Guest Lecture by David SwensenWord格式文档下载.docx
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Guest Lecture by David SwensenWord格式文档下载.docx
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Well,Ithinkifwetookthegroupheretodayanddividedyouupintosmallergroupsoffour,orfive,orsixandaskedyoutotalkaboutwhat'
sreallyimportantinmanagingaportfoliothathasaverylongtimehorizon,Ithinkthatalmostallthegroupswouldcometoverysimilarconclusions.Ifyou'
reinvestingwithalongtimehorizon,havinganequitybiasmakessense;
stocksgoupinthelongrun.BobShiller'
sfriend,JeremySiegel,wroteabookthathastheverysimpletitle,StocksForTheLongRun.Well,thebookisassigned;
youallknowit.
TheotherthingthatIthinkwouldcomeoutofthediscussionsisthatdiversificationisimportant.Anybodywhosereadabasicfinancetext,asamatteroffact,Ithinkanybodywhothinksaboutinvestmentsinacommonsensefashionknowsthatdiversificationisanimportantfundamentaltenetofportfoliomanagement.Asamatteroffact,HarryMarkowitzcalleddiversificationa"
freelunch."
Wespendallourtimeinintro.econ.figuringoutthereisnosuchthingasafreelunchbutMarkowitztellsusthatdiversificationisafreelunch.Foranygivenlevelofreturn,youcanreduce--Foranygivenlevelofrisk,youcanincreasethereturn;
soundsprettygood.That'
sprettysimple,right?
Twotenets,anequitybiasforportfolioswithalongtimehorizonanddiversification.
BobmentionedinhisintroductionthatIshowedupatYalein1985,afterhavingspentsixyearsonWallStreet,andIwastotallyunencumberedbyanyportfoliomanagementexperience.Ithoughtthatwasprettyneat.HereIwas,backatYale,withabilliondollarportfolio--itseemedlikealotofmoneyatthetime--noportfoliomanagementexperience.WhatdoIdo?
Well,oneofthethingsIthinkisasensiblethingtodoinlifeislookaroundatwhatothersaredoing,soIlookedatwhatcollegesanduniversitieshaddoneintermsofassetallocation.Turnsoutthat50%ofendowmentassetsinthemid-1980swereinvestedincommonstocks,40%ofendowmentassetswereinU.S.bondsandU.S.cash,and10%inasmatteringofalternatives.Well,IlookedatthatandIthought,thisdoesn'
treallymakealotofsense.Youhavehalfofyourassetsinonesingleassetclass:
U.S.commonstocks.You'
vegotanother40%ofyourassetsinU.S.bondsandcash.So90%ofyourportfolioisindomesticmarketablesecuritiesandonly10%isinvestedinthingslikerealestateorventurecapitalorprivateequity--hardlyenoughtomakeadifferenceintermsoftheportfoliosreturns.Unencumberedby,Iguess,theconventionalwisdom,westartedoutatYaleonapaththatIthinkis--fundamentallythatchangedthewaythatinstitutionsmanageportfolios.
Afewyearsago,IwroteabookcalledPioneeringPortfolioManagement.ThereasonyoucouldputanaudacioustitlelikePioneeringPortfolioManagementonthecoverofthebookwasthatwemovedawayfromthistraditionalmodelwith50%instocksand40%inbondsandcashtosomethingthatwasmuchmoreequity-orientedandmuchmorediversified.WhatI'
dliketodotodayistalktoyouabouthowitisthatwemovedfromthisoldmodeltowhatitisthattodaymanyinstitutionscalltheYalemodel.ThewaythatIwouldliketotalkaboutthisjourneythatwetookisbylookingatthetoolsthatwehaveavailabletousasinvestors--thesetoolsarethesametoolsthatwehavewhetherwe'
reoperatingasindividualinvestorsorinstitutionalinvestors--anddescribehowweemploythosetoolsatYaleandhowtheyledustotheportfoliothatwehavetoday.Thosethreetoolsareassetallocation,markettiming,andsecurityselection.
Thefirst,assetallocation,basicallydealswithwhichassetsyouhaveinyourportfolioandinwhichproportionyouholdeachofthoseassets.Thesecond,markettiming,dealswithshort-termdeviationsfromthelong-termassetallocationsthatyouestablish.Andthethird,securitiesselection,speakstohowitisyoumanageeachofyourindividualassetclasses.Areyougoingtoholdthemarketportfolio,indexyourassets,matchthemarketsresults?
Orareyougoingtomanageeachindividualassetclassactively,tryingtobeatthemarketandgeneraterisk-adjustedexcessreturns?
Let'
sstartoutwiththefirst:
assetallocation.Ithinkit'
sprettywidelyknownthatassetallocationisfarandawaythemostimportanttoolthatwehaveavailabletousasinvestors.Asamatteroffact,it'
ssowidelybelievedthatassetallocationisthemostimportanttoolthatIthinksomepeoplehavecometotheconclusionthatit'
ssomesortoflawoffinancethatassetallocationisthemostimportanttool.Itturnsoutthatit'
snotafinanciallawthatassetallocationtakescenterstage;
itreallyismoreadescriptionofhowitisthatwebehave.
Yaleactuallyhasalotmorethanthebilliondollarsthatwestartedwithin1985.IthinktheestimatesheetthatIgotyesterdaymorningsaidthatwe'
vegotabout$22.5
billiondollars;
sothat'
sbeenanicerun.IfIwentbacktomyofficeafterspeakingwithyouthismorningandtookYale'
s$22.5billiondollarsandputallofitintoGooglestock,assetallocationwouldhaveverylittletosayaboutwhatYale'
sreturnswouldbe.Asamatteroffact,securityselectionwouldabsolutelydominatetheresults.TheidiosyncraticbehaviorofGooglestockfromthetimethatwepurchaseittothetimethatwesellitwoulddefineYale'
sreturns.Alternatively,ifIwentbacktotheofficeandtookYale'
s$22.5billiondollarsanddecidedthatIwasgoingtodaytradebondfutures,securityselectionwouldn'
thaveanythingtosayaboutthereturns;
assetallocationwouldn'
thaveanythingtosayaboutthereturns.Thereturnswouldbeattributablesolelytomyabilitytomarkettimethebondfuturesmarket.
Now,I'
mnotgoingtodoeitheroneofthosethings.I'
mnotgoingtoputYale'
sentireportfolioinGooglestock,I'
mnotgoingtogobackandtakeYale'
sentireportfoliotoday-tradebondfutures;
inpart,becauseitwouldbebadformepersonally.IthinkIwouldbefiredassoonaspeoplefoundoutwhatitwasthatIwasdoingwiththeportfolioand,overwhelminglymoreimportant,itwouldbebadfortheUniversity.It'
snotarationalthingtodo.WhatwillhappenisthatYalewillcontinuetoholdarelativelywell-diversifiedportfolioasdefinedbytherangeofassetclassesinwhichitinvests.Whenyoulookateachofthoseindividualassetclasses--domesticequities,foreignequities,bonds,realassets,absolutereturnandprivateequity--eachofthoseindividualassetclassesisgoingtoberelativelywell-diversifiedintermsofexposurestoindividualpositionsorindividualsecurities.Becausethat'
strue,thenassetallocationendsupbeingtheoverwhelminglyimportantdeterminantoftheUniversity'
sresults.Becauseweholdrelativelystable,relativelywell-diversifiedportfolios,securityselectionturnsoutnottobeanimportantdeterminantofreturnsformostinvestorsandmarkettimingturnsoutnottobeanimportantdeterminantofreturns.Thelastmanstandingisassetallocationandthattendstodrivebothinstitutionalreturnsandindividualreturns.
RogerIbbotson,whoisacolleagueofBobShiller'
sandmineattheSchoolofManagement,hasdoneafairamountofwork,studyingtherelativeimportanceofthesesourcesofreturns.He'
scometotheconclusionthatover90%ofthevariabilityofreturnsininstitutionalportfoliosisattributabletoassetallocationandthat'
sthenumberthatIthinkmostpeoplehearcitedwhentheyarelookingatRogerIbbotson'
swork.Ithinkoneofthemoreinterestingandevensimplerconceptsthatcomesoutofhisstudyisthatmorethan100%ofreturnsaredefinedbyassetallocation.Now,howcanthatbetrue?
Howcanassetallocationberesponsibleformorethan100%ofinvestmentreturns?
Well,itcanonlybetrueifsecurityselectionandmarkettimingdetractfrominstitutionalreturnsorindividualreturnsintheaggregate.Ofcourse,ifthinkaboutit,asacommunity,theinvestmentcommunityisgoingtolosefromsecurityselectiondecisions.
Ifsecurityselectionisazero-sumgame,theamountbywhichthewinnerwinsequalstheamountbywhichtheloserloses--winnersandlosersbeingdefinedbyperformanceafterasecurityselectionthathasbeenmade--well,thatsoundslikeazero-sumgame.Butthen,ifyoutakeintoaccountthatyoucreatemarketimpactwhenyoutrade,thatyoupaycommissionswhenyoutradeandyoufrequentlypayadvisorssubstantialamountsofmoney--whetherthey'
remutualfundmanagersorinstitutionalfundmanagers--there'
sthisleakagefromthesystemthatcausestheactiveresultsforthecommunityasawholetobenegative.Absolutelythesamethingistrueonthemarkettimingfront.Imean,totheextentthatyou'
remakingtheseshort-termbetsagainstyourlong-termpolicy,itrequirestradingandtradingisexpensive.It'
sveryexpensivewhenyoutakeintoaccountnotonlythedirectcosts,butalsothecoststhatyoupayadvisorstohelpyoumakethesedecisions.So,it'
snotsurprisingthatassetallocationexplainsmorethan100%ofreturnsandthat,forthecommunityasawhole,markettimingandsecurityselectionarecostlyandlowerthecommunity'
saggregateinvestmentreturns.
It'
salittlebitofadigression,butoneofthethingsthatI'
vewitnessedoverthepasttwentyyearsisthattheleakageofthe--theleakagefromthesystemintermsofthereturnsthatgototheownersofcapital--leakagehas
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