英文文献翻译1文档格式.docx
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英文文献翻译1文档格式.docx
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JohnWhalley
TheUniversityofWesternOntario
1.INTRODUCTION
a.Background
Thispaperassessesthepresentstateofquantitativeliteraturewhichseekstoevaluatethepotentialimpactswhichwouldfollowfromglobalservicestradeliberalisationasitrelatestodevelopingcountries.Itisimportanttoemphasizethatwhatarefrequentlyreferredtoasdevelopingcountriesarethemselvesalsoaheterogeneousgroupofcountries.TheyspanrapidlygrowingeconomiesinAsia,negativegrowtheconomies(inGDP/capita)inAfrica,middleincomeandverypoorcountries,smallandlarge,landlockedandoceanaccess;
heavilyregulatedandrecentlyliberalised.Ipreferthetermpoorercountries,andusethisinterchangeablywiththetermdevelopingcountriesinthetext.Muchoftheliteratureatissueisrelativelyrecent,andisscatteredinworkingpapersandotherlessaccessiblesources.Policymakersclearlyneedhelpinunravelingthisattimesconfusingandfragmentarypictureofwhattheresearchcommunityhastooffertoguidetheirdeliberations.Thispaperaimstodothisratherthantoadvocateparticularpolicypositionsonglobalservicesliberalisation.
b.NatureofServices
ThepaperbeginsbycharacterizingservicesasamajorityofactivityformostOECDeconomies(asmeasuredbyemployment,andbyvalueaddedoriginating),andasmallerbutstilllargeportionofactivityforpoorerdevelopingcountries.Itsuggeststhatso-called‘core’servicescanbestbethoughtof(seeMelvin,1989)asrelatingtointermediationthroughtime(banking,insurance)orspace(telecoms,transportation,retailing,wholesaling),withawiderangeofdiverseadditionalserviceitemsmakingupthebalanceofwhatmostpeoplerefertoasservices(tourism,consultingservices,governmentservices,utilities).Thisdiverserangeofactivitiesistypicallytreatedinquantitativestudiesasasinglehomogeneousentity,frequentlylabeledasservicesforanalyticalconvenience,wheninfactitsheterogeneitysuggestsadifferenttreatmentforeach.Thisheterogeneityis,inmyview,keytobetterunderstandinghowservicestradeliberalisationcouldaffectpoorercountries.
c.ImpactsofLiberalisationonPoorerCountries
Thereisageneralpresumptioninthepoorercountriesthattheywilllosefromglobalservicestradeliberalisationsincetheirdomesticserviceindustriesareinefficientandnon-competitive.Thisviewisdespitetheargumentsfromeconomistsastothegainstodomesticconsumersfromlowerpricesandthejointbenefitswhichaccruetobothexportingandimportingcountriesfromexploitingcomparativeadvantageandimprovedmarketaccessopportunitiesabroad.Itisalsodespitethecommonlyheldviewthattheproductionofmanyservicesarelaborintensive,whicheconomistsbelieveshouldbethesourceofcomparativeadvantageforpoorerdevelopingcountriesinservicesprovision.ThereunfortunatelyappeartobefewifanystudiesoftherelativeinefficiencyoflocalversusForeignServiceprovidersindevelopingcountryservicemarketswhichallowthestrengthoftheseargumentstobeevaluatedonempiricalgrounds.
Thiscautiontowardsglobalservicestradeliberalisationinthedevelopingworldseemstoreflecttwoconcerns.Oneisthegeneralassumptioninthedevelopingworldthatanyfuturenegotiatedgloballiberalisationofservicestradewillbelargelyonesidedintheresultsitwillyield.TheirbeliefisthatifnewWTOmultilateral(orevenregional)servicesliberalisationisnegotiated,developedcountryserviceproviderswilllikelygainsignificantlyimprovedaccesstodevelopingcountryservicemarkets,buttheconverse(significantlyimprovedaccessfordevelopingcountryserviceproviderstodevelopedcountryservicemarkets)willlikelynothappen.Asymmetryinnegotiatingpowerisonereasoncitedforthispossibleoutcome.ThepresumptionisthatthepresentregulatorystructureformostservicemarketsegmentswillremaininplaceinOECDcountries,andfewsignificantimprovementsinaccesstodevelopedcountrymarketsfordevelopingcountryserviceproviderswilloccur.Thisoutcome,forinstance,isreflectedinrecentUSbilateralagreements,includingtheUS-Chileagreement.
Inreality,throughtheprocessofongoingregulatoryreformintheOECD,changesareinfactbeingmadeinmarketaccessarrangementsfordevelopingcountryserviceproviders,thoughthesearenotnecessarilyreflectedinscheduledcommitmentsinGATSintheWTO.AnotherimportantandneglecteddimensiontothisconclusionisSouth-Southtrade,andthepotentialthatdevelopingcountrieshavemuchtogainfromliberalisationofmarketsinotherdevelopingcountries.Thepointisthatintermsofmodel-based(orquantitative)evaluationsoftheimpactsofservicestradeliberalisation,weregenuinetwo-sidedliberalizationtotakeplacewiththeirlowwagerates,developingcountryproviderscouldwellbenefit.Thisisespeciallysoiftherearescaleeconomiesinserviceprovision(asinbanking,forinstance).Mostoftheavailablestudiesofwhatbenefitsmightflowfromservicesliberalisationassumetherewillbefullmultilateralopeningofservicemarkets,andresultsofstudiesmustbeinterpretedinlightofthispresumption.Ifone-sidedliberalisationistheexpectedoutcome,developingcountriesmaywellremainopposedtoliberalisationonthegroundsitisnon-reciprocaldespitetheresultsofstudies.
Thesecondcautionthatdevelopingcountriesexpressisthenatureandsizeoftheadjustmentsindomesticeconomieswhichservicesliberalisationmayimply.Onedimensionofadjustmentrelatestopotentialforeignmajorityownershipandcontrolofprovisioninkeyservicesectors,andtherelatedsecurityandculturalconcerns.Foreignentitieshavingaccesstoandcontroloverbankrecordsandfinancialinformationofdomesticresidents,forinstance,isseeninsomecountriesasunacceptable.Also,avibrantandvitaldomesticbroadcastorfilmindustrymaybeviewedasintegraltonationalculturalidentity.Addedtosuchconcernsisthepotentialsizeoflabourmarketadjustmentsifdomesticbanksaredisplacedbyforeignbanks,domesticbyforeignairlines,andotherlargechangesintheorganizationoflabour-intensivesectorswhichmightfollowafterliberalisation.
2.GENERALCONSIDERATIONSINEVALUATINGTHEIMPACTSOF
SERVICESTRADELIBERALISATIONONDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES
Priortoreviewingexistingliteraturerelevanttothedevelopingcountryinterestinglobalservicestradeliberalisation,itmaybehelpfultofirsthighlightanumberofwiderconceptualissuesrelevanttothediscussion.
a.TheDevelopingCountryInterestinTradeLiberalisationinGeneral
Thepresumptionbehindmostdiscussionofpotentialdevelopingcountryinterestsinservicestradeliberalisationisthatcountriesgainfrommoreopenservicestradeinwayswhicharesimilartotradeliberalisationingoods.Thisreflectstheideathatcountrieshavedifferingcomparativeadvantageintheproductionofbothgoodsandservices,andmoreopentradewillallowcomparativeadvantagetobemorefullyexploitedinallcountries.Putsimply,thethinkingisthatpropositionsregardingthegainsfromfreertradeapplyequallytobothgoodsandservices.Thereare,however,manycomplicationswiththislineofargumenteventhoughitisinstinctivelywheremostacademiceconomistsfinishupintheirthinking.
First,acceptingfornowthepropositionthattradeinservicesandgoodscanbetreatedasanalyticallysimilarinthisway,theissueofhowdevelopingcountriesbenefitfromservicestradeliberalisationissubjecttoallofthenuancessetoutintheliteratureontradepolicy.Whilemostacademiceconomistsinstinctivelybelievethattherearebenefitsforallcountriesfromfreertrade,overtheyearstheyhaveneverthelessdevotedaconsiderableportionoftheirintellectualenergytoproducingargumentsastowhythecontrarymaybetrue.Theseincludeargumentsforanoptimaltariff(termsoftradeimprovementfromprotection),forinfantindustryprotection,fortariffswhichtransferrents(rentshifting),andtariffsthatoffsetotherdomesticdistortions.Theseargumentspresumablyapplyequallytotradeinservicesandgoodsiftheyareanalyticallysimilar,andhencequalifythepresumptionthatfreerglobaltradeinserviceisagoodthing.
Second,thereareaseriesofargumentsaboutprotectionoftradeingoodsthatrelateinonewayoranotherprimarilytodevelopingcountriesandthesepresumablyalsocomeintoplayindiscussingtradeinservices.Examplesarethatincreasedtradecanbeimmiserisingduetoatermsoftradedeterioration;
inaLewismodelwithtraditionalpracticesinagriculturalsectors(averageratherthanmarginalproductpricingoflabour)protectionoftradedgoodssectorsiscalledfortopulllabourintoimport-competingmodernsectors;
inaHarris-Todaromodelwithanurbansectorspecificdownwardrigidrealwageandunemployment,animportsubsidycanbebeneficial.
Inadditiontherearemanybroaderissuesidentifiedintheliteratureabouttheformglobaltradeliberalisationtakesandhenceitsimpactsondevelopingcountries,andthesewouldagainapplyequallytoservicesandgoods.If,asisusuallyargued,countriesgainmorefromimprovedaccesstolargerforeignmarkets(giventhelargersizeofOECDmarkets)thanfromtheirownliberalisation,whattheyshouldseekisgenuinelymultilateralliberalisationratherthanonlyparticipateinunilateralliberalisation.ThisshouldincludefreerSouth-Southtradeinservices,aswellasOECD/non-OECDtrade.Beingsmallereconomically,developingcountrieshavelessbargainingpowerthanlargerdevelop
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