The changes and challenges for economy inWord文件下载.docx
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spowertransitioninNovember.AttheCentralEconomicWorkConferencelastweek,policymakersdecidedtomuster"
greatercourageandwisdom"
totakethenation'
sreformanddevelopmentforward.
Society'
sinitialresponsetotherenewedcommitmenttoreformwasclear.TheShanghaistockmarketsawitsstrongestrallyintwoyears.ButhowdoeconomistsassessChina'
sopportunitiesin2013afterstudyingtheCentralEconomicWorkConferencecommunique?
Whatchangesaretheylookingforwardto?
AndwhatdangersdotheythinkChinashouldwatchoutfor?
Weinvitedfiveofthemtosharetheirviews.
Theeconomyslowedfortwomainreasons:
Theglobaleconomywasweak,andthishitChineseexports.Theotherreasonwasduetoproperty-tighteningmeasuresandcreditcontrolswhichledtoaslowdowninpropertyandinfrastructureinvestmentstartinginlate2011.Thegovernmentchangeditspolicydirectioninthespring,easingcreditconditionsandreversinginfrastructurespending,whichhasledtoamoderaterecoveryinrecentmonths.
Corporationsreducedtheirinventoriesthroughoutmuchof2012,andexcesscapacitybecameaconcernasdemandweakened.Corporateprofitsdroppedsharply.Butthereislessofapushnowtoreduceinventories,andindustrialprofitsareincreasingagaininthefourthquarter.
Thenewleadershiphassetthetonefornextyear:
Theywillcontinueproactivefiscalandprudentmonetarypolicies.Thenewleadershipisconcentratingonurbanizationbeingthebigdriverofdomesticdemand,whichshouldattractmoreinvestmentonpublicinfrastructure.Butit'
sunclearhowtheywillstimulateconsumption.
Weexpecttheleadershiptopushforwardin2013withmeasuresthathavealreadywonwidesupport.Thesemayincludereformstoenergypricesandresourcetaxes,aswellasdevelopingthebondmarketandexpandingpensionandhealthinsurance.Ithinkvariousservices,particularlyhealthcareandpublicservices,shouldbedevelopedmorerapidly.
WeexpectGDPgrowthtorecoverfrom7.6percentthisyearto8percentin2013.I'
mnotsurehowmuchchangewewillseetothecountry'
sgrowthmodel.Thatwillonlyhappenslowly.Wethinkconsumerpriceindexinflationwillrisein2013,mainlyasaresultofrisingfoodprices.WethinkCPIwillaverage3.5percent.Non-foodinflationmayrisebecauseofreformstoutilityandenergyprices.
Themostimportantreformshouldbeincreasingpublicspendingonservicessothatmigrantscanhavebetteraccesstoschoolsandhealthcare,andcanhavebetterhealthcareinsurance,pensionsandotherbenefitsassociatedwithasocialsafetynet.Thiswillinvolvetaxandpublicfinancereforms,andwillbedifficult.Ithinktrueurbanizationwillstimulateinvestmentaswellasconsumption.
WeexpecttheUSeconomytomaintainamodestgrowthrate(2.3percent),EuropetostagnateandJapantogrowverylittle.Emergingmarketsmayrecoversomewhatfrom2012astheirexportsbecomemorestableandtheynolongerhavetoworryaboutinflationwhensettingtheirmonetarypolicies.ForChina,thismeanstherateofincreaseforexportswillbecomestableatabout8percent.
Inthebestcase,theUSwillshowstronggrowthifitavoidsthefiscalcliff.Andthecrisisintheeurozonewillberesolved.Intheworstcase,theUSwillgooverthefiscalcliff,drivingdownthecountry'
sgrowth.Ortheeurozonecrisiswillworsen.
-----WangTao
chiefChinaeconomistwithUBSAG
Despitetheslowdown,China'
seconomicperformancethisyearisstillsatisfactory,giventheglobalrecessionandcomparedwithotheremergingmarkets.
Thecountry'
sfiscalandmonetarypoliciesthisyearwereappropriate,showingthegovernment'
sgoodassessmentoftheinternationalsituation.
sGDPgrowththisyear,Iestimate,maybeintherangeof7.5to7.8percent.Theeconomybottomedoutinthethirdquarterandstabilizedinthefourthquarter,butitisstillhardfortheeconomytoriseabove8percentfor2012.
Lookingforward,theglobaleconomystillneedsfivetosixyearstocompletelyshrugofftherecession.
Idon'
tthinkthenewleadershipwillrolloutalarge-scaleeconomicstimuluspackagenextyear.Infact,thereislittleroomforthemtomaneuverwithfiscalandmonetarypolicies,buttheycandomorewiththesocialwelfaresystembybuildingmorekindergartens,schoolsandhospitals.
Meanwhile,thegovernmenthasapprovedanumberofmasstransitrailprojectsthisyear,whichwillhelptoboostinvestmentinthecomingtwotothreeyears.
Theeconomyfor2013shouldimproveabit,withaGDPgrowthprobablyrangingaround7.5percentto8percent.
Consideringtheleadershiptransitionnextyear,steadydevelopmentshouldbeaprimaryconcernforthecentralgovernment.Theymayfirstpromotereforminsocialsecurityandincomedistribution.
IfGDPgrowthdoesnotexceed8percent,itisnotdifficulttokeeptheCPIbetween2to3percent,asChina'
sCPIpressureismainlydecidedbythecountry'
smonetarypolicy.
Consumptiongrowthnextyearwillbearound13to15percent,almostthesameasthisyear.
UrbanizationwillbethekeydriverforChina'
seconomicgrowthinthecomingdecade.Iwouldsuggestanurbanizationmodelcenteredonthesecond-andthird-tiercitiesinsteadofsuper-bigcities.Giventheimbalancesinsuchahugecountry,itcouldbeadown-upmodelinitiatedbyprovincialgovernmentsbasedontheirownexperiences.Theprocessmainlystimulatesreal-estate-relatedinvestment.
TheEuropeanUnionandJapanmaystillfaceasluggisheconomynextyear,whiletheUSeconomywillseeaslowexpansion.Deflation,insteadofinflation,isoneoftheirmajoreconomicconcerns.
Emergingeconomies,whichfaceverysimilarchallengestoChina,willseeaslowdownintheirGDPgrowth.
AllthatmeansChina'
simportsandexportsarenotlikelytoimprovemuchnextyear.
-----WangHaifeng
directorofinternationaleconomicsattheInstituteforInternationalEconomicResearch
BackinDecember2011,FitchsaiditexpectedChina'
seconomytogrowabout8percentin2012,anditlookslikethishasbeenborneout.Wetookseriouslytheauthorities'
statedintentiontogetassetandconsumerpriceinflationundercontrol,andthishasmoreorlessbeenachieved,withoutasharpincreaseinunemployment.
Thekeylimitationsareasfollows:
limitedprogresssofaronrebalancingtowardsamoreconsumption-ledgrowthmodel,andstillalackofclarityabouthowthebuildupofdebtin2009-10willbedealtwith.Thatdebtoverhang,asweseeit,isakeyfactorbehindtheNegativeOutlookonChina'
slocalcurrencyratingof"
AA-"
.Theforeigncurrency"
A+"
rating,meanwhile,remainswellsupportedatStableOutlookbyChina'
sexceptionallystrongforeigncurrencysovereignbalancesheetand$3.3trillioninofficialreserves.
Rebalancingtheeconomyisimperative,notoptional,ifafurtherbuildupofstructuralvulnerabilitiesistobeavoided.
InvestmentcannotgoongrowingfasterthanGDP,oritwillstarttooutstripevenChina'
shugedomesticsavings,andChinawouldbecomeacurrentaccountdeficitcountry,whichwethinktheauthoritieswouldwishtoavoid.Onekeyquestionishowquicklytheauthoritiesmakeprogressonstructuralreformstofacilitaterebalancing.Thesecouldinclude,butarenotlimitedto,financialliberalizationandstrengtheningofhouseholdincomes.
WethinkChina'
seconomywillgrowabout8percentin2013.TheCentralEconomicWorkConferenceconclusionsincludedlanguageonaccommodativefiscalpolicyandprudentmonetarypolicy,whichweseeasasignalauthoritieswanttopreventare-emergenceofinflationandstronghousepricegrowth.Weexpectconsumptiontogrowfasterthaninvestment.
China'
surbanizationrateofabout50percentonofficialdata-andprobablyalittlehigherinreality-isstillwellbelow80percentforSouthKoreaortheUS.
Thepointishowefficientlycapitalisinvested,alongwiththefundamentalmacroeconomicconstraintoftheinvestment-savingsbalance.Thereisanotherconstraintintermsoftheabilityofthefinancialsystemtogrowthecredittofundfurthersharprisesininvestment,whichwethinkisprettylimited,giventhebankingsystem'
sweakcapitalizationandemergingstrainsinliquidity.
ThemainriskfacingtheChineseandworldeconomyistheresolution,ornot,oftheUSfiscalcliff.Onourbasecaseforecasts,theUSdoesnotfalloffthecliff,buttherewillbeameaningfulfiscaltighteningofabout1.5percentofGDPin2013,andtheUSeconomygrowsabout2.3percent.ForJapan,weexpectgrowthof1.5percent.Fortheeurozone,weexpectstagnationin2013.Fitchforecastsemergingmarketswillgrow4.8percentin2013,upfrom4.3percentin2012.
-----AndrewColquhoun
headofAsia-PacificSovereignRatingswithFitchRatings
Theeconomicsituationin2012wasbeyondpreviousexpectations.Ma
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