1.611.391.461.391.531.401.51
Indonesianrupiah2294209823642195300522802930
Malaysianringgit2.792.442.562.442.932.472.93
Philippinepeso27.823.626.324.430.526.130.1
Thaibaht25.624.525.724.534.123.234.1
Source:
Datastream,Reuters
ThecurrencyturbulenceinAsiahaspromptedthecriticismofthewisdomoffixedexchangeratesystems.ThereisacommonperceptionthattheadoptionofmoreflexibleexchangeratesregimesbyanumberofAsianeconomiesimpliedafailureoffixedexchangeratesystems.Thisisinmyviewamistakenperception.Thereisprobablynooneperfectexchangerateregime.Oneofthedilemmasofanyexchangerateregimeishowtheexchangeratecanreflecttheunderlyingeconomicconditions,whichareconstantlychanging,sothatexternalbalancecanbeachieved.Afixedexchangerateregimecanfunctionwellifthereisstrictfinancialandfiscaldiscipline,andflexibilityofdomesticgoodsandservicesmarketstoadjustforanystructuralchangesintheeconomy.Ontheotherhand,aflexibleexchangerateregimecanalsowork,providedthatthepolicypackageiscorrectandthereisawellfunctioningforeignexchangeandfinancialmarket.Butitwouldbeamistaketothinkdevaluationcansubstituteforfundamentalpolicyadjustmentstocorrectastructuralexternalimbalance.Competitivedevaluationsareusuallypoliciesthatareself-defeating.Indeed,theadoptionofmoreflexibleexchangeratessystemsbysomeAsianeconomieshasnotmeanttheycanavoidtheadjustmentsthatarecurrentlybeingundertaken.AnexampleofafixedratesystemthatissuccessfulistheHongKongcurrencysystem.Withafixedexchangerateunderaverystronganddisciplinedregimeintheformofacurrencyboardsystem,HongKonghasbeenabletofocusonproductivitywhilemaintainingstrictfinancialandfiscaldiscipline,andenforcingprudentbankingsupervision.ThishasallowedHongKongtomanageandminimizethedownsiderisksofoverheatingintheeconomy.
AsecondpurposeofthispaperistoexaminetheroleofcurrencyboardsasapossiblealternativetothesystemsutilizedbytheAsianregimes.Thestrengthandweaknessesofcurrencyboardswillbeexaminedlaterinthesection,CurrencyBoardsasanAlternative,withspecialemphasisontheHongKongcurrencyboard.
DomesticCreditCreationandCurrencyCrisis
Acurrencycrisisusuallyreferstoasituationinwhichaneconomyunderafixedexchangeregime(pegged)isunderpressuretogiveupeithertheprevailingexchangerateortheregime.Fortheformer,theeconomyincrisisinmostcasesisrequiredtodevalueitscurrencybyasubstantialamount,andtheexchangeratethenmovestoanew,butaleasttemporarilyfixed,level.Forthelater,thealternativeregimeisaflexiblerateone.
Mexico,Argentina,Brazil,andPeruallexperiencedvariousdegreesofcurrencycrisesduringthelate1970’sandmid80’s.Thesecountrieschosetopegtheircurrenciesagainstforeignones.Atsomepointstheyobservedcapitalflightandspeculativeattacksontheircurrencies,whichresultedinenormouspressureonthecentralbankstodevaluetheircurrencies.
Continuousgovernmentfiscaldeficitshadbeenattributedasamajorfactorofthesecurrencycrises.These
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