CHAPTER 32曼昆经济学Word文档格式.docx
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CHAPTER 32曼昆经济学Word文档格式.docx
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KEYPOINTS:
1.Toanalyzethemacroeconomicsofopeneconomies,twomarketsarecentral—themarketforloanablefundsandthemarketforforeign-currencyexchange.Inthemarketforloanablefunds,theinterestrateadjuststobalancethesupplyofloanablefunds(fromnationalsaving)andthedemandforloanablefunds(fromdomesticinvestmentandnetcapitaloutflow).Inthemarketforforeign-currencyexchange,therealexchangerateadjuststobalancethesupplyofdollars(fornetcapitaloutflow)andthedemandfordollars(fornetexports).Becausenetcapitaloutflowispartofthedemandforloanablefundsandprovidesthesupplyofdollarsforforeign-currencyexchange,itisthevariablethatconnectsthesetwomarkets.
2.Apolicythatreducesnationalsaving,suchasagovernmentbudgetdeficit,reducesthesupplyofloanablefundsanddrivesuptheinterestrate.Thehigherinterestratereducesnetcapitaloutflow,whichreducesthesupplyofdollarsinthemarketforforeign-currencyexchange.Thedollarappreciates,andnetexportsfall.
3.Althoughrestrictivetradepolicies,suchastariffsorquotasonimports,aresometimesadvocatedasawaytoalterthetradebalance,theydonotnecessarilyhavethateffect.Atraderestrictionincreasesnetexportsforagivenexchangerateand,therefore,increasesthedemandfordollarsinthemarketforforeign-currencyexchange.Asaresult,thedollarappreciatesinvalue,makingdomesticgoodsmoreexpensiverelativetoforeigngoods.Thisappreciationoffsetstheinitialimpactofthetraderestrictiononnetexports.
4.Wheninvestorschangetheirattitudesaboutholdingassetsofacountry,theramificationsforthecountry’seconomycanbeprofound.Inparticular,politicalinstabilitycanleadtocapitalflight,whichtendstoincreaseinterestratesandcausethecurrencytodepreciate.
OUTLINE:
I.SupplyandDemandforLoanableFundsandforForeign-CurrencyExchange
A.TheMarketforLoanableFunds
1.Wheneveranationsavesadollarofincome,itcanusethatdollartofinancethepurchaseofdomesticcapitalortofinancethepurchaseofanassetabroad.
2.Thesupplyofloanablefundscomesfromnationalsaving.
3.Thedemandforloanablefundscomesfromdomesticinvestmentandnetcapitaloutflow.
4.Thequantityofloanablefundsdemandedandthequantityofloanablefundssupplieddependontherealinterestrate.
a.Ahigherrealinterestrateencouragespeopletosaveandthusraisesthequantityofloanablefundssupplied.
b.Ahigherinterestratemakesborrowingtofinancecapitalprojectsmorecostly,discouraginginvestmentandreducingthequantityofloanablefundsdemanded.
c.Ahigherrealinterestrateinacountrywillalsolowernetcapitaloutflow.Allelseequal,ahigherdomesticinterestrateimpliesthatpurchasesofforeignassetsbydomesticresidentswillfallandpurchasesofdomesticassetsbyforeignerswillrise.
5.Thesupplyanddemandforloanablefundscanbeshowngraphically.
a.Therealinterestrateisthepriceofborrowingfundsandisthereforeontheverticalaxis;
thequantityofloanablefundsisonthehorizontalaxis.
b.Thesupplyofloanablefundsisupwardslopingbecauseofthepositiverelationshipbetweentherealinterestrateandthequantityofloanablefundssupplied.
c.Thedemandforloanablefundsisdownwardslopingbecauseoftheinverserelationshipbetweentherealinterestrateandthequantityofloanablefundsdemanded.
Figure1
6.Theinterestrateadjuststobringthesupplyanddemandforloanablefundsintobalance.
a.Iftheinterestratewasbelowr*,thequantityofloanablefundsdemandedwouldbegreaterthanthequantityofloanablefundssupplied.Thiswouldleadtoupwardpressureontheinterestrate.
b.Iftheinterestratewasabover*,thequantityofloanablefundsdemandedwouldbelessthanthequantityofloanablefundssupplied.Thiswouldleadtodownwardpressureontheinterestrate.
7.Attheequilibriuminterestrate,theamountthatpeoplewanttosaveisexactlyequaltothedesiredquantitiesofdomesticinvestmentandnetcapitaloutflow.
B.TheMarketforForeign-CurrencyExchange
1.Theimbalancebetweenthepurchaseandsaleofcapitalassetsabroadmustbeequaltotheimbalancebetweenexportsandimportsofgoodsandservices.
2.Netcapitaloutflowrepresentsthequantityofdollarssuppliedforthepurposeofbuyingassetsabroad.
3.NetexportsrepresentthequantityofdollarsdemandedforthepurposeofbuyingU.S.netexportsofgoodsandservices.
4.Therealexchangerateisthepricethatbalancesthesupplyanddemandinthemarketforforeign-currencyexchange.
a.WhentheU.S.realexchangerateappreciates,U.S.goodsbecomemoreexpensiverelativetoforeigngoods,loweringU.S.exportsandraisingimports.Thus,anincreaseintherealexchangeratewillreducethequantityofdollarsdemanded.
b.Thekeydeterminantofnetcapitaloutflowistherealinterestrate.Thus,astherealexchangeratechanges,therewillbenochangeinnetcapitaloutflow.
5.Wecanshowthemarketforforeign-currencyexchangegraphically.
a.Therealexchangerateisontheverticalaxis;
thequantityofdollarsexchangedisonthehorizontalaxis.
b.Thedemandfordollarswillbedownwardslopingbecauseoftheinverserelationshipbetweentherealexchangerateandthequantityofdollarsdemanded.
c.Thesupplyofdollarswillbeaverticallinebecauseofthefactthatchangesintherealexchangeratehavenoinfluenceonthequantityofdollarssupplied.
Figure2
6.Therealexchangerateadjuststobalancethesupplyanddemandfordollars.
a.Iftherealexchangeratewaslowerthanreale*,thequantityofdollarsdemandedwouldbegreaterthanthequantityofdollarssuppliedandtherewouldbeupwardpressureontherealexchangerate.
b.Iftherealexchangeratewashigherthanreale*,thequantityofdollarsdemandedwouldbelessthanthequantityofdollarssuppliedandtherewouldbedownwardpressureontherealexchangerate.
7.Attheequilibriumrealexchangerate,thedemandfordollarstobuynetexportsexactlybalancesthesupplyofdollarstobeexchangedintoforeigncurrencytobuyassetsabroad.
C.FYI:
Purchasing-PowerParityasaSpecialCase
1.Purchasing-powerparitysuggeststhatadollarmustbuythesamequantityofgoodsandservicesineverycountry.Asaresult,therealexchangerateisfixedandthenominalexchangerateisdeterminedbythepricelevelsinthetwocountries.
2.Purchasing-powerparityassumesthatinternationaltraderespondsquicklytointernationalpricedifferences.
a.Ifgoodswerecheaperinonecountrythananother,theywouldbeexportedfromthecountrywheretheyarecheaperandimportedintothesecondcountrywherethepricesarehigheruntilthepricedifferentialdisappears.
b.Becausenetexportsaresoresponsivetosmallchangesintherealexchangerate,purchasing-powerparityimpliesthatthedemandfordollarswouldbehorizontal.Thus,purchasing-powerparityissimplyaspecialcaseofthemodeloftheforeign-currencyexchangemarket.
c.However,itismorerealistictodrawthedemandcurvedownwardsloping.
II.EquilibriumintheOpenEconomy
A.NetCapitalOutflow:
TheLinkbetweentheTwoMarkets
1.Inthemarketforloanablefunds,netcapitaloutflowisoneofthesourcesofdemand.
Figure3
2.Intheforeign-currencyexchangemarket,netcapitaloutflowisthesourceofthesupplyofdollars.
3.Thismeansthatnetcapitaloutflowisthevariablethatlinksthetwomarkets.
4.Thekeydeterminantofnetcapitaloutflowistherealinterestrate.
5.Wecanshowtherelationshipbetweennetcapitaloutflowandtherealinterestrategraphically.
a.Whentherealinterestrateishigh,owningdomesticassetsismoreattractiveandthus,netcapitaloutflowislow.
b.Thisinverserelationshipimpliesthatnetcapitaloutflowwillbedownwardsloping.
c.Notethatnetcapitaloutflowcanbepositiveornegative.
B.SimultaneousEquilibriuminTwoMarkets
Figure4
1.Therealinterestrateisdeterminedinthemarketforloanablefunds.
2.Thisrealinterestratedeterminesthelevelofnetcapitaloutflow.
3.Becausenetcapitaloutflowmustbepaidforwithforeigncurrency,thequantityofnetcapitaloutflowdeterminesthesupplyofdollars.
4.Theequilibriumrealexchangeratebringsintobalancethequantityofdollarssuppliedandthequantityofdollarsdemanded.
5.Thus,therealinterestrateandtherealexchangerateadjustsimultaneouslytobalancesupplyanddemandinthetwomarkets.Astheydoso,theydeterminethelevelsofnationalsaving,domesticinvestment,netcapitaloutflow,andnetexports.
III.HowPoliciesandEventsAffectanOpenEconomy
A.GovernmentBudgetDeficits
Figure5
1.Agovernmentbudgetdeficitoccurswhenthegovernmentspendingexceedsgovernmentrevenue.
2.Becauseagovernmentdeficitrepresentsnegativepublicsaving,itlowersnationalsaving.Thisleadstoadeclineinthesupplyofloanablefunds.
3.Therealinterestraterises,leadingtoadeclineinbothdomesticinvestmentandnetcapitaloutflow.
4.Becausenetcapitaloutflowfalls,peopleneedlessforeigncurrencytobuyforeignassetssothesupplyofdollarsdeclines.
5.Therealexchangeraterises,making
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