FX Market OverviewWord格式文档下载.docx
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FX Market OverviewWord格式文档下载.docx
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Wewilldiscussfactsabouttheforexmarketandfactorswhichhavedriventhismarket.Whatarethetransactionsthataretakingplaceinthismarketandhowkeyeconomicdatareleasedperiodicallybythecentralbanksinfluenceitsexchangerate.
Thedifferencesbetweenforexmarketandtheequityorfuturesmarketareaddressed.Andabriefhistoryontheforexmarket:
5ImportantCurrencyEventsthatChangetheWorldwillbediscussed.
Thisinformationiswrittenintheaimofeducatingpeopleonthefactsaboutforexandthekeydrivingfactorswhichmakeitoneofthefastestgrowingmarketofourtime.“Cashisking!
”–Thisphrasewillholdtrueforalongtime.
FXMarketOverview
Foreignexchangeisthelargestfinancialmarketintheworld.Itisestimatedthat$3.2trillionglobalaveragedailyvolumeistradedacrosstheworldeveryday.
DecentralisedMarket
Unlikeequityorfuturesmarket,forexmarketdoesnothaveacentralisedexchange.Tradingtheforexmarketdoesnotinvolveanexchangeandisusuallytradedinover-the-countermarketwherebuyersandsellersconductcurrencytransactions.
Around-the-Clock24HrMarket
Forexmarketisopened24houraday(about6daysaweek)wherepeoplefromdifferenttimezonescanparticipate.
InstantLiquidity
Tradingtheforexmarketismostliquidthroughouttheday.Inotherwords,youcanbuyandsellcurrenciesalmostinstantlywheneveryouwantto.Thisliquidityprovidesinvestorsandtradersminimalriskbecausetheycanexittheirinvestmentsasandwhentheywanttowithoutthepossibilityofnotfindingapotentialbuyerorsellerfortheirtransactions.
TransactionsOccurringintheForexMarket
CommercialTransactions
BuildingdeveloperspurchaserawmaterialsuchasmineraloresfromAustraliaandtradingcompanieswillimportproductsfromabroadandexportouttoothercountries.
Bothofthesetransactionsrequirethatthecompanyfirstselltheircurrencyinexchangefortheforeigncurrencytopurchasetheirproducts.Subsequently,exportinggoodsoutwillmeanthatcompaniesacceptforeigncurrencyinexchangefortheirgoods.Thereafter,convertingprofitsbacktohomecurrency.
Thesecompaniesactasbothbuyersandsellersforforeigncurrencies.
Hedging
Companieswithopencurrencyexposureswillfrequentlybuyorselltheirlocalcurrencyagainstforeigncurrencytoprotectfromalossinvalueduetopossiblecurrencyfluctuations.
PortfolioInvestments
Fundmanagersandhedgefundmanagerswillmakeforeign-basedinvestmentstoparticipateinthegrowthofdevelopingcountries.Investmentsinforeigninvestmentsrequiremoneytobepaidintheirhomecurrency.Hence,beforeinvestmentcanbemade,moneymustfirstbeconvertedtotheircurrency.
Personal
Tourists,immigrantsandemigrantsmakingmoneyremittancearethemaintransactionsinthiscategory.
Funding
Bigbanksandgovernmentcentralbankswilloftenborrowlargequantityofmoneyfromabroadbyarrangingthesaleofsecurities(governmenttreasurybondsorcommercialloans).Moneyreceivedinforeigncurrencieswillbeconvertedintheforexmarket.
MajorParticipants
GovernmentandCentralBanks
CentralbanksmayregulatetheircountrycurrencyagainstUSdollarsbybuyingorsellingUSdollarstokeeptheircurrencywithinacertainband.Thisisalsocalleddirtyfloat.
WehavewitnessedmanytimesthattheBankofJapanintervenedintheforexmarketbysellingYenagainstUSdollartopreventYenfromappreciatingtoomuchagainstUSdollars.ThisisbecauseJapanisanexportingcountriesandpricesoftheirproductwillbecometooexpensiveforitstradingpartnersifYenappreciatetoomuchagainstUSdollar.
CommercialBanks
Theyactasprimarymarketdealersandprovideliquiditytootherparticipantsintheforexmarket.ExamplesofthesebanksareCitibank,UBSandJ.PMorgan.
Hedgers
Theseareusuallymultinationalcompaniesthatholdlargequantityofmoneyindifferentcurrencies.Theywilltakeanoppositepositionsinanticipationofcurrencymovementssoastominimisealoseinvalue.
Speculators
Therearetwogroupsofspeculators.Hedgefundsarethelargespeculatorslookingtoprofitfromchangesinmajorcurrencymovements.Thesmallergroupofspeculatoristheretailinvestors.Retailspeculatorshavesurgedoverthepast5yearsduetotheabilitytotradeelectronicallyandfromhome.
Thederegulationoftheforexmarketallowsretailinvestorstoparticipateandprofitfromtheforexmarket.Lowbrokeragefees,lowmarginrequirementsandhighlyleveragedarereasonswhymorepeopledecidedtoparticipateinforextradingforinvestmentpurposes.
KeyFactorsImpactingCurrencies
Beforewediscussthetheories,Iwillhighlightthatthesetheorieswillaffectcurrencymarkettoacertainextent,howeverthesetheorieshavelimitations.Theoriesarecalledtheoriesbecausetheymadecertainkeyassumptionswhichmaynotnecessarybethecaseinreality.
Tradingforexmarketbasedsolelyonthesetheoriesisnotrecommended.Andthesestrategiesarefundamentalsthatinfluencethelongtermdirectionsofcurrency.Theperiodforthesefactorstoinfluencecurrencydirectionsmaybe5to20years.
Itisimportantthatinvestorsunderstandthesefundamentalsthatdrivesthecurrenciesinthelongruneventhoughitmaynotnecessaryreflecttoday’sconditions.
WhatisBalanceofPaymentsTheory
BalanceofPaymentsconsistsof2accounts:
thecurrentaccountandthecapitalaccount;
Currentaccountmeasurestradeintangiblesuchasmanufacturedgoods.Surplusordeficitbetweenexportsandimportsiscalledthetradebalance.Asurplustradebalanceconsistsofexportingmorethanisimported.Atradedeficitmeansimportingmorethanits’exports.
Capitalaccountmeasuresflowsofmoneysuchasinvestmentsforstocksorbonds.
Note:
Capitalaccountisdescribedbutthismodelonlyconsidermoneyinflowandoutflowfromcurrentaccount.
BalanceofPaymentsTheory
Countriesthatimportmorethanexportshavemoremoneyoutflowthaninflow,theyaresaidtohaveatradedeficit.Whilecountriesthathavemoreexportsthanimportswillexperiencemoremoneyinflowthanoutflow,theyaresaidtohaveatradesurplus.
BalanceofPaymentstheorystatesthatcountrieswithtradedeficitswillexperiencecurrencydepreciationbecausemoreofthenation’scurrenciesaresoldinthemarkettoimportgoodsfromabroad.Thesellingpressurecausesthenation’scurrencytodepreciateagainsttheothercurrencies.
Similarly,countrieswithtradesurpluswillexperienceanappreciationofnation’scurrency.Thisisbecausemoregoodsaresoldabroad,andforeigncountrieshavetobuynation’scurrencyinordertopurchasegoods.Thebuyingpressurewillappreciatenation’scurrencyagainsttheotherforeigncurrencies.
Ingeneral,countriesmightexperiencepositiveornegativetrade.Itisimportantthatcountriesachieveabalancesuchthatthisdeficittrademaynotgoonforasubstantialperiodoftimesuchthatitisdetrimentaltothenation’seconomy.Policyshouldbecarriedouttoreverttradedeficitbacktosurplusinthenextcalendaryear.
Limitations
Thebalanceofpaymentmodelfocusesontradedgoodsandserviceswhileignoringinternationalcapitalflows.Itisuntil1990sthatcapitalflowsplaysasignificantpartininfluencingthecountry’sexchangerate.
Hence,acountrymayhaveatradedeficitbutbecauseofitlargecapitalinflow,inturnbalancesthetotalmoneyflow.Thismodelhasfailedtotakeintoaccountthecapitalmoneyflowwhichhassincebecomesignificantinthecurrentyears.
MonetaryModel
Thismodelholdsthatexchangeratesaredeterminedbynation’smonetarypolicy.
Atightmonetarypolicywillmeanthatthenation’scentralbanksellits’equityinvestmentsandbondsintheopenmarkettothepublic.Hence,theseactionswilldecreasethemoneysupplywhichwillleadtoanappreciationofnation’scurrency.
Whileaneasingofmonetarypolicybycentralbankwillmeanthatthecentralbankbuyequityandbondsbackfromthepublicintheopenmarket.Asaresult,thiswillincreasethenation’smoneysupply,leadingtodepreciationofitscurrency.
Severalfactorsthatinfluenceexchangerates:
1.Nation’smoneysupply
2.Estimatedfuturelevelsofanation’smoneysupply
3.Thegrowthrateofanation’smoneysupply
Limitations
Thismodelismoreeffectiveinpreventinganation’scurrencyfromsharplydevaluationthanpushingforcurrencyappreciation.Veryfeweconomistssolelystandbythismodelbecauseitdoesnottakeintoaccounttradeflowsandcapitalflows.
RealInterestRateDifferentialTheory
Theinterestratetheorystatescountriesthathavehighinterestrateswillseetheircurrenciesappreciateinvalue;
whilecountrieswithlowinterestratesshouldseetheircurrenciesdepreciateinvalue.
BasicsoftheModel
Whenanation’sinterestratesareraised,internationalinvestorswilldiscoverthattheyieldofthatnations’currencyismoreattractiveandhencewillshifttheirmoneythere.Thisprocesswillmeanthatinvestorswillhavetobuythenation’scurrencyinordertoshifttheirmoneyovertheretotakeadvantageofitshighyields.Thiswillcausethenation’scurrencytoappreciateinvalue.
Wheninterestratesarelowered,internationalinvestorswillfindabetterplacetoputtheirmoneysothattheycanreceivebetteryields.Thiswillcauseinvestorstosellthenation’scurrencysothattheycanmoveitabr
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