投资者对衍生金融工具运用及其收效的反应外文翻译Word文件下载.docx
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投资者对衍生金融工具运用及其收效的反应外文翻译Word文件下载.docx
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外文题目Investorreactionstoderivativeuseandoutcomes
外文出处忽略:
//0012.Springer
418/2007:
2-6
外文作者LisaKoonce;
MarlysGaschoLipe;
MaryLeaMcAnally
原文:
Investorreactionstoderivativeuseandoutcomes
Abstract
Howdoinvestorsevaluatemanagerswhochoosewhetherornottousederivativesoncetheoutcomesofthosedecisionsbecomeknown?
Differenttheoriesofferdifferentpredictions,andwetesttheseinthreeexperiments.Resultsshowthatinvestorsaremoresatisfiedwithfirmmanagersandassignahighervaluetofirmswhenmanagersusederivatives(thataddressfirmrisks)thanwhentheydonot.Thisresultoccurseventhoughweholdconstanttheeconomicdifferencestypicallypresentwhencomparingderivativeuseversusnon-use(thatis,exanteriskandexpostoutcome),suggestingthatinvestorsrewardfirmsthatusederivatives.Additionaltestsrevealthatinvestorsbelievethatmanagerswhousederivativesinthesesituationsexhibitahigherlevelofdecision-makingcarethanthosewhodonotusederivatives.Wealsodocumentthattheseinferencesaboutgreaterdecision-makingcaredonotapplytothespeculativeuseofderivatives.Overall,ourstudyaddstoourunderstandingofhowinvestorsjudgecompaniesthatusederivatives,giventheresultingoutcomesofsuchuse.
KeywordsDerivatives;
Investors;
Psychology;
Outcomes
Evidencesuggeststhatfirmmanagersareconcernedabouthowcurrentandpotentialinvestorsperceivethefirm’suseofderivatives.Forexample,asurveyofmanagersofU.S.nonfinancialfirmsfoundthat65%ofthemreportedconcernoverinvestor,regulator,andpublicperceptionsofderivativeuse(Bodnaretal.1998).Manyofthesemanagerscitedthisconcernasanimportantdeterminantintheirdecisionnottousederivatives.Priorresearchsuggeststhattheseconcernsmaybejustified.Koonceetal.(2005)reportthatinvestorsperceivederivativestoberiskierthannonderivativefinancialinstruments.AlthoughtheKoonceetal.resultssuggestthatmanagers’concernsmaybereasonableexante,itisunclearhowinvestorsthinkaboutcompanies’useofderivativesinthecommonsituationwhereoutcomesrelatedtotheiruseareknown(thatis,expost).Thissituationisthefocusofourstudy.
Outcomesfromtheuseofderivativesarereadilyavailabletoinvestorsfromseveralsources,mostnotablyfromthefinancialstatements.1Specifically,SFAS133requiresthatfirmsreportderivative-relatedoutcomesinthefinancialstatements,includingthecomprehensiveincomestatement,balancesheet,andfootnotes(Kawaller2004;
Ahmedetal.2006).Investorsalsocanobtainoutcomeinformationfrompressreleasesinwhichfirmsmayvoluntarilydiscloseresultsfromderivativeuse,typicallywithafocusonfavorableoutcomes(forexample,SouthwestAirlines2005).Finally,investorscaninferoutcomesgivengenerallyavailableinformationregardingmarketratechangesandinformationdisclosedinpriorfinancialstatementsaboutthetypeofderivativesusedbyafirm(Hodderetal.2001).
Investigatinginvestors’perceptionsofderivativeuseonceactualoutcomesareknownisimportantforseveralreasons.First,studiesprovideevidencethatderivativeusecanaddvaluetofirms.Forexample,AllayannisandWeston(2001)documenta4%increaseinfirmvalue(thatis,a‘hedgingpremia’)forlargefirmsthathedgetheirforeigncurrencyexposurebyusingderivatives.Guay(1999)showsthatmarket-basedfirmriskislowerfornewusersofderivatives.Thesestudiessuggestthattheremaybeimportantbenefitsfromderivativeusesothatiffirmsavoidusingderivativesduetoamistakenconcernoverpotentiallynegativeinvestorreactions,boththefirmsandinvestorsmaysuffereconomically.
Second,researchhasnotaddressedwhetherthenegativeexanteperceptionsofderivativeusedocumentedinpriorresearch(Koonceetal.2005)willpersistonceactualoutcomesareknown(thatis,expost).Whilepsychology’scounterfactualreasoningtheorysuggeststhatitmight,suchbehaviorisnotassured.Researchshowsthathowpeoplethinkinforesightoftendoesnotcorrespondtotheirthinkinginhindsight,givenoutcomeinformation(FischhoffandBeyth1975).Thus,inadditiontothepossibilityofanegativereactiontoderivativeuse,therearetwoother(alsotheoreticallybased)possibleinvestorreactions.Specifically,investorsmaynotcarewhetherafirmusesderivativesbutrathermayreactonlytotheoutcomeitself(MitchellandKalb1981).Alternatively,investorsmayreactpositivelytowardcompaniesthatusederivativesbecauseoftheperceiveddecision-makingcaretheiruseimpliesanddosoirrespectiveoftheparticularoutcome(RebandConnolly2007).Becausepsychologytheoriessupporteachofthesepossiblereactions,researchisneededtoprovideevidenceonhowinvestorsevaluatefirmsthatusederivativesonceactualoutcomesareknown.
Inthispaper,wereporttheresultsofthreeexperimentsdesignedtoidentifyhowinvestorsreacttoderivativeuse.Inourfirstexperiment,wediscriminateamongthethreepossibletheoriesnotedabove.Onceweestablishthemostdescriptivetheoryofinvestorreactions,wethentestitsvalidityandgeneralizabilityintwosubsequentlydesignedandexecutedexperiments.Wediscussthethreeexperimentsbelow.
Asnotedabove,thefirstexperimentdiscriminatesamongthethreepossibletheoriesforinvestorreactiontotheuseofderivativesoncederivative-useoutcomesareknown.Wevarywhetheracompanyusesaderivative(thatis,forwardcontract)tolockinthepriceofaplannedinventorypurchase,andwealsovarytheoutcome(thatis,poororgood)thatresultsfromthederivativeornonderivativeuse.Ourresultsshowthat,holdingoutcomeconstant,investorsaremoresatisfiedwhenacompanyusesderivatives.Specifically,theyrewardcompaniesforusingderivativesbyboostingtheirevaluationofmanagement;
thisresultisconsistentwithinvestorsinferringthatthemanagersexercisedhighdecision-makingcareinchoosingtousethederivativetoaddresstheriskexposure.Giventhatexperimentonepointstodecision-makingcareasatheoryofinvestorreactiontooutcomesfromderivativeuse,oursecondexperimentteststhevalidityofthistheorybydirectlyvaryinginformationregardingdecision-makingcare(thatis,whetherthecompanydisclosesextensivepoliciesandproceduresforitscorporatefinancingdecisions)aswellaswhethermanagementusesaderivativeinstrument.Resultsconfirmthedescriptivevalidityofthedecision-makingcaretheory.Withoutinformationregardingcarefuldecision-making,investorsaremoresatisfiedandassignahigherfirmvaluewhenmanagersusederivativesthataddressanexposurethanwhenmanagersdonot.Incontrast,wheninvestorsareprovidedwithinformationaboutthemanager’scarefuldecision-makingprocess(asoftenfoundinfinancialstatementfootnotesandMD&
Adisclosures),thederivativeeffectiseliminatedbecauseperceiveddecision-makingcarehasbeenheldconstant.Whileexperimentoneresultsareconsistentwiththedecision-makingcaretheory,experimenttwoconfirmsthatperceiveddecision-makingcareiscausingtheheightenedinvestorsatisfactionassociatedwithderivativeuse.
Ourthirdexperimenttestswhetherthedecision-makingcareperspectiveiscomprehensive.Inthisexperiment,participantsevaluateasituationwhereapooroutcomeresultedfromafirmusingaderivativeeitherforpurposesof‘‘takingaview’’(thatis,speculating)oncommoditypricesorforaddressingacommodity-priceriskexposure.Resultsindicatethatparticipantsperceivelower(higher)decision-makingcareinthesituationwheremanagersusederivativestotakeaview(addressanexposure).Eventhoughthederivativeuseleadstothesameeconomicoutcomeinbothcases,participantsjudgedifferentlevelsofsatisfactionwithmanagementdependingonthelevelofperceiveddecision-makingcare.Thisfindingreiteratesthatperceiveddecision-makingcareguideshowinvestorsreacttomanagers’derivativedecisionsandtotheresultingoutcomes.Insum,perceiveddecision-makingcarecomprehensivelyexplainsinvestorreactiontoderivativeuse.
Forseveralreasons,weuseexperimentstotestourhypotheses(Libbyetal.2002).First,experimentsallowustodirectlymeasurehowindividualinvestorsviewcompanies’use(ornon-use)ofderivatives.Althoughnormativemodelsdonotexisttoindicatewhetherinvestors’impressionsarecorrectinthiscontext,itisimportanttounderstandwhatinvestorsthinkbecausemanagersmaybasetheirderivativedecisionsinpartonhowtheybelieveinvestorsviewderivatives(Bodnaretal.1998).Second,throughexperimentation,weareabletoholdconstanttheeconomicdifferencestypicallypresentwhencomparingderivativeuseversusnon-use(thatis,actualeconomicexanteriskandexpostoutcome).Thiskeydesignfeaturedifferentiatesourtestsfrompriorarchivalresearchonderivativeuse.Byintent,priorarchivalresearchfocusesoncomparingfirmvalueoreconomicriskinsituationswherederivativesareusedtothosewheretheyarenotused(AllayannisandWeston2001;
Guay1999).Becausethesestudiesareinterestedinwhetherriskandearningsoutcomesdo,infact,differinthesetwosituations,controllingforbothwouldeliminatetheeffectofinterest.However,suchcontroliscentraltoourtestsasweareconcernedwithwhetherinvestorsreactincrementallytofirmsandmanagerswhouseversusdonotusederivatives,withouttheconfoundingeffectsofdifferentexanteactualriskandexpostoutcomes.
Ourstudyhasbothpracticalandtheoreticalimplications.Onapracticallevel,ourresultsprovideassurancetofirmmanagerswhowanttoincre
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