商务英语教案2 Trade Protectionism alert.docx
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商务英语教案2 Trade Protectionism alert.docx
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TradeProtectionismAlert
Theworldshouldheedwarningsthatbarrierstotradearecreepingup
Jun30th2012|fromtheprintedition
WHENthefinancialcrisishit,theG20,groupingtogethercountriesthatproducemorethan85%oftheworld’sGDP,madealltherightnoisesabouttrade.Worldleadersweredeterminednottorepeatthemistakesofthe1930s,whenprotectionismledtoeconomicdisaster;andtheirapparentsuccessinensuringthatglobalmarketsstayedopenhasbeenarareglimmeroflightintheeconomicgloom.
Yeteventhisoptimismmaybemisplaced.AsareportfromtheWorldTradeOrganisation(WTO)warnsthisweek,thebarriersarecreepingbackup.
Onthefaceofit,allseemswell.TheG20continuestopreachthevirtuesoffreetradeeachtimeitmeets,mostrecentlyinLosCabosinMexico.Despitethedeepsuspicionsbetweenthem,tradebetweenthetwoemerginggiants,ChinaandIndia,isbooming.Russia,theonejumboemergingmarketthatisnotyetamemberoftheWTO,willjoinbyJuly23rd,after19yearsofaccessiontalks;iftherecentexperienceofChinaandVietnamisanyguide,foreigninvestmentinRussiawilljumpasthemarketopens.Regionalagreementsareproliferating,too.In2010atradedealcoveringcloseto30%oftheworld’spopulation—theChina-ASEANFree-TradeArea—wasstruck.TheEuropeanUnion,itselfthebiggestfree-tradeareaintermsofvalue,madesidedealswithColombiaandPeruearlierthismonth.BiggerEUdeals,withIndia,JapanandperhapsAmerica,areinthepipeline.
Andthereisnodoubtthattradehasthepotentialtoflourishintheyearsahead.Inanewlong-runforecastpublishedthisweek,HSBCpredictsthatworldtradewill
Protectionismalert
growbycloseto90%overthenext15years—advancingmodestlyatfirst,becauseoftheeurocrisis,thenvigorously.Inadditiontotop-downnumber-crunching,HSBCalsolookedatexpectationsfromthebottomup.Viewsitgatheredfromthousandsofsmallfirmsinvolvedinimportsandexportssupporttheoptimisticoutlook.
Awatchdogbarks
ButtheWTOisworried.Itdetectsasteadyriseinbarriers,despitethepromisesatG20summits.Thenewrestrictionsrangefromhighertariffstocostlyimportlicencesandcustomscontrols.Individualexamplescanseemtrivial—newminimumpricesforbackpacksandpramsinArgentina,forexample,ornewtariffsonlawn-mower-bladesinSouthAfrica—butthecumulativeimpactissignificant.Anincreasinglypopularmethodnowadaysistostrangletradersnotwithhightariffs,whichareeasytospot,butwithredtape,whichisnot.
Governmentsoftenjustifythesestepsasshort-termremediesforparticularproblems.Subsidiesforahard-hitexportsector,say,seemtomakesenseasaresponsetotheglobaldownturn.Butbarriersareeasiertoputinplacethantoremove,sotheshareoftradeheldbackbyprotectionistmeasurestendstogrowovertime.TheWTO’sdirector-general,PascalLamy,alsodetectslonger-runstrategicdecisionstodistortmarketsinordertopromotenationalindustries.
Noristheproliferationofregionaltradeagreementsanentirelygoodthing.Theyhaveflourished,inpart,becauseofthefailureofthemultilateralDohatraderound,whichwaslaunchedbackin2001andisgoingnowhereslowly.Regionaldealscandiverttraderatherthancreateit.Therearetoomanyregionaldeals:
Britainisamemberofover30.Althoughtheydolowersomebarriers,mostdonothingtotacklethehighesttariffs.Andeachdealtendstoenshrinethepreferencesofitslargestmember,makingithardertobringregionalblockstogetherwithinacohesivesetofglobaltraderules.
Russia’sentryintotheWTO,atlonglast,iswelcome,butitsmotivesareuncertain.HopesthattheWTOwillmakeitsoftenitsprotectionistpoliciesseemnaive,giventhatPresidentVladimirPutinisalreadytryingtochangetheclub’srules.
MrPutinwantstoprotectRussianindustriesfromexternalcompetition,includingbyincreasingsubsidiestofarmers.
TheWTOshouldresistthat,andkeepsoundingthealarmatsignsofG20backsliding.ButMrLamy’soutfitcandolittleaboutthebiggestloomingthreattofreetrade,whichcomesfromthecrisisintheeurozone.UntilnowtheEuropeanUnion’ssinglemarket,thoughfarfromperfect,hasbeenashiningexampleofasustainedanddeterminedefforttobringtradebarriersdownandofthebenefitsthatbrings.Thecurrentcrisis,ifitleadstothebreak-upoftheeuro,couldbringaboutacatastrophicbreak-upofthesinglemarket—repeatingthemistakesofthe1930safterall.Ifevertherewasatimetorememberthedangersofprotectionism,itisnow.
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