大学生论文旅游发展外文文献Word文档下载推荐.docx

大学生论文旅游发展外文文献Word文档下载推荐.docx

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UgoGasparino,ElenaBellini,BarbaraDelCorpoandWilliamMalizia

Abstract

Tourismisincreasinglyseenasapotentiallevertowardshigheconomicgrowth,measuredbothintermsofincomeandemployment.Inrecentyears,interestintourismhasspreadrapidlythroughoutmanysmallandmediumEuropeancities,whichpreviouslyhavenotconsideredthemselvesastouristdestinations.Thispaperreviewsandsummarizestheexistingliteratureontheeconomicassessmentoftourismwiththeobjectivesof,firstly,identifyingthemaincategoriesofimpactsand,secondly,constructinganinventoryofmethodologiesavailabletoassessthem.Wewillprogressstepbystep,startingfromthemostsimplisticapproachesandrelaxingassumptionsasweproceed.Firstly,weassumeastaticsetting,withsparecapacity.Insuchasetting（partialequilibrium）,pricesdonotrespondtodemandshocks:

onlyquantities（production,incomeandjobs）adjust.Secondly,werelaxthisassumptionandassumethatthereisnosparecapacity:

pricesrespondtoincreasingdemand（generalequilibrium）,leadingtoreallocationofresourcesacrosssectors.Wethenmovefromastatictoadynamicsettingandsurveythosecontributionsthatlookattherelationshipbetweentourismspecialisationandlong-rungrowth.

Keywords:

Tourism,EconomicImpacts,Input-OutputAnalysis,GeneralandPartial

EquilibriumAnalysis

1Thepartialequilibriumanalysis

Partialequilibriumanalysisassumesthatthereissparecapacityunemployedresourcesandthat,asaconsequence,pricesdonotrespondtoincreasingdemand（perfectelasticsupply）.Adjustmenttakesplaceonlythroughquantities（production,jobs,andthereforeincome）.

Thebasicconceptofpartialequilibriumanalysisisthatof‘multiplier’although,asnoticedbyArcher,«

thereisperhapsmoremisunderstandingaboutmultiplieranalysisthanalmostanyotheraspectoftourismresearch»

（Archer,1982）.Multipliersmeasurethepresenteconomicperformanceofthetourismindustryandtheeffectsofshort-runeconomicadjustmentstoachangeintheleveloftouristexpenditure.

Thedefinitionofmultiplier,intermsofKeynes,isunequivocal:

themultipliermeasurestheincreaseineconomicactivitygeneratedinaneconomybyaunitincreaseintourismexpenditure.Atourismincomemultiplierisacoefficientthatexpressestheamountofincomegeneratedinanareabyanadditionalunitoftouristspending:

forinstance,iftouristsspendanextraEUR1millionintheareaandthisgeneratesEUR800,000ofincome,theKeynesianmultiplieris0.81.However,alternativedefinitionsofmultiplierscanbefoundintourismliterature.Themostpopularoftheseistheuseof‘ratio’multiplier,whereforexampletheincomemultipliertendstobeexpressedastheratioofa‘total’incomegeneratedbytourismexpenditure（seeSection1.1）tothe‘direct’income.Dependingonwhatismeantby‘total’income,threetypesof‘ratio’multiplierscanbegenerated.

Despitethestrongassumptionsimplicitintheircalculation,multipliersarewidelyusedinpolicy-making.Theyareusedtostudytheimpactoftourismonbusinessturnover,incomeandemploymentandcanbeusedtocomparetheimpactofincreaseddemandonothersectorsoftheeconomyordifferentpolicyoptions.

Inwhatfollows,wefirstlyintroducetheeconomicmeaningofmultipliers,analysinghowthetouristexpenditureripplesthroughtheeconomy.Secondly,wepresenttwowidelyusedmethodologiestocalculatemultipliers.Finally,webrieflydiscussandcomparesomeoftheempiricalresults.

2Theeconomicmeaningofmultipliers

Inthedestinationtouristsspendtheirmoneytobuycertaingoodsandservices.Thisinitialtouristexpenditureisgenerallydirectedtoveryspecificsectorsoftheeconomy（lodging,restaurant,amusement,retailtrade,transportation–whichwewillrefertoas

Althoughthecorrectmethodologywouldrequirethecalculationofthemultiplieratthemargin,itiscommonpractice（mainlybecauseofdatalimitation）tocalculateincomeeffectsintermsofaverage,ratherthanmarginal,tourismexpenditureandtoassumethatthereisnosignificantdifferencebetweenthem.Thisimpliesthattheeconomyhasavailablecapacitytomeetfuturedemand

Tourismindustriesandrepresentsadditionalrevenuesfortheseactivities.Thesearetheso-calleddirecteffects.

Partofthoserevenuesisusedtobuyintermediategoodsandservicesthatwillbeusedin‘futureproductioncycles’（intermediatedemand）.Aremainingpartwillbeusedtobuytheservicesofproductionfactors:

labour,capitalandland（wages,interestsandprofits,andrents–grossvalueadded）,topaytaxestocentralandlocalgovernments,orsaved.Inallcases,somemoneycouldgooutsidethearea,tointermediateproducersandproductionfactorslocatedoutsidethearea（i.e.,it‘leaks’outofthelocaleconomy）.

However,somewillremainwithinthearea:

localtourismindustrieswillhirenewlocalworkers（payingabiggernumberofwages）anddemandadditionalgoodsfromlocalproducers.Asaresult,localoutputincreases,employmentopportunitiesincreaseandlocalincomerises（duetotheincreaseinthenumberofwages）.Thesearetheso-calledindirecteffects.

Theincreaseinemploymentbringstoanincreaseinthetotalincomeoflocalresidents.

Partofthisincomeissavedandpartisspentinconsumptiongoods.Thisinturngeneratesadditionaldemandwhich,asbefore,translatesintoadditionalproductionandemployment（andsoon）.Thesearetheso-calledinducedeffects.Indirectandinducedeffectsareoftencalledsecondaryeffects.Theeffectoftourismonthelocaleconomyisinfluencedbyafewkeyfactors:

Thecharacteristicsandthespendingpatternsofthelocaltourists,affectingthedirectimpactontheeconomy.Essentialfeatureshereinclude:

Thereasonfortravel（touriststravellingforculturalreasonsspendmore/lessandputmore/lesspressureonnaturalandculturalresourcesthansun&

beachtourists）;

Thelengthofstay（touristsstayingforthedayarelikelytospendasmallershareoftotalexpenditureinlocallyproducedgoods）;

Theaccommodationchosen（hotelsaremoreexpensivethancampsites）.

Thecharacteristicsofthetourismindustriesandofthelocaleconomy.Keyfeatureshereincludetheabilityoflocaleconomytosatisfythedemandoftourismindustries,aswellasthesizeandthesharesoftourismindustriesthatarelocallyowned.Theextentoftheindirecteffectsdependsonthesizeoftheareaunderstudy（e.g.,municipal,regional,national）andontheextenttowhichbusinessfirmsintheareasupplyeachotherwithgoodsandservices（themorelikelythemorediversifiedandinterlinkedisthelocaleconomy）.Ingeneral,thesmallerthescaleoftheeconomyandthehighertheshareofinitialexpenditurethatleaksoutofthelocalarea,thefeweraretheselinkagesandthesmalleraretheindirecteffects.Moreover,themagnitudeofindirectandinducedeffectsdependsontheshareofcapital,landandlabourthatislocallyowned.Forinstance,smallfamily-ownedhotelsandrestaurantsaremorelikelytobuylocalintermediateinputsthanchainhotelsandtouristvillages.Iffactorsarelocallyowned,theirremunerations–profits,rentandwages–willstaylocallyandlocalcommunitywillstronglybenefitfromthem.

3.Direct,indirectandinducedbenefitsandeffectsontheeconomytriggeredbytourist

SpendingSeveraltypesofmultiplierarecommonlyused:

Sales（ortransactions）multiplierreferstotheeffectonbusinessturnover（valueofbusinessturnovercreatedbyaunitaryincreaseintourismexpenditure）;

Outputmultiplierreferstotheeffectonthelevelofoutputoftheeconomy.Withrespecttothesalesmultiplieritdoesnotonlytakeintoaccounttheimpactonturnoveroflocalbusinesses,butalsoanychangesinthelevelofstockstheyhold.Thiscanbeusefulinidentifyingpotentialsupplyshortfalls,orbottlenecks;

Governmentrevenuemultiplierreferstotheeffectsongovernmentalrevenuesfromallsources（e.g.,directandindirecttaxation,duties,licensesandfees）;

Incomemultiplierreferstotheeffectonincomes（salesnetofintermediateconsumption,includingwages,salariesandprofit）.Thisiscommonlyregardedasthemostimportantindicatoroftheeconomicperformanceoftourismindustry.Incomemultipliersvarydependingonwhethertheyincludeornotincomesaccruingtononnationalsresidingintheregionunderinvestigation,andwhethertheyincludeornotincomeaccruingtogovernments.Themultipliercanbemeasuredasdisposableincome–theincomeavailabletoindividualstospendorsave,whichisnetoftax–orvalueaddedincome–theincomewhichincludestaxandotherexpenditureswhicharedefinedaccordingtonationalincomeaccountingrules;

Employmentmultiplierreferstotheeffectonemployment.Itisusuallyderivedfromtheoutputorincomemultipliers.Itcanbeexpressedastheratioofthenumberof‘total’additionaljobs（e.g.,directandindirectordirectandsecondary）toeitherthenumberofdirectjobs（‘ratio’multiplier）ortotheinitialtouristexpenditure（Keynesianmultiplier）.Employmentcanbemeasuredintermsoffulltimeequivalentjobs,ortheactualnumberofjobsincludingpart-timejobs.

SupposeadditionaltouristexpenditureofEUR1milliongeneratingEUR2.5millionofextraoutputandEUR500000ofdirectandsecondaryincome.Italsocreates200jobsdirectlyand180secondarily.InKeynesiantermsthemultipliersare,respectively:

2.5（output）,0.5（income）and3.8jobsfor10000EURoftouristexpenditure（employment）.

Onthe