Carbon Tax Research Report碳税效应研究Word格式.docx
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Carbon Tax Research Report碳税效应研究Word格式.docx
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3.TheSpecificResearchObjectivestobeaddressed6
4.CriticalAnalysisoftheMethods7
5.TheDatatobeusedinThisReport14
6.ResultsandDiscussion15
7.ImplicationsfortheBusinessProblem16
References17
1.ExecutiveSummary
Carbontaxhasbecomeanimportanteconomicmeasuretopromotelow-carboneconomyinmanycountries.InordertotestthepotentialimpactofcarbontaxonChina'
seconomicgrowth,thisreportwillexplaintherelationshipbetweencarbontaxandeconomicgrowthwithempiricalanalysis.Then,basedonthedatecollectedandanalyzed,thisreportwillconcludethattherearesignificantdifferencesbetweenregionandindustry.Underalow-strengthcarbontaxpolicy,carbontaxcanpromoteeconomicgrowthinmostoftheeasternprovinces,buthindereconomicgrowthinsomeprovincesincentralandwesternregions;
meanwhile,carbontaxexertsapositiveinfluenceonmostindustriesyetitmaynotconducivetothedevelopmentofasmallnumberofindustries.
1.BackgroundofReportandResearch
Sincetheindustrialrevolution,theglobehaswitnessedarapidanddramaticincreaseoffossilfuelsexploitation.Thus,theever-increasingemissionsofgreenhousegasesexacerbatetheglobalclimatechange.Manyscholarshavedonealotoftheoreticalandempiricalresearchofrelevantemissionreductionmeasures,theconclusionsshowthatlevyofcarbontaxcannotonlyeffectivelymitigateclimatewarmingproblembutalsocanhaveasignificantimpactonthemacroeconomicandindustrialsectors(Goto,1995).SomeacademicsalsofoundthatonlylevyofcarbontaxhasanegativeimpactonGDP,whileimplementingtradingemissionsrightswillboostGDPgrowth(Lee,2008).ResearchoncarbontaxesandChina'
seconomicdevelopmentshowedthatcarbontaxwillhavenegativeeffectsonChina'
sGDP(Gao,2002).Butthatdoesnotmeanthatcarbontaxisnotalong-termstimulustotheeconomy,becausecarbontaxmaychangetheincomedistributionstructurethereforedecreasethewholecommunitywagelevelsandreducethelevelofconsumption,thenChina'
slong-standingeconomicdevelopmentwouldberestricted.
Obviously,carbontaxhasasignificantimpactonGDP.Then,whatistheinfluenceofcarbontaxondifferentindustries?
Throughempiricalstudy,somescholarsconfirmedthatimpactofcarbontaxisdifferentonsectors:
highemissionsenergysectoristhemostaffected;
toys,textiles,andclothingsufferedthegreatestamongnon-energysector;
tourism,communications,electronicsandotherlow-carbonsectorhasmorebenefits(Zhu,2010).Insummary,theabovetheoreticalorempiricalanalysisontherelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowthandcarbontaxesareonlycarriedoutusingasimpletime-seriesorcross-sectionalanalysisofsequence,theyfailedtoexplainonthespecificrelationshipofeconomicgrowthandcarbontax.Thisreportwillutilizepaneldatamodelforempiricalanalysiswhichisacombinationoftime-seriesandcross-sectiondata.ItcananalyzetheimpactofdifferentChineseprovincesinacertainperiod(municipalitiesandautonomousregions)ofthecarbontaxoneconomicgrowth,butalsocantaketimefactorsintoaccount,comparisonbetweendifferentregionsanddifferentindustriescanbemadethereby.
2.TheSpecificResearchObjectivestobeAddressed
Theactualeffectsofcarbontaxhavesprungupheateddiscussionamongacademia.Ontheonehand,anumberofscholarsarguedthatthelevyofcarbontaxwilldamagethelong-termdevelopmentofeconomy.Ontheotherhand,someresearchersevenworriedthatitwouldnotbeeffectivetoimplementsuchkindofpolicyandlaws.Therefore,thisreportwillfocusonthiscontentiontostudyin-depthintotherealinfluenceofcarbontax,especiallywithinChina’satmosphere.First,thisreportwillutilizethecollecteddatafromauthoritiestoestablishamodelforregressionanalysis.Then,withthegivenresultsandstudy,itwillfurtheranalyzeitsimpactonChina’sGDPandeconomystructure.Last,relevantsuggestionswillbeputforwardtoimprovepositiveeffectsofcarbontax.
3.CriticalAnalysisoftheMethods
4.1ResearchDesignandDataCollection
•Variableselectionanddatasources
A.Economicgrowth:
Whenanalyzingtheimpactofcarbontaxoneconomicgrowthindifferentregions,thisreportwillusevariousprovinces(municipalitiesandautonomousregions)oftheGrossDomesticProduct(Unit:
100million),regionalrealGDPindex(excludingthepricefactor)willbeperformedduringthecalculation.Industryoutputisbasedonindustriesaddedvalueinyearlybasis,whichisnominalvalueatcurrentpricesdividedbytheconsumerpriceindexforChina-relatedactualvalueobtainedinvariousindustries(Holmlund,2000).
B.Fixedassetinvestment:
Thebaseyearis1978,itwillusetheprovinces(municipalitiesandautonomousregions)offixedassetsinvestmentindextocalculatetheactualamountofinvestmentovertheyears(Unit:
100million).Inaddition,theactualvalueoftheindustryfixedassetsinvestmentisthesameastheoutputvalueoftheindustry.
C.Employment:
Employmentdatausedinthisreportreferstothetotalemploymentinthecountryandthenumberofpersonsemployedinvariousindustries.
D.Carbontax:
SinceChinahasnotstartedlevyingcarbontax,carbontaxdatausedinthisarticleisassumed.Thisarticleassumesthatpertonemissionsofstandardcoalis2.7tonCO2,and30yuanwillbeleviedon1tonCO2.Thus,theamountofcarbontaxescanbecalculatedbyproductoftotalenergyconsumption,unitenergyconsumptionandunitCO2levyamount(Wissema,2007).
•ModelConstruction
Inordertotestthespecificimpactofcarbontaxoneconomicgrowthanddevelopmentindifferentsectors,thisreportusesthemodifiedCobb-Douglasproductionfunctionanalysis,theproductionfunctionis:
Inthisfunction,YrepresentsGDPorindustryaddedvalue,Krepresentsthefixedassetinvestment,Lrepresentsemployment,CTrepresentscarbontax(k×
f×
LnEC),ECrepresentsthetotalenergyconsumption,krepresentstheCO2emissionfactorofunitenergyconsumption,frepresentstheunitCO2taxstandards.
Takethelogarithmonbothsidesoftheequation
(1),econometricmodelofcarbontax,economicgrowthandindustryis:
Intheequation
(2),μiisarandomerrorterm.Next,thisreportwilldeterminethespecificformofthemodel,namelyci,αi,βi,γiareequalornot,whichrequirestestingforthefollowingtwoassumptions:
Intheoriginalhypothesis,H2representsthemodelinterceptandcoefficientsareequal,thenullhypothesisH1representsthemodelinterceptequal.Then,testtheoriginalhypothesisH2,ifnullhypothesisH2canbeaccepted,testontheoriginalhypothesisH1isnolongerneeded,whichindicatesthatthemodelinterceptandcoefficientsareequal;
IfnullhypothesisH2isrejected,theoriginalhypothesisshouldbetested,thustodeterminetheinterceptareequalornot.Afterthat,paneldatashouldbecalculated,theresultisF2=337.4563>
F0.01(28,258),whichrejectsthenullhypothesisH2;
thencalculateFstatisticwhichcorrespondstonullhypothesisH1:
F1=8.069>
F0.01(28,174),theresultrejectsnullhypothesisH1.Inaddition,thisreportfocusesoncomparativeanalysisoftheprovincesandindustry,andpaneldataincludesmostChineseprovincesandthreemajorindustries,soitisreasonabletousefixedeffectsmodelanalysisandtoperformleastsquaresestimationandHausmantestonmodel
(2)onitsrandomeffects,andalsofoundthatthefixedeffectsmodelisbetterthantherandomeffectsmodel.Therefore,thisreportestablishesfixedeffectsmodelwithvariablecoefficients,namelyαi,βi,γiindifferentprovincesanddifferentsectorscorrespondingtodifferentvalues.
4.2SamplingProcess
Inthisarticle,relevantpaneldataofprovincesandindustriesareusedtoestimatemodel
(2),theresultsshowthattherandomerrortermoftwospecificmodelsareobviousserialcorrelation,whichrequirestheestimationmethodtoimprovethemodel,thusitisrationaltoperformgeneralizedleastsquaresestimation,estimationresultsindicatethattheautocorrelationbeeneffectivelyeliminated.TwomodelestimationresultshowninTable1andTable2.
Table1TheregressionresultsofacarbontaxandEconomicGrowth
Note:
Thevaluesinparenthesesarethecorrespondingt;
*,**,and***respectivelyrepresents1%,5%,10%onthesignificantlevelssignificantly.
Table2Theregressionresultsofrelationshipbetweencarbontaxanddevelopmentofindustry
Figuresinparenthesesaretheestimatedvalueofthecorrespondingtstatistics,*,**respectivelydenotes1%,5%significancelevelonsignificant.Unmarkedcoefficientestimatesin10%indicatessignificantbyt-testisnothorizontal.
4.3TheFinalSample
Table1showstherelationshipbetweencarbontaxandprovincialeconomicgrowth,adjustedR2valueis0.9994thatindicatesthattheeffectofthemodelfitisverygood.Fvalueisrelativelylarge,andmostoftheparameterestimatesatthe10%significancelevelissignificantwhichindicatesthattheestimatedresultsofthemodelisreasonable.Mostoftheparameterestimatesatthe10%significancelevelistested,therearesignificantregionaldifferencesofcarbontaxinfluenceoneconomicgrowth.CarbontaxhasgreaterimpactonBeijing,JiangsuandShandong,whileSichuan,Hubei,Xinjiangislessaffected.Thedifferenceofcarbontaxoneconomicgrowthisobvious.Insummary,ifc
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