视频经济学金融市场 16 货币政策 Monetary PolicyWord文件下载.docx
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视频经济学金融市场 16 货币政策 Monetary PolicyWord文件下载.docx
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JeremySiegel,StocksfortheLongRun,chapters11,12,and13
Hawtrey,R.G.,TheArtofCentralBanking,chapter4,pp.116-123
FinancialMarkets:
Lecture16Transcript
ProfessorRobertShiller:
Iwanttotalktodayaboutmonetarypolicy.Firstthough,IwantedtojustreviewsomethoughtsaboutCarlIcahn,whospokeonMonday.Ithoughthewasveryamusing.I'
magainhappythatyouaskedquestionsbecausethat'
swhenyoubringoutaspeakerreallywell.Ithoughtyoucouldhavegivenhimmoretrouble.Heisacontroversialfigure.Whathedoes,asyouknow,istakesoveracompanyandshakesthemupand,insomecases,isaccusedofstrippingtheirassets.But,it'
salllegalandyoucouldmakeanargumentthatit'
sinageneralgoodofoursocietythatpeopledothat.Ifacompany--ifitsstocksellsforlessthanitsassetsareworth,thenthecompanymaybeshouldbebrokenupandtheassetstakenandgivensomewhereelsebecausethelowstockpriceindicatesaproblem.
Idon'
tknowhowtoevaluateeverythingIcahnhasdone,butsomecorporateraidershavebeenunkindtoemployees.Maybeit'
snotalwaystheraider;
it'
sthatsomeemployeeshadtrustedinanimplicitcontractthattheywereofferedbytheiremployer.Forexample,theemployermayhavesaidverbally--orsuggestedtoanemployee--thatifyoudowell,we'
llpromoteyouupandyouwillhavevariousadvantagesinthefuture.Thenanoutsideraidercomesinandjustfirestheemployee,sonaturallytheemployeefeelswronged.Thereareinstancesofthatsortofthing.Again,it'
slikeanyonewhodoesimportantthings,it'
shardtojudgethewholepictureandonthatIamsurehehascreatedvaluefortheeconomy.Someonesuggestedthatweshouldbringincorporateregulatorsaswell.IthinkmaybeinthenextyearI'
lldothattooffset--I'
mbringinginalotofverysuccessfulfinancepractitionersandIdon'
thaveanyregulatorsthisyear.
Also,oneofyouasked,whatliteraturedoyouread?
HementionedtheNicomacheanEthics,whichIhaveneverread--Idon'
tknowwhatthatis.HealsomentionedapoembyRudyardKiplingcalledIf.Ididn'
trecognizewhathewasreferringtoimmediately,butIlookeditupandit'
safamouspoemthatyoumusthaveseen--writtenin1910--aninspirationalpoem.IputitupontheClassesV2,notaspartofthereadinglist,butit'
sunderResources,soyoucanreadKipling.Maybehethoughtofthatbecauseit'
sreallyapoem--seemstobeapoemofadviceforyoungpeoplebecauseitendsup--thelastlineis--doyouknowthelastline?
Cansomeonereciteit?
What'
sthelastline?
"
Ifyoufollowtheseinstructions,youwillbeamanmyson."
So,that'
sthemodeofthoughthemayhavebeeninwhenhetalked.
Anyway,wehaveoursecondmid-termexamonMondayanditwillbelikethefirstmid-term,butitwillbelessmathematical.Thispartofthecoursehadlesstechnicalapparatusthanthefirstpartofthecourse,soitwillconcentrateonthemiddlethirdofthecourse,uptothislecture.YouhavetoreadFabozzi,etal.againcarefullybecauseI'
mfreetotakeanythingfromKeyTermsandKeyConceptsfromthechaptersthatwereassignedforthispartofthecourse.Ofcourse,everyreadingthatisonline--Idon'
texpectyoutogotothelibrary--issomethingImightaskabout.Aprileleventh,wehaveStephenSchwarzmancomingandI'
mlookingforwardtothat.ThatwillagainbeaFriday,butitwillbeatnineo'
clockandhewillbehere,soIthinkthatwillbealotoffunalso.
Iwanttothenstarttoday'
stalk–lecture--whichisaboutmonetarypolicyandit'
sreallyaproposrightnow.WearelivinginveryunusualtimesandIamsurethatBenBernankeandothercentralbankpresidentsarelosingsleeprightnowbecausethisisatimetochallengemonetarypolicymakers.Thethingthatreallyemergedjustinthelastweekorsoisthat--ofcourse,monetarypolicyisaboutsettingofinterestrates.Inthelastweek,theTreasurybillrateontheUnitedStatesfour-weekTreasurybill,whichisthestandard,essentially--three-month--itfellto0.2%.Thisisshocking.Whatishappeningnow?
Interestrateshavehitzero--0.2%;
that'
stwentybasispointsabovezero.PeoplehavelongthoughtthatthesekindsofthingshappenonlyinJapan,butthat'
snottrueatall;
shappeningrightnowintheU.S.
There'
sbeenatotalcrashinTreasurybillrates,soit'
snotgoingto--onethingweknowisthatthiscrashisover.TheTreasurybill--thethree-monthTreasurybillratehascrashed--it'
svirtuallyzero--andthestoryisoverbecauseitcan'
tgoanylower.Well,itcouldgotwentybasispointslower,butinterestratescanneverbenegative.So,that'
sit;
sover;
we'
vejusthitzero.Thisisthethingthatworriescentralbankers.Wheninterestrateshitzero,thentheydon'
thave--it'
salittlebitlikeyoursteeringsystemonyourcarfreezinguporhittinga--you'
rehydroplaningonthehighway;
yoursteeringwheeldoesn'
tworkanymore.Onceinterestrateshitzero,youcan'
tcutthemanymoreandthat'
swhattheFedwantstodo.I'
mtalkingaboutfour-weekTreasurybills;
theFederalFundsRateisstillat2¼
%,butatleastthemoreprominentthree-monthT-billrateisattheend.
WhatIwanttodoistalkaboutwhattheFedinthiscountryisdoingandwhatothercentralbanksaredoing.Iwanttostartbyputtingitinhistoricalperspective.Ifyou'
llallowme,Iwilltalkfirstaboutjustwhatisacentralbank,suchastheFederalReserve,andwhatdotheydo.Iwanttofirstjustgoback--thestoryItoldyouinarecentlecturewasthestoryofagoldsmithbanker.Thisishowitstarted.Therewerepeople--goldsmithswerepeoplewhoworkedinthemetalgoldandmadebeautifulthingsforpeople--jewelryandotherthings.Theyhadsafesintheirshopandsomepeoplewouldsaytothegoldsmith,Ihavesomevaluables.Idon'
thaveasafe--canIputitinyoursafe?
Thegoldsmithwouldsay,okay.Thenhe'
dwriteonalittlenoteandhandittotheguyandsay,justkeepthisnote.Ifitwasabearernote--ifthenotesaid,I'
llpay--ifitwasn'
tauniqueobjectbutjustgold,thenotewouldsaythatthisgoldsmithwillpaytothebearersomanyouncesofgold.Andthat'
showbankinggotstarted.
Itemergedintoaninstitutioninwhichbankswouldhavenotes--banknotes--thatcirculatedwidelyandwebegantothinkofthemasmoney.Ifyouputyourgoldinthecareofagoldsmith,initiallyyoudon'
tthink--youthinkthemoneyisthere.Buteventually,youhavethisbearernotethatyoustartpassingaroundtospendtootherpeopleandtheystarttothinkofthemasmoneyandthat'
stheoriginofbanking.Ifyouasksomeoneacouplehundredyearsago,what'
stheessenceofabank?
Theywouldsay,ohtheyprintpapermoney--privatebanksprintpapermoney,notjustgovernmentbanks.Well,thereweren'
tgovernmentbanks;
originally,theywereallprivate.
Thereisaninstitutioncalledthe"
goldstandard"
--nowtotallyandcompletelygoneeverywhereintheworld.Whatitwas--itbegan--thefirstcountrytoadoptthegoldstandardofficiallywastheUnitedKingdomandthatwasin1717.WhatitmeantwasthatthegovernmentoftheU.K.committedthattheirpapermoneywouldalwaysandatalltimesberedeemableingold.ItwasgraduallyadoptedbyothercountriesthroughtimeandtheUnitedStatesdidn'
tofficiallyadoptituntil1900.Letmejustgobacktothewaythethingworked.Itusedtobethatitwas–actually,thegoldstandardkindofcameinbyaccidentinEngland,originally;
thatwasinthe1600s.Theprominentcoinwascalledtheshillinganditwasasilvercoin.TheBritishpoundwastwentyshillings,soeffectively,thepoundwasonasilverstandard.Thentheystartedmintingnewcoinsoutofgoldandthegovernmentwasissuingcoins--theycalledthemguineas.Theystartedoutasa--theyjustmintedtheamountinonecoin,whichtheythoughtwasequivalenttotwentyshillings.So,theyhadaguinea,whichtheysaidwastwentyshillings,andthenthereweretwocoins--eithershillingsorguineas--thatwasthemoneyatthetime.
Then,theproblemwasthattheprice--relativepriceofthosetwo--wasnotreallyfixedbythegovernment.So,itstartedtodriftandpeoplestartedtothink,Ithinkaguineaisworthmorethantwentyshillingsandthemarketpricedrifteduptotwenty-oneshillings.So,thegovernmentwasupset--oftheU.K.Wewantedthistobeatwentyshillingcoin,butnowinthemarketit'
stradingattwenty-one.Thentheyimplementedarulethattheguineaisworthtwenty-oneshillings.Then,therelativepriceofgoldversussilvershiftedtothepointthatthegoldwith--atthetwenty-oneshillingexchangerate,thegoldshillingwasworthless--thegoldguineawasworthlessthantwenty-oneshilling.So,alltheshillingsdisappearedandtheonlycoinleftwasthe
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