Chinas Economic Reform and the Economic Impact ofWord文档格式.docx

Chinas Economic Reform and the Economic Impact ofWord文档格式.docx

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bSchoolofServiceManagement,BournemouthUniversity,BH125BB,UK

*Correspondingauthor.E-mail:

lixsnl@nottingham.ac.uk

Abstract

Chinahasbeenexperiencinghigheconomicgrowthandunderaprocessofeconomicreformforthirtyyears.TheBeijing2008OlympicGameswillbeheldduringtheprocessofanimportantstageofthesereforms.BeijingOlympicswillgenerateeconomiceffectsthroughincreasedtourismspendingandinvestmentinOlympicvenuesandinfrastructure.ThispaperaimstoexamineamutualrelationshipbetweenChina’seconomicreformandtheeconomicimpactofinternationaltourismbroughtbytheBeijingOlympics.ThetwoissuescentraltoChina’seconomicreformwillbeexamined:

changestoindustrialstructureandtransformationofthepatternofeconomicgrowth.Tworesearchquestionsaredeveloped:

theexistenceandextentoftheeconomicimpactoftheBeijingOlympicsonChina’seconomicreformandtheroleofthesereformsinmaximisingthebenefitsoftheBeijingOlympics.

ComputableGeneralEquilibriummodellingwillbeappliedtoevaluatetheeconomicimpactoftheBeijing2008OlympicGames.ThispaperwillreportonthebuildingofaCGEmodelforBeijingtoexploretheeffectsbetweenChina’seconomicreformandtheBeijingOlympics.Thispaperwillthenconcludewithsomepolicyimplications.

Keywords:

China’seconomicreform;

theBeijingOlympicsGames;

Internationaltourismexpenditures;

CGEmodelling

1.Introduction

ItisbelievedthatChina’seconomicreformshavebeencontributingtoChina’srapideconomicgrowth.Thesereformshavebeencarriedoutindifferenteconomicfieldsatdifferenteconomiclevelsandhaveinvolveddifferenteconomicagents.2008isthe30thyearofthesereforms,whichmakesitasuitabletimetorevisititshistoryinordertoidentifyappropriatepoliciesgoingforward.TheBeijing2008OlympicGameswillbeheldduringthisimportantstageofthereformprocess.HoldingtheBeijingOlympicsislikelytobringeconomiceffectstoChina’stransitioneconomy.Therefore,thereformsandtheBeijingOlympicsbecometwoinfluentialeconomicfactorsinChinain2008anditisimportanttoexploretherelationshipbetweenthesetwofactors.Astothereforms,thispaperwillmainlyconcentrateonthechangingindustrystructureandthetransformationfromanextensivetoanintensiveeconomicgrowthpattern.RegardingtheBeijingOlympics,thispaperattachesspecialimportancetotheeconomicimpactoftheadditionalinternationaltourismreceiptsgeneratedbytheBeijingOlympics.

ThepaperwillevaluatetherelationshipbetweenreformsandtheeconomicimpactofanincreaseininternationaltourismreceiptsduetoholdingtheOlympics.Tworesearchquestionsareofparticularimportance:

Firstly,wouldtheeconomiceffectsoftheincreasedtourismreceiptssupportthechangeofindustrystructure?

Secondly,bytransferringfromanextensivetoanintensivegrowthpattern,couldtheeconomicimpactoftheBeijingOlympicsbeenhanced?

Twopropositionsaredesignedbasedonthetwoquestionsabove.

ComputableGeneralEquilibrium（CGE）modellingwillbeemployedtoexaminethetwopropositions.CGEmodellinghasbeenshowntobeabletoshedlightonrealeconomicproblemsinmanydifferentareasandhasbecomethebasisforformulatingpolicies（Markusen,2002）.Itoffersanewanglefordealingwithrealeconomieswithmoderneconomictheory（Starr,1997）andanalyzescomplexeconomicrelationshipsinamicroeconomicenvironmentbaseduponasolidmicroeconomicfoundation（Sugiyarto,2000）.

AnumberofstudieshavediscussedtheeconomicinfluenceoftheBeijingOlympicsonchangesinindustrialstructure.MoststudiespredictthattheBeijingOlympicswillgeneratepositiveeffectsontourismindustries（BMBS,2003;

LiandDuan,2005;

LiandBlake,2007）.NoliteraturehasbeenfoundthatexaminesthemutualeffectsoftheBeijingOlympicsandeconomicreform.Thispaperwillcontributetotheliteraturebyapplyinganadvancedeconomicmodel（CGEmodelling）thatexaminesthismutualrelationship.

2.China’seconomicreformandtheBeijingOlympicGames

China’seconomicreform

China’shigheconomicgrowth,whichinthepastfiveyearshasaveragedmorethan10%,hasbeenwidelyattributedtoanextensiveandongoingperiodofeconomicreform.ThemainachievementsofChina’sthirtyyearsofeconomicreformarenotonlyreflectedinahighaverageGDPgrowth,butalsoinimprovingpeoples’livingstandards.Forexample,thepercentageofpeoplein“absolutepoverty”hasbeenreducedfrom50%to10%（Lindbeck,2007:

8）.However,somechallengesarefacingChina’sfurthereconomicdevelopment.Anirrationalandunbalancedindustrystructurehascreatedabottleneckandanextensiveeconomicgrowthpatterncauseslowtotalproductionproductivity（Lindbeck,2007:

10）.

ThateconomicgrowthismainlydrivenbythegrowthofthesecondaryindustrycanbeseeninFigure1.Thesecondarymanufacturingsectorcontributed55%oftotalGDPgrowth,withthetertiarysectorcontributing39%,andprimaryactivitiesonly6%.AdjustingandupgradingChina’sindustrialstructureisincludedinthe11thFive-YearPlan（2006-2010）forChina’seconomicdevelopmentbytheChinaStateCouncil.OneoftheobjectivescontainedinthatplanistoincreasetheproportionoftheGDPcontributedbytertiaryindustries.Theadjustmentofindustrialstructurerequireseffortstobemadetodevelopamodernserviceindustryandchangefromgrowthdominatedbythesecondaryproductiontomorebalancedandcoordinateddevelopment.

Figure1:

CompositionofEconomicGrowthin2005

Source:

The2006ChinaStatisticalYearBook

Thegoaloftransformingthepatternofeconomicgrowthfromanextensivesecondaryproductiontoamoreintensivepatternwasfirstset10yearsagointhe9thFive-YearPlan,butthefeaturesofanextensivepatterncanstillbeobservedintheChina’seconomy（Lindbeck,2007:

10）.Extensivegrowthdependsonexploitingrawmaterialsandnaturalresources,whichwilleventuallycauseashortageinresources,environmentalpollutionandlackofcompetitivecapability.Anintensivegrowthpatterndependsonimprovingfactorproductivityandwidelyemployingtechnologiesindifferentindustries.ThetransformationfromextensivetointensiveeconomicgrowthpatternscanberepresentedbyanincreaseinTotalFactorProductivity（TFP）throughtechnologygrowthandefficiency.TFPisdefinedas“therateoftransformationoftotalinputintototaloutput”（DiewertandNakamura,2002:

5）.

TheBeijingOlympicGames

TheOlympicswillbringeconomic,social,cultural,environmentalandpoliticalchangetoChina.Economically,theOlympicscouldcontributetoeconomicgrowth,urbangeneration,newjobcreationandimprovinghouseholds’welfare（Sakai,2006）.TheOlympicsmaygeneratemajoreconomiceffectsthroughtourismspending,operatingexpenditures,investmentinOlympicvenuesandinfrastructure（Madden,2006）.TheeconomicimpactofinternationaltourismisoneofthemostsignificantcomponentsinevaluatingtheeconomicimpactoftheOlympicGames（Blake,2005）.Itwasestimatedthatanadditional$1317millionoftourismreceiptswouldbegeneratedbyholdingtheSydneyOlympicsin2000（NSWTreasury,1997）,andthattheLondonOlympicswillbringadditionalreceiptsof$727millionin2012alone（Blake,2005）.Withreceiptsprojectedtoincreaseby$900millionduringtheBeijingOlympicsin2008,thisspendingprovidesanimportantstimulustoChina’seconomicdevelopment（LiandBlake,2007）.TheadditionalreceiptsbroughtbytheBeijingOlympicswillflowintotheeconomy,whichmightgeneratebothpositiveandnegativeeconomicimpacts.

Twopropositions

ApossiblemutualrelationshipcouldbeidentifiedbetweeneconomicreformandtheeconomicimpactoftourismreceiptsgeneratedbytheBeijingOlympics（Figure2）.Twopropositionsaredesignedtotestthismutualrelationship.

Proposition1:

theeconomicimpactoftourismreceiptsgeneratedbyholdingtheBeijingOlympicswouldhelpintheadjustmentofChina’sindustrialstructure.

Proposition2:

ThetransformationfromextensivetointensiveeconomicgrowthpatternswouldenhancetheeconomicimpactoftheBeijingOlympics.

Figure2:

AmutualrelationshipbetweeneconomicreformandtheeconomicimpactoftourismreceiptsgeneratedbytheBeijingOlympics.

TheBeijing2008OlympicsGamesEconomicreform

3.Methodology:

AChinaCGEModel

CGEmodelling

CGEmodellingwillbeappliedinthisresearch.CGEmodellingisanapproachtoeconomicanalysisthatcombinesageneralequilibriumsetting（allmarketsclearingsimultaneously）withnumericalsimulation.CGEmodellinghasbeendescribedasoneofthemostimportantdevelopmentsinappliedeconomics（Greenawayetal.,1993）,andhasbeenwidelyusedinavarietyoffields,suchastheeconomicimpactoftaxationpoliciesandreforms,tradeliberalization,economicpolicyandinternationalenergypolicy.Itisalsoemployedintourismimpactstudiescoveringaseriesoftourismissuessuchasadecreaseorincreaseintourismdemand,shocksandtourismcrises,tourismtaxationandspecialevents.Madden（2002）andBlake（2005）evaluatedtheeconomicimpactoftheSydneyandLondonOlympicsrespectivelybyusingCGEmodelling.TheresearchonCGEmodellinginChinastartedintheearly1990sandismainlyusedintaxpolicyanalysis.ItisgaininginimportanceinChineseeconomicstudiesasimprovementsaremade