阅读与摘要PIW01Word文档格式.docx
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阅读与摘要PIW01Word文档格式.docx
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2010-11-22
[T201]OpecPreparesForToughStartToNewDecade(A1组必选)
Opecistryingtomentallyprepareitsownmembersandproducersoutsidethecartelforarockystarttothenewdecade.Iftheglobaleconomicrecoverycontinuesatitscurrentslowbutsustainedpace,oilsupplywilloutrundemandinthefirsthalfof2010andOpecproducerswillhavetoreininoutputtobalancethemarket.Anyhiccupintheeconomicrecoverywillleadtoanevenbiggersurplus—afactnotlostonworriedOpecministerswhentheymetinAngolalastmonth.Opec'
sownestimatessuggestthatitwouldneedtotrimproductionby400,000barrelsperdayfromNovemberlevelstopreventstocksfrombuildingnextyear,althoughPfWcalculatesthatitmightneedtocutcloserto800,000b/d.AttheDec.22meetinginLuanda,Opecdecidedtokeeptheofficialtargetforits11memberswithaquota—Iraqhasnone—at24.845millionb/d,butactualoutputissome2.2millionb/dhigher,PIWestimates.TherolloveroftheofficialceilingthusleavesOpecroomtotightensupplybyimprovingcompliancewithouthavingtomakeanychangetoformaloutputtargets.
Opecministersrepeatedwhatislikelytobeafutilepleafornon-Opecproducerstohelpdealwiththecrudesupplyoverhang,acknowledginginthecommuniquefromlastmonth'
smeetingthattheycannotbeartheburdenofstabilizingthemarketontheirown.Butifnon-Opecproducerswerenotpreparedtohelpwhenoilpriceswereinthelow$30sperbarrelearlylastyear,whywouldtheyhelpnow,whenpricesareabove$70/bbl?
Afterall,pricesaround$75/bblweredescribedas"
excellent"
and"
perfect"
inLuandabySaudiArabianOilMinisterAliNaimi,andOpec,despiteitscautiouseconomicoutlook,believespricesarelikelytoremainstable.AngolanOilMinisterJoseMariaBotelhodeVasconcelos,whowasalsoOpecpresidentduring2009,didshowsomefrustrationandurgedsolidarity:
"
Opeccutsandothersstepintofillthegap."
Buthealsoconcededthathisowncountrywasproducingoverquota—justlikeNigeria,IranandVenezuela.Andeventhoughcompliancehasslippedsharplyinrecentmonths,Opec'
saverage2009outputisexpectedtocomeinatamassive2.7millionb/dbelowthatof2008(PIWDec.21,p2).
ThedrawdownincrudestockshasbeenhaltedbydeterioratingOpeccomplianceandrisingnon-Opecoutput.Butfornow,Opec'
sbiggerworryisagrowingoverhangintheproductsmarket,overwhichithaslesscontrol.Massivevolumesofmiddledistillates,mostlydiesel,havebuiltupinonshoretanksandinvesselsatsea(PIWDec.14,p3)."
Chancesarethatrefinerieswillhavetocutbackrunsfurthertodrawdownthesestocks,andthatmeanslesscrudewillbeneeded,"
onecrudetradernoted.Ifthathappens,Opecwillneedtodeliveradrasticimprovementincompliance.Willthathappen?
Everybodywill,hopefully,complywithwhattheyagreedto,"
Naimisaid."
Andsofar,thingsareholding."
Opecmightbeabletorideoutthecurrentstorm,butnewonesarebrewing.Iraq,forone,hasmassiveexpansionplansthatcouldseeitsoutputcapacityrisefrom2.5millionb/dto11millionb/dby2017.Itwilltakeanequallyrapidexpansionindemandtoabsorballthisnewoil.OpecofficialsanddelegatesdoubtIraqcandeliverthisincreaseincapacityatthepaceitcurrentlyhasinmind—Baghdadseesthefirstnewproductionfromitstworecentlicensingroundscomingonlinein2011,butOpecSecretaryGeneralAbdullahal-Badrisaidatimeframeoffivetosixyearswouldbemorerealistic(PIWDec.21,p1).OtherOpecdelegatesalsoarguedthatitwouldtakeIraqseveralyearstoputinplacethepipelines,terminals,portexpansionsandotherinfrastructuretohandlethisnewproductioncapacity.
[T202]CopenhagenADisappointmentForOilIndustry
Itwouldbehardtofindanygroupentirelysatisfiedwiththedealthatemergedfromlastmonth'
sUNclimatechangesummitinCopenhagen,buttheoilindustryhasmorereasontofeeldisappointedthanmost.Monthsofhypeandtwoweeksoffranticandoftenchaoticnegotiationsproducedathree-pagedocumentthatfailedtogivetheindustrythecertaintyoverfutureclimatechangelegislationthatitwaslookingfor,andindustryofficialswerecriticalofboththelackofalegallybindingagreementandthelackofconsultationwiththeenergyindustryoverhowfuturereductionsingreenhousegasemissionswillbeachieved.Theso-called"
CopenhagenAccord,"
tabledonthefinaldayoftheconferencebyacollectionofcountriesincludingtheUSandChina,outlinedtheneedforactionandrecognizedthatgovernmentsmustlimitglobaltemperaturerisestolessthan2°
C.Italsoprovided$30billionperyearoffundingforpoorcountriestoadapttoclimatechangefrom2010-12,and$100billionannuallyby2020.Therewerenodetailsofemissioncutsfromspecificcountries,althoughthedocumentdidsetaJan.31,2010deadlineforallindustrializednationstooutlinetheirtargets.
OilcompanieshadbeenhopingthatCopenhagenwouldlaythefoundationsforaclear,consistentregulatoryframework,buttheeventualagreementfellalongwayshortofthoseexpectations.Itwasunclearhowthepoliticalwilltowardsreducingcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsondisplayatthesummitwouldtranslateintoconcreteaction,RoyalDutchShellsaid,whileNorway'
sStatoil,whichhadoneofthelargestoilcompanydelegations,calledongovernmentstodomoreandcommitto"
greatergoals"
(PIWNov.16,p3).OilcompaniesgenerallykeptalowprofileinCopenhagen,butmostofthemajorenergyfirmsdidhaverepresentativesinattendance,usuallyagroupofclimatechangeorgovernmentpolicyadvisorsattachedtoamajorbusinesslobbygroup.SeniorlevelexecutivespresentincludedStatoilChiefExecutiveHelgeLund,formerShellbossJeroenvanderVeerandOpecSecretaryGeneralAbdullahal-Badri.
Thelackofafirmdealprolongsthecurrentperiodofuncertaintyandwillmakethechangesnecessarytomeetemissionsreductiontargetsmoredifficultandcostlyforallconcerned.Thedelaymayhavebeenunavoidableduetotheinterminableargumentsbetweendevelopedanddevelopingnations,butitisalsolikelytobeexpensive—theInternationalEnergyAgencyestimatesthateveryyearofdelayinagreeingabindingdealaddsanextra$500billiontothecostofmeetingemissionstargets.Thedisappointingoutcomemayalsoimpactpeople'
sfaithintheabilityofgovernment-ledinitiativestoreduceCO2emissions,theAmericanPetroleumInstitutesaidafterthesummitclosed.Asthesummitprogressed,delegatesbegantoswitchtheiremphasisfromgettingadealdoneatCopenhagentothenextsummitsscheduledforMayinBonnandDecemberinMexicoCity.ButtherearefewsignsthattheargumentsthatdoggedtheCopenhagentalkswillberesolvedbythen.
Onamorepositivenote,oilcompanyofficialssaidthatthefactthatthedealemergedfromdirectnegotiationsandeventualagreementbetweentheUSandChina,theworld'
stwolargestemitters,wasasmallstepintherightdirection.Butgovernmentsstillfaceanuphillbattletostrikeadealthisyear,Shellnotedafterthesummit'
sclose:
Muchneedstobedonein2010."
[T203]BrazilLooksForwardToYearOfDelivery(B1组必选)
Braziliansliketojokethattheirhomelandisthecountryofthefuture—andalwayswillbe.Brazil'
soilindustry,however,doesn'
treallyconformtothatnationalstereotype,andin2010shouldstartfulfillingsomeofitsenormouspotential.PilotproductionwillbeginthisyearfromthegiantTupifield,thefirstofthecountry'
shugeoffshoresubsaltdiscoveries,whileoutputwillincreaseatexistingfieldsintheCamposBasin,Brazil'
smainproducingregion,liftingoiloutputto2.17millionbarrelsperdayin2010fromlastyear'
saverageof1.96millionb/d,accordingtoPIWestimates(PIWDec.7,p5).TheCamposBasinwillseeseverallargefieldsstartingupinthenextyearortwo.State-controlledPetrobraswillincreaseoutputfromfloatingproduction,storageandoffloadingvesselsontheRoncador,AlbacoraandMarlimsatellitefields,whileChevronwillrampupproductionfromitsFradefield,whichissettoreachpeakoutputof90,000barrelsofoilequivalentperdayin2011.Norway'
sStatoilstartsdevelopmentdrillingonitsPeregrinofieldinthesecondhalfofthisyear,aimingtostartproductioninearly2011andhitpeakoutputof100,000b/din2012.Inthesubsaltzone,Petrobrasplanstostartpilotproductionof100,000b/dfromTupiinOctober.TheGuaradiscoveryisthecompany'
snexttarget,withanextendedwelltestdueinMayandfirstoutputin2013.PetrobrasisalsoconsideringanextendedwelltestthisyearinTupiNordesteorCarioca.
ButwhiletherewillbeplentyofdrillinganddevelopmentactivityintheBrazilianupstreamthisyear,thereareunlikelytobemanynewopportunitiesforinternationaloilcompanies(IOCs).Thegovernmentwillholdits11thannualbidroundinmid-2010,buttheblocksonofferwillbelimitedtoonshoreandshallowwaterareas.NoblockswithsubsaltpotentialcanbeoffereduntilthegovernmenthasapprovedmajoroilreformscurrentlymakingtheirwaythroughCongress(PIWMar.2,p3).Politicalanalystsexpectthelowerhousetoapprovethereformsearlythisyear,butatrickierbattleintheSenatecoulddelayapprovalforseveralmonths(PIWAug.17,p1).Thatwouldleavethenationaloilregulator,theANH,withlittletimetoorganizeasubsaltbidroundbeforetheendoftheyear.
Awayfromthesubsalt,2010isalsoshapinguptobeacriticalyearintermsofchangesinhowbothBrazilandthecountry'
soilsectorarerun.PresidentialelectionsarescheduledforOctober,andwithPresidentLuizInaci
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