耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture08TranscriptWord文档下载推荐.docx
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耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture08TranscriptWord文档下载推荐.docx
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hisundergraduatewasfromUniversityofWisconsinbuthe'
sbeenatYaleaverylongtime.HecametoYalefromWallStreetin1985andatthattimetheYaleendowmentwasworthaboutonebilliondollars.Itisnow,underhisleadership,$22.5billionandthatexplainsalotofthequalityofyourlifebecausethatmeanswehaveabout$2milliondollarsperstudent.Theintereston$2milliondollarsis--whatisthat?
Ican'
tevendodivision--$100,000ayear.Sothat'
swhyYaleismuchmoregenerouswithfinancialaidthanotheruniversitiesandwhywehavebeautiful--ofcourse,thisroomwasbuilt,Ibelieve,inthe30s.Don'
tthankDavidSwensenforthisroombutforalotofotherthings.
SoYalehada28%returnonitsportfoliolastyear,whichwasnumberoneofallcollegeendowments.Moreover,it'
shada17.8%averagereturnforthelasttenyears,whichisnumberoneamonguniversityendowments.WebeatHarvard,webeatPrinceton,butactuallyPrincetonwas--theheadofthePrincetonendowmentisaproté
gé
ofDavidSwensenandI'
msurethesepeoplegettogetherandtalk.Allofthemajoruniversities--HarvardhasbeendoingverywelltooandsohaveDuke,MIT,Amherst,alotof--itseemsthatuniversitiesmanagetoinvestverywell,atleasttheyhaveinrecentdecades.Ithinkthathas--mytheory--thathassomethingtodowiththeintellectualatmosphereatuniversities.Thatis,investingwellrequirescarefulstudyandtheintellectualtraditionwehaveatuniversitieshelpspromotethat.Idon'
tknowifDavidSwensencancontinuetodothis.Ithinkwe'
re--he'
shadaspectacularreturn,buthe'
sgettingintoachallengingyear.Thisisayearoffinancialcrises,soI'
mwarningyouaheadthat--don'
texpecta28%returnontheYaleportfolioforthecomingyear.Youcanaskhimaboutthat.Ifhecandoitagaininthissituation,itwillbeamazing.ThatwouldbenextWednesday.
Meanwhile,Iwanttotalktodayaboutregulation.Wow,Ithinkwe'
realright--somethingneedsmoreregulationhere--allthesewires.Iwanttomotivateregulationintermsofthelastlecture.Ourpreviouslecturewasaboutbehavioralfinanceanditwasabouthumanfailings.Ithinkthatwetomotivatealotofourregulationoffinancialmarketsbythekindsoferrorsthatpeoplemake.Iwantedtolistafewerrorsthatarewell-knownandthatareexploitedbyunscrupulouspeopleinfinance.Ithinktheymotivatealotofwhat--I'
mgoingtowriteanumberofprinciplesofbehavioralfinancedownandjustmentionthembrieflyandthenreturntoregulation.Thesearethingsfromthefieldofpsychology.
Wishfulthinking.Thisreferstothefactthatpeople--thissoundslikesomethingyouprobablyalreadyknowbutithasbeendocumentedbypsychologists.Peopletendtomaketheerrorofbelievingwhattheywanttobelieve.Forexample,peopletendtobelievethattheirteamwillwin;
thishasbeendocumentedbypsychologists.Theyhaveabias.Ifyouaskthem,what'
stheprobabilitythatYalewillwintheYale-Harvardgame,don'
texpectYalestudentsorHarvardstudentstogiveanunbiasedprobability.Youtendto,inyourmind,thinkthatyou'
regoingtowin.Thisalsoappliestoelections--wejusthadaprimaryyesterday.Peopletendtoassumethatthecandidatethattheybelieveinwillwin.So,it'
swell-knownandthisissomethingthatcanbeexploitedbypeoplesellinginvestments.
Secondthing:
attentionanomalies.Theseare--humanattentiontendstobesporadic.Thatisthatyou--theerrorsthatpeoplenaturallymakeareoftenerrorsofinattention.Youlookatcertainthingsandyouoverly--youpaytoomuchattentiontosomethingsandtoolittletoothers.Thisissomethingthatpsychologistshavebeentalkingaboutforoverahundredyears.Humanattentionispartofhumanintelligence.WehavetoknowwhattopayattentiontoPeoplewhoarenotgoodinfocusingtheirattentionontherightthings--I'
mnotjusttalkingaboutattentiondeficitdisorder,I'
mtalkingaboutsomemorehigh-levelquestionofhowyouknowwhatyoushouldbepayingattentionto.Underattention,there'
sasocialbasisforattentionandthatisthatpeopletendtopayattentiontowhatotherpeoplearepayingattentionto.It'
seasytosweepthingsundertherugandgetpeopletoforgetsomething.Thekindsofthingsthatarenaturallytalkedaboutgetexcessiveattentionandthedetailstendtogetforgotten.
Threeisanchoring.Thisreferstoatendencyforpeopleinmakingquantitativejudgmentstosubconsciouslyhavetheirjudgmentsanchoredbysomearbitrarystimulus.Imentionedoverconfidencelastperiod;
wethentendtohaveoverconfidenceinouranchoredjudgments.TheclassicexperimentthatdemonstratedanchoringwasKahnemanandTversky--I'
mwritingK&
T--inawheeloffortuneexperiment,whichtheydidin1974.Whattheydidwastheygotsubjectstoparticipateinapsychologicalexperimentandtheexperimentconsistedofaskingthesubjectsquestionsthathadquantitativeanswers,whichwerealwaysnumbersfromzerotoonehundred.Thentheysaid,I'
mgoingtoaskyouaquestionbutbeforeyouanswerthequestionI'
mgoingtospinawheeloffortune.Youknowwhatawheelof--it'
slikeoneofthosethingsonquizshows.Youspinthisbigwheelanditrotatesforawhileandthenitstopsatonenumber,butobviouslyarandomnumber,becausethiswheeloffortunehadallthenumbersfromzerotoonehundred.
Oneofthequestionstheyaskedwas,whatpercentofAfricannationsbelongtotheUnitedNations?
Thatapparentlyisadifficultquestionthatmostpeopledidn'
tknowin1974.Thewaytheydidit--theysaid,we'
llaskyouthequestionandthinkaboutit,butwhileyou'
rethinkingaboutit--don'
tansweryet--we'
regoingtospinthiswheeloffortune.Soitcomesupwitharandomnumberthentheyaskedfortheanswer.Well,itturnsoutthatpeopletendedtogiveananswerclosetothenumberthatcameuponthewheeloffortune.Now,theyperfectlywellknewthatthewheeloffortunewasrandom.So,theexperimenters,aftertheygotthenumber,they'
dsay,heyyournumberisalmostthesameasthenumberthatjustcameup.Peoplewould--andtheywouldsay,didyoujustgivemethenumberthatcameup?
Andpeoplewoulddenyit.Theywouldsay,ohnoIwasn'
tinfluencedbythatnumber.
Thepointofanchoringisthatyouaresubconsciouslyinfluencedbynumbersanditaffectsyourjudgment;
youthinkyouknow.Forexample,inlookingatastock,ifyouaskpeopletopredictastockmarketpricetheythinkofsomenumberthattheysawbeforeandtheyareoverlyinfluencedbythatnumber.Forexample,inthelate1990s,ifyouweretoaskaquestion--I'
mhypothesizing--howlikelyisitthattheDowwillbeover10,000bytheyear2008?
Peoplemightgivethatalowprobabilitybecauseithadneverbeenover10,000,sotheyjusthadnopsychologicalanchoringonthatnumber.Onceitpasses2000,thenitseemscompletelynatural;
that'
sanchoring.
Relatedtothisistherepresentativenessheuristic.Itseemstomethatifyoutypethisyou'
llgetaspellcheckerror.Andthat'
sKahnemanandTverskyagainandit'
srelatedtoanchoringinsomesense.Whatitmeansisthat--itreferstoahumantendencytojudgeeventsonthebasisofsimilaritytoothereventsthatareprominentinourmindwithoutregardtotheactualprobabilityoftheevent.I'
llgiveyou--inoneofKahnemanandTversky'
sexamples,peoplewereaskedtojudgetheoccupationofayoungwoman.Theyhadadescriptionoftheyoungwomanandthewomanwasdescribedassensitive,artistic,etc.Theoccupationchoicesthattheywereallowedwere:
bankteller,sculptress,orsomethingelse.Manypeoplechosesculptressbecausetheythought,wellifshe'
sasensitive,artisticwomanmaybeshe'
sasculptress.Butthatisaterriblemistakebecauseweshouldknowthatsculptressesareveryrare;
veryfewpeoplehavethejobofasculptressorsculptor,soit'
samistake.Whatitmeansisthatpeoplewill--whatitmeansis--[Ihavetostuffthiswireinmypocket]--thatwesometimesexaggerateinourimaginationsomerareeventanditcolorsoutthinking.Forexample,thestockmarketcrashof1929isrepeatedlyre-expectedeventhoughitonlyhappenedonce;
it'
sjustprominentinourthinking.Peoplearelookingatstockpricestoseepatternsthattheyrememberthatareprominentintheirthinkingandthenthosepatternsaregivenanexaggeratedprobability.
Whenwelookedattherandomwalkseries--Ithinktherepresentativenessheuristicplayedaroleinthereaswell.Whenyoulookatarandomwalkyouhavetheintuitiveimpressionthatyoucanextrapolateit--thatitdoesn'
tlooklike--youcan'
tbelieveit'
sreallyrandom,butthereasonyoucanisbecauseyouoverweightheprobabilityofcertainthingsthatcaughtyourattention.Therearesomemore.
Fiveisgamblingbehavior.Anthropologistshavefoundthatgamblingispresentinallhumancultures.Notthateveryonegamblesbuttherewillbe--yougotoanyhumansocietyandaskaboutitandtherewillbesomegameofchancethattheyplayatthe--thatinfluencestheirthinking.Theproblemwith--there'
saproblemwithgamblingbehaviorbecauseinacertainfractionofthepopulationwehavepathologicalgambling.Onestudyestimatedthat1.1%ofmenand.5%ofwomen,forsomereasonmorecommonamongmenth
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