开题报告论文populationWord文档下载推荐.docx
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1.2Background
(1)Thepopulationgrowsto1billionand295millionpopulationbytheyearof2000.
PopulationagingprobleminChinaissevere,weshouldtakecareandfindthesolution.
Itissaidthatthepopulationgrowthto1billionand295millionpopulationbytheyearof2000inChinaNationalBureauofStatisticsin2003-2012.
Fig.1China’spopulationgrowthFig.2ThetrendofChina’spopulation
(2)ThelargenumberofChina’spopulationisthepeoplewhoseageis15to64inrecentyears.Alongwiththeyearchanged,thepopulationoftheagemorethan65yearsissustainablegrow.
FromChinaNationalBureauofStatisticsin2007-2012wecanknowthatthepopulationisexpectedtocontinuetoincrease,andthespeedissofast.
Thedatadisplaysthepopulationwillincreaseto2billionand400millionin2050,anditshowsthelargenumberofChina'
spopulationarethepersonwhoseageis15to64inrecentyears.
Astimegoesby,thenumberofpersonwhoseageisolderthan65yearsisincreasing.
Accordingtotherelevantliterature,morethantenyearslater,thetotalpopulationofChinawillbelessthantheexistinglevel.
Fig.3ThestructureofChina’spopulationin2010to2014
2.StatementsandProblems
ThispaperhasdiscussedtheChina'
spopulationaginganditrelatedtosocialsecurityproblemsandeconomicproblems.
ManyyearsofbirthcontrolpolicyhaveresultedinaseverepopulationagingprobleminChina.
Chinahasestablishedasocialsecuritysystemofacombinedsocialpoolingaccountandpersonalaccounts.
Foryears,fundsfrompersonalaccountsweredivertedtofillthegapinthesocialpoolingaccount,resultingingrowingsocialsecuritydebt.
Whatwearefacingisnotthecompetitivepressurefromthelargeamountofpeople,buttheshortageoflabor.
Whilethesocialsecuritysystemiscontrolledbythegovernment,andChina'
ssocialsecuritysystemislargelyapay-as-you-gosystem,thenthesocialpressureheavierandheavierowingtotheproblem,wemustrevisethesecuritysystemthatdelayedretirementforexamplenow.
Thefollowing,believingthatthepensionreplacementrateofmanpoweraccountishardtoobtain,soitwillcoordinatethemanpoweraccountfundsandpersonalaccountfundasaunifiedpensionfundstomeasure.
Specificparameters'
settingsandprojectionsarehighcontributionrates,highreplacementrates,andhighdebtinthesocialsecurityaccount.
3.LiteratureReviewandReferences
3.1currentresearchstatus
(1)China'
spopulationismoresevere(ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics.(2003-2012)).
Fig.4China’spopulationanditsgrowthrate1949–2100.
Fig.5showsthepopulationtrendofpersonsage65oroverforChina,India,Japan,UnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates
Itappearedthepopulationgrowthpeakthreetimeslastcentury,andthebirthrateswereabove20perthousandafterentering90s,andthenthebirthratesdecreasedyearbyyear.
In2005droppedto12.40perthousand.
ManyyearsofbirthcontrolpolicyhaveresultedinaseverepopulationagingprobleminChina.Accordingtothepaper,althoughChina'
spopulationismorethanIndia,butonly60%ofthepopulationofchildreninIndia,whichisthebirthrateofChina'
spopulationisfarlowerthantheresultofIndia.
Accordingtofigureintheresearch,in2014China'
s14yearoldpopulationaccountedforonly16.5%ofthetotalpopulation,comparedto16.6%in2010anddown0.1%,hasbeeninaseriousminority,significantlylowerthantheworld'
saverageof27%.
Accordingtothecurrentbirthrateofthepopulationprojections,morethantenyearslater,thetotalpopulationofChinawillbelessthanthetotalofexisting.
Duetotheagingintensifies,childrenundertheageof14droptobelow15%,overtheageof60nonlaboragingpopulationwillreachabout33%,20yearsoldofthefollowingnonlaborpopulationaboutisabout18%,nonlaborpopulationaccountedfor50%,thenthetotallaborforcepopulationwilldroptobelow5billion,ratherthan"
within30yearswillremainatbetween700millionto800million"
.
NationalBureauofstatisticsdatashowsthatin2012and2013,China'
sworkingagepopulationrespectivelyoverthepreviousyeardecreasedby345million,244million,2014,overtheageof16to60yearsofage(notincluding60yearsofage)oftheworkingagepopulation91583people,overthepreviousyeardecreased371millionpeople,accountingforthetotalpopulationaccountedfor67%,comparedwiththepreviousyeardecreased6inathousand.
Whatwearefacingisnotthepressureoflaborshortageandthestructuralunemploymentcausedbytheshortageoflabor.
(2)Theone-childpolicycontributestotheproblem(ChinaMinistryofLaborandSocialSecurity.(2001)).
China'
spopulationagingproblemismoreseverethanothercountriesbecauseoftheone-childpolicyadoptedintheearly1980s,increasingtheretirementageandthecurrentsocialsecuritysystemisnotsustainable.ItchallengestoChina'
ssocialsecuritysystem.
Maintainingthecurrentreplacementandcontributionrates,socialsecuritydebtwillbeexplosive.Thenincreasetheretirementage.
(3)Thecurrentsocialsecuritysystemisnotsustainable(Diamond,P.A.,&
Barr,N.(2006)).
Fundsfrompersonalaccountshavebeenusedtofinancethedeficitsinthesocialpoolingaccount.
Peopleolderthan60yearscanreceiveapension.Socialproblemsindifferenttimesreflectdifferentcontents.
Populationprobleminmoderntimesisoneofthemostimportantsocialproblemsintheworld,whichisthecoreofmanysocialproblems.
Althoughitisdifferentindifferentcountries,itsessenceismainlymanifestedinthepopulationreproductionandthematerialreproductionofthedisorder,populationgrowthovereconomicgrowthandtheemergenceofpopulationsurplus.
InChina,forinstance,agreatvarietyofproblemsthatweencounteredinoursociallifearedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtotheenormouspressureonpopulationintheprocessofdevelopment.
Firstofall,populationpressuretoprovidetheexistingpopulationlivingconditionsandimprovethelivingstandardsofthepeople,hasencounteredinsurmountabledifficulties.
Theobviousperformancefortheemploymentisdifficult,suchashousingshortageoffood,fuelandothernecessitiesoflife,theperformanceoftheagingpopulation,etc.
3.2Developmentdirectionresearchstatus
(1)Growingsocialsecuritydebt
Growingsocialsecuritydebtisbecomingaseriousproblemnow(Shiller.R.J.(2006)).Maintainingthecurrentreplacementandcontributionrates,socialsecuritydebtwillbeexplosive.
ThentheincreasingtheretirementagewhichChina'
spensionsystemfacestheoneoftheproblemsispopulationaging.
Fundsfrompersonalaccountsmustbeusedtofinancedeficitsinthesocialpoolingaccount.
Thendebtwillincreaseinthefuture.
Thecurrentsystemisnotsustainablewithoutreforms.
Thesocialsecuritysystemwascontrolledbythegovernment.Chinabegantoreformitscentrallyplannedeconomyin1978.
InJune1991,athree-tiersystemwasestablished.
Thecurrentsocialsecuritycontributionsandbenefitsweredefinedin2005.
Alargenumberofpeopleneedthesocialsecuritypensionwhileafewpeoplepaythegovernmenttaxes.
spopulationagingproblemismoreseverethanothercountriesbecauseoftheone-childpolicyadoptedintheearly1980s,andthecurrentsocialsecuritysystemisnotsustainable.
Atwo-sectoroverlappinggenerationmodelisdevelopedtoanalyzeinnovationofsocialsecurityinChina.
Itisshownthatifthegovernmentdonenothingtoreformthesystem,maintainingthecurrentchangeandcontributionrates,socialsecuritydebtwillbeexplosive.
Variousreformsareconsidered,includingadjustingthereplacementratewhilekeepingthecontributionrateconstant,increasingthecontributionratewhilemaintainingthecurrentreplacementrate,increasingtheretirementagewiththecontributionratebeingunchanged,increasingtheretirementagewiththereplacementratebeingunchanged,andswitchingtoafully-fundedsystembyusinggovernmentassetstopaytheimplicitsocialsecuritydebt.
Theeffectsofthesereformsoncapitalaccumulation,theoutput,andthewelfareforeachgenerationaresimulatedandcompared.
ThispaperdiscussesChina'
spopulationagingproblemandtheresultingchallengestoChina'
Theeffectsofvariousreformstothesocialsecuritysystemoncapitalaccumulation,theoutput,andwelfareforindividualsinatwo-sectoroverlappinggenerationsmodelareanalyzed.
spopulationagingandtherelatedsocialsecurityproblemsarereallyanobviousproblem.
Thepaperdevelopedatwo-sectorcomputa
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