fabdu41prepared文档格式.docx
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fabdu41prepared文档格式.docx
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ithasdulyfallenby16%againstthedollarand19%againsttheeurosincetheendofSeptember(whenitwasclearthatMrAbewasheadingforpower).
Thecomplaints,however,areoverdone.RatherthancondemningtheactionsofAmericaandJapan,therestoftheworldshouldpraisethem—andtheeurozonewoulddowelltofollowtheirexample.
Turningswordsintoprintingpresses
ThewarrhetoricimpliesthatAmericaandJapanaredirectlysuppressingtheircurrenciestoboostexportsandsuppressimports.Thatwouldbeazero-sumgamewhichcoulddegenerateintoprotectionismandacollapseintrade.Butthisisnotwhattheyaredoing.Whencentralbankshaveloweredtheirshort-terminterestratetonearzeroandthusexhaustedtheirconventionalmonetarymethods,theyturntounconventionalmeanssuchasQEorconvincingpeoplethatinflationwillrise.Bothactionsshouldlowerreal(inflation-adjusted)interestrates.ThismaynowbehappeninginJapan.
Theprincipalgoalofthispolicyistostimulatedomesticspendingandinvestment.Asaby-product,lowerrealratesusuallyweakenthecurrencyaswell,andthatinturntendstodepressimports.Butifthepolicyissuccessfulinrevivingdomesticdemand,itwilleventuallyleadtohigherimports.
Aggressivemonetaryexpansioninabigeconomysufferingfromweakdemandandsubduedinflationisgoodfortherestoftheworld,notbad.TheInternationalMonetaryFundconcludedthatAmerica’sfirstroundsofmonetarylaxityboosteditstradingpartners’outputbyasmuchas0.3%.Thedollardidweaken,butthatbecameamotivationforJapan’sstepped-upassaultondeflation.ThecombinedmonetaryboostonoppositesidesofthePacifichasbeenapowerfulelixir(灵丹妙药)forglobalinvestorconfidence.
Europeanofficials,fearfulthattheircountries’exportsarecaughtinthecrossfire(suffer),haveentertainedloopy(crazy)ideassuchasdirectlymanagingthevalueoftheeuro.Instead,theeurozoneshouldstopgrumblingandstartemulatingJapan:
theEuropeanCentralBankshouldeasemonetarypolicy,ifnecessarythroughQE.Thiswouldbothblunt(makeweaker)theeuro’sriseandcombatrecessioninthezone’speriphery.
Thatoptionmaynotbeavailabletoemergingmarkets,suchasBrazil,whereinflationremainsaproblem.Intheircase,limitedcapitalcontrolsmaybeasensibleshort-termdefenceagainstdestabilisinginflowsofhotmoney.
ShouldJapan’sattackontheyenmovebeyondrhetorictoactualinterventioninthemarketstodriveitsvaluedown,thentherestoftheworldwouldberighttocondemnit.Untilthathappens,othercountriesshouldavoidgroundlessfearmongeringaboutcurrencywars.Financeministersandcentralbanksshouldbefightingstagnation,noteachother.
Goldandsterling
Theoddcouple
ALTHOUGHtheyenhascapturedmostofthecurrencyheadlinessincethestartoftheyear,sterlinghasbeenalmostasweak.ItstartedtheyearworthY141andisnowaroundY143.Againstthedollar,thepoundhasweakenedfrom$1.62to$1.53;
againsttheeuro,thedrophasbeenfrom€1.23to€1.145,a6.9%decline.Itdoesn'
tsoundmuchbutrememberthatthepoundwasonlyallowedtofall6%fromitspegtotheD-MarkundertheoldExchangeRateMechanism.
Alookattoday'
sdataisenoughtotellyouwhythepoundisfalling.InflationisabovetheBankofEngland'
s2%targetandsettoremainsoforthenexttwoyearsiftheBank'
sforecastiscorrect.Butthelatestmonetarypolicycommitteeminutesshowthatthreeoftheninememberswantedmoremonetarypolicylooseningintheformofquantitativeeasing.Fairenough,youmightsay,theBankismimickingtheFed'
s"
dualmandate(dualmandateofstablepricesandmaximumemployment)"
andtargetingemploymentaswellasinflation.Butfiguresouttodayshowunemploymentisfalling,asithasbeenslowlybutsteadily(an156,000declineoverthelast12months);
employmentisatanall-timehigh(as,admittedly,isthepopulation).
Intheminutes,theBankingeniouslypointsto(suggestthatsthistrueorlikely)highergiltyields(10-yearyieldsareup20basispointsoverthelastmonth)actedasatighteningofmonetarypolicy,andbolsteredtheargumentformoreeasing.But,ofcourse,ifinternationalinvestorsarelosingfaithinBritishpolicybecausetheythinkitistooloose,moreeasingmight
leadtomoregiltsales.
Themathsisfairlysimple.Ifyouareanoverseasinvestor,a2.2%yieldfrom10-yeargiltsdoesn'
tallowyoutotoleratemuchinthewayofcurrencylosses,certainlynot6.9%insevenweeks(theequivalentofthreeyears'
income).True,investorsmightbetemptediftheythoughtaone-offdeclinehadoccurred,andthenewcurrencyratewouldbedefended.ButJamieDannhauseratLombardStreetResearchwritesthat
Marketsshouldnowbeundernoillusions-givenconsiderablerisksandthedangerofpermanentsupply-sidedamage,theMPCwillcontinuetolookthroughabove-targetinflationinordertokeepthepoundcheapandstimulateeconomicactivity.
WhileGeoffreyKendrickofNomurawritesthat
systematicallyforecastingadisinflationthatnevermaterialiseshaslongexposedtheBanktoridicule.Weview(theBank'
s)latestforecastsasmorerealistic,butwithoutanywillingnesstorespond,itsupportstheviewofthosewhosuggesttheBankisactivelyseekingtoinflateawaydebts.Westillseethisviewasabitextreme,butcannotignorethewillingnessofpolicymakerstoessentiallysocialisemalinvestmentratherthanallowingthemtobeliquidatedbythosewhomadethem
TheBofE'
sstancecouldbeseenaspartofageneralcommitmenttoeasypolicybycentralbanks.SirMervynwillsoonbereplacedbyMarkCarney(orChopperCarney,ashehasalreadybeendubbed,atributeto"
HelicopterBen"
Bernanke),theFedhasprecommittedtolowrates,theECBwilldo"
whateverittakes"
andtheBankofJapanwillsoonchooseanew(presumablypro-inflation)governor.
Givenallthat,theoddthingisthattheotherassettomaketheheadlineshasbeengold,whichhasdroppedbelow$1600anounce.Goldcanbeviewedasacurrency,andwithmostcountrieshappytoseetheircurrenciesdecline,onemightthinkbullionwouldbenefit,notsuffer.Goldisalsoaninflationhedge;
thelatestBankofAmericaMerrillLynchsurveyshowsanet40%offundmanagersexpectinflationtorise.Sowhatishappening?
ChrisWatlingatLongviewEconomicspointsoutthatmineproductionhaspickedupinthelastthreeyearswhileinvestmentdemandforgoldhasstartedtodecline.Themetalnowseemsalittlepriceytojewellerybuyers.
Thecurrentproblemforgoldisthesamefactorthathelpedfuel12straightyearsofpricegains;
thereisnoobviouswayofvaluingit.Ithasnoyieldorearnings.Sogoldbullsmightberighttoworryaboutinflationinthelongrun.Butperhapsallthosefears(andmore)arealreadyreflectedinthegoldprice.Themetalmayalsohavebenefitedfrommomentumtraderswhojumpedontothetrend,particularlyviatheETFs;
gold'
slossofmomentumoverthelast12monthsmaybedrivingthesmartmoneyelsewhere.GeorgeSoroshascuthisholdingsrecently.Achangeintrendforgoldmayrequiresomesignsthatactualconsumerinflationisrising;
theUSdataareouttomorrowbutthepreviousmonth'
sfigures(flatonthemonth,1.7%ontheyear)shownotmuchishappening.
Thefalloftheuniversalbank
Beforethegreatcrashof2008,theuniversalbanksswaggered(walkinanextremelyproudandconfidentway)aroundLondon,HongKongandNewYork.Barclays,Citigroup,CreditSuisse,DeutscheandUBSimaginedtheycouldbeallthingstoinvestorsin(almost)allcornersoftheglobe.Fiveyearson,in2013,suchambitionswillseemquaint(attractiveinanunusualorold-fashionedway)astheAmericanandEuropeanbanksfindthemselveseithershrinkingfurtherorincreasinglymarginalised.
Farfromcompetingineverycategoryfromassetmanagementtoequityderivativesandfixedincome,theuniversalbankswillabandonbusinessesandlocations,throughforceddisposalsorseverecost-cutting.Fromtheruins,aneworderwillemerge:
onewithdifferentcapitalstructures,newcreditchannelsandacontinuedshiftinpowertowardsAsianinstitutions,someofwhichwillbeeitherpartlyorwhollygovernment-owned.
Thedeclineoftheuniversalbankwillpassunlamented.Thepromiseofthecross-sellingfinancialsupermarkethaslongbeeneclipsed(makesthseemunimportant)bythedestructionofshareholdervalueafterthecrash.SandyWeill,universalbanking’sevangelist(布道者)-in-chiefwhenatthehelmofCitigroup,recanted(公开放弃)publiclyin2012.In2013,combiningstolidutilitybankingandbonus-hungryinvestmentbankingunderoneroofwilllookevenmorequestionable.AsoneCityofLondonveteransays:
“It’slikeputtingTescotog
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