应用统计软件论文Word格式文档下载.docx
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应用统计软件论文Word格式文档下载.docx
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2026.6
1671.7
53.0
1003.2
784.0
659.2
1993
2577.4
2110.8
50.3
1281.9
921.6
769.7
58.1
1994
3496.2
2851.3
50.0
1794.7
1221.0
1016.8
58.9
1995
4283.0
3537.6
50.1
2447.4
1577.7
1310.4
58.6
1996
4838.9
3919.5
48.8
3147.1
1926.1
1572.1
56.3
1997
5160.3
4185.6
46.6
3744.3
2090.1
1617.2
55.1
1998
5425.1
4331.6
44.7
4279.4
2162.0
1590.3
53.4
1999
5854.0
4615.9
42.1
4739.4
2210.3
1577.4
52.6
2000
6280.0
4998.0
39.4
5077.5
2253.4
1670.1
49.1
2001
6859.6
5309.0
38.2
5780.7
2366.4
1741.1
47.7
2002
7702.8
6029.9
37.7
6768.7
2475.6
1834.3
46.3
2003
8472.2
6510.9
37.1
8019.9
2622.2
1943.3
45.6
2004
9421.6
7182.1
9196.6
2936.4
2184.7
47.2
2005
10493.0
7942.9
36.7
10792.0
3254.9
2555.4
45.5
2006
11759.5
8696.6
35.8
12297.4
3587.0
2829.0
43.0
2007
13785.8
9997.5
36.3
13051.0
4140.4
3223.9
43.1
2008
15780.8
11242.9
37.9
16406.8
4760.6
3660.7
43.7
由表1中数据做回归分析,结果如下:
1.对城镇居民的可支配收入(yc1),生活消费支出(yc2),人均储蓄存款余额(yc3)做一元回归分析,结果如下:
chengzhen<
-data.frame(
year=c(1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008),
yc1=c(1510.2,1700.6,2026.6,2577.4,3496.2,4283.0,4838.9,5160.3,5425.1,5854.0,6280.0,6859.6,7702.8,8472.2,9421.6,10493.0,11759.5,13785.8,15780.8),
yc2=c(1278.9,1453.8,1671.7,2110.8,2851.3,3537.6,3919.5,4185.6,4331.6,4615.9,4998.0,5309.0,6029.9,6510.9,7182.1,7942.9,8696.6,9997.5,11242.9),
yc3=c(622.9,798.3,1003.2,1281.9,1794.7,2447.4,3147.1,3744.3,4279.4,4739.4,5077.5,5780.7,6768.7,8019.9,9196.6,10792.0,12297.4,13051.0,16406.8)
);
chengzhen
1)生活消费支出(yc2)与人均储蓄存款余额(yc3)
>
y=yc2;
lm.sol<
-lm(y~1+yc3)
summary(lm.sol)
Call:
lm(formula=y~1+yc3)
Residuals:
Min1QMedian3QMax
-653.3-321.9150.1321.3483.1
Coefficients:
EstimateStd.ErrortvaluePr(>
|t|)
(Intercept)1548.9712144.174910.745.36e-09***
yc30.61520.019531.55<
2e-16***
---
Signif.codes:
0‘***’0.001‘**’0.01‘*’0.05‘.’0.1‘’1
Residualstandarderror:
383.8on17degreesoffreedom
MultipleR-squared:
0.9832,AdjustedR-squared:
0.9822
F-statistic:
995.3on1and17DF,p-value:
<
2.2e-16
2)生活消费支出(yc2)与可支配收入(yc1)
-lm(y~1+yc1)
lm(formula=y~1+yc1)
-302.1-136.065.9117.1177.1
(Intercept)4.249e+026.709e+016.3347.49e-06***
yc17.047e-018.608e-0381.857<
149on17degreesoffreedom
0.9975,AdjustedR-squared:
0.9973
6701on1and17DF,p-value:
3)人均储蓄存款(yc3)与可支配收入(yc1)
y=yc3
-812.0-328.3-126.1364.6726.5
(Intercept)-1.731e+032.221e+02-7.7975.17e-07***
yc11.131e+002.849e-0239.701<
493.1on17degreesoffreedom
0.9893,AdjustedR-squared:
0.9887
1576on1and17DF,p-value:
4)生活消费支出(yc2)与可支配收入(yc1)、人均储蓄存款余额(yc3)
-lm(y~1+yc1+yc3)
lm(formula=y~1+yc1+yc3)
-271.66-112.5824.16101.31193.31
(Intercept)241.34890138.520961.7420.101
yc10.824600.0804410.2521.94e-08***
yc3-0.106030.07073-1.4990.153
143.8on16degreesoffreedom
0.9978,AdjustedR-squared:
0.9975
3597on2and16DF,p-value:
对yc2与yc3及yc2与yc1做线性拟合,结果如下:
attach(chengzhen)
plot(yc2~yc3);
abline(lm(yc2~yc3))
plot(yc2~yc1);
abline(lm(yc2~yc1))
由上述回归分析可知城镇居民的可支配收入(yc1),生活消费支出(yc2),人均储蓄存款余额(yc3)两两之间都显著,但由(4)可看出yc2和yc1显著,常数项和yc3均不显著。
但是由线性拟合的图可以看出拟合效果还好,所以可能是数据的统计或截取的年份较少所导致的不显著。
2.对农村居民的纯收入(yn1),人均消费支出(yn2),人均储蓄存款余额(yn3)做一元回归分析,结果如下:
建立数据框
nongcun<
yn1=c(686.3,708.6,784.0,921.6,1221.0,1577.7,1926.1,2090.1,2162.0,2210.3,2253.4,2366.4,2475.6,2622.2,2936.4,3254.9,3587.0,4140.4,4760.6),
yn2=c(584.6,619.8,659.2,769.7,1016.8,1310.4,1572.1,1617.2,1590.3,1577.4,1670.1,1741.1,1834.3,1943.3,2184.7,2555.4,2829.0,3223.9,3660.7),
yn3=c(622.9,798.3,1003.2,1281.9,1794.7,2447.4,3147.1,3744.3,4279.4,4739.4,5077.5,5780.7,6768.7,8019.9,9196.6,10792.0,12297.4,13051.0,16406.8)
nongcun
1)人均消费支出(yn2)与人均储蓄存款余额(yn3)
y=yn2;
-lm(y~1+yn3)
lm(formula=y~1+yn3)
-191.31-144.66-7.63111.11333.63
(Intercept)661.758863.587110.418.60e-09***
yn30.18330.008621.311.06e-13***
169.3on17degreesoffreedom
0.9639,AdjustedR-squared:
0.9618
454on1and17DF,p-value:
1.06e-13
2)人均消费支出(yn2)与居民纯收入(yn1)
-lm(y~1+yn1)
lm(formula=y~1+yn1)
-130.09-71.1823.7057.8386.80
(Intercept)46.2534436.767171.2580.225
yn10.751590.0146551.293<
2e-16***
71.38on17degreesoffreedom
0.9936,AdjustedR-squared:
0.9932
2631on1and17DF,p-value:
由结果可以看出,常数项不显著,yn2与yn1之间显著。
3)人均储蓄存款(yn3)与居民纯收入(yn1)
y=yn3;
-1491.289-781.8566.387808.6251133.527
(Intercept)-3041.9876484.7854-6.2758.38e-06***
yn13.96040.193220.4992.00e-13***
941.2on17degreesoffreedom
0.9611,AdjustedR-squared:
0.9588
420.2on1and17DF,p-value:
2.000e-13
4)人均消费支出(yn2)与居民纯收入(yn1)、人均储蓄存款余额(yn3)
lm.sol.1<
-lm(y~yn1+yn3,data=nongcun)
summary(lm.sol.1)
lm(formula=y~yn1+yn3,data=nongcun)
-108.73-62.6415.9847.46109.82
(Intercept)113.0718266.056901.7120.106
yn10.664600.073319.0651.06e-07***
yn30.021970.018151.2100.244
70.43on16degreesoffreedom
0.9941,AdjustedR-squared:
0.9934
1352on2and16DF,p-value:
由上述的回归分析可知,农村居民的纯收入(yn1),人均消费支出(yn2),人均储蓄存款余额(yn3)两两之间均显著,但由(4)中可看出yn2与yn1之间显著,yn2与yn3不显著,常数项也不显著。
数据回归拟合直线和散点图如下:
图中有部分数据异常,修改数据,删除第6,7,8这3个数据,继续进行回归分析.
nongcun1<
year=c(1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008),
ynx1=c(686.3,708.6,784.0,921.6,1221.0,2162.0,2210.3,2253.4,2366.4,2475.6,2622.2,2936.4,3254.9,3587.0,4140.4,4760.6),
ynx2=c(584.6,619.8,659.2,769.7,1016.8,1590.3,1577.4,1670.1,1741.1,1834.3,1943.3,2184.7,2555.4,2829.0,3223.9,3660.7),
ynx3=c(622.9,798.3,1003.2,1281.9,1794.7,4279.4,4739.4,5077.5,5780.7,6768.7,8019.9,9196.6,10792.0,12297.4,13051.0,16406.8)
nongcun1
y=ynx2;
-lm(y~ynx1+ynx3,data=nongcun)
lm(formula=y~ynx1+ynx3,data=nongcun)
-92.579-33.4214.77923.88793.264
(Intercept)184.4909557.482353.2100.00684**
ynx10.525880.072397.2656.32e-06***
ynx30.058910.018343.2130.00680**
55.75on13degreesoffreedom
0.9969,AdjustedR-squared:
0.9965
2124on2and13DF,p-value:
由上述分析结果知:
删除部分异常数据后,所得的回归方程中的常数项和ynx3均变得显著,且R²
。
所得回归方程为:
y^=184.491+0.526*ynx1+0.0589*ynx3
将新的数据nongcun1中的ynx2与ynx1,ynx2与ynx3做线性拟合,结果如下。
attach(nongcun1)
plot(ynx2~ynx1);
abline(lm(ynx2~ynx1))
plot(ynx2~ynx3);
abline(lm(ynx2~ynx3))
下面以2009年东部地区、中部地区和西部地区的部分代表省市为研究对象来说明东、中、西部的可支配收入、储蓄存款、生活消费支出等方面的发展差异。
东部地区以北京、天津、河北、广东、海南、上海、江苏、浙江、福建等9个地区为代表,中部以山西、内蒙古、河南、湖北、湖南、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西等9个地区为代表,西部以四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等9个地区为代表。
2009年
地区
储蓄存款
(亿元)
东
部
1
北京
26738.48
14672.1
8847.81
2
天津
21402.01
4885.9
4192.60
3
河北
14718.25
13551.1
3067.89
4
广东
21574.72
31411.4
4441.43
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