低碳经济外文文献1Word文件下载.docx
- 文档编号:16187231
- 上传时间:2022-11-21
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:19
- 大小:37.52KB
低碳经济外文文献1Word文件下载.docx
《低碳经济外文文献1Word文件下载.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《低碳经济外文文献1Word文件下载.docx(19页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
ClimatePolicy
卷:
13;
期:
3;
页:
345-362;
页数:
18;
出版年份:
2013
出版地:
London
ISSN:
14693062
Apractitioner'
Fankhauser,Samuel
Abstract
DrawingprimarilyontheUKexperience,fivepracticallessonsareidentifiedforpolicymakerswhoseektodecarbonizetheireconomies.First,decarbonizationneedsasolidlegalbasistogiveitcredibilityandovercometimeinconsistencyproblems.Second,puttingapriceoncarbonisessential,butlow-carbonpoliciesalsohavetoaddresswidermarket,investment,andbehaviouralfailures.Thisinturnraisesissuesofpolicycomplexityandcoordination.Third,thelow-carboneconomyislikelytobehighlyelectrified.Cleanelectricitycouldbeacost-effectivewayofdecarbonizingmanypartsoftheeconomy,includingtransport,heating,andpartsofindustry.Decarbonizationthereforestartsinthepowersector.Fourth,thelow-carbontransitionisprimarilyarevolutionofproductionandnotconsumption.Bothsupply-sideinnovationanddemand-sideadjustmentsinlifestyleandbehaviourareneeded,thoughtheformershoulddominate.Fifth,thetransitiontoalow-carboneconomyiseconomicallyandtechnologicallyfeasible.Achievingitisaquestionofpolicycompetenceandhavingthepoliticalwilltodriveeconomicandsocialchange.
Keywords:
climatechangepolicy;
decarbonization;
greengrowth;
low-carbontransition;
mitigation;
UK
1.Introduction
Moreandmorecountriesaretakingactionagainstclimatechange.NearlyallmajorGHGemitters,includingmanyemergingmarkets,nowhaveclimatechangelegislationontheirstatutebooks(Town-shendetak,2011).Itisdebatablewhethertheseefforts-andanyinternationalagreementthatmightreinforcethem-willbesufficienttolimitclimatechangetoanacceptablelevel.However,givenwhatisatstake,andthecomplexityofthetaskathand,itisimportantthatpolicymakerslearnfromoneanotherandestablishacodeofgoodlow-carbonpractice.ThisarticleattemptstodistilthemainlessonsfromtheUK.
TheclimatechangedebateintheUKisfairlyadvanced,withastronglegalbasisforclimateaction,ambitioustargets,andsophisticatedinstitutionalarrangements(Fankhauser,Kennedy,&
Skea,2009).TheUKalsohasaconstantlyevolvingregulatorylandscape,withoccasionalpolicyfailuresandU-turns,whileawaningcommitmentamongpoliticiansandlatentclimatescepticisminpartsofthepressareputtingtheinstitutionalframeworkincreasinglytothetest.Assuch,theUKisagoodcasefromwhichtolearnlessons.1
Thereisarichanalyticalliteratureonmanyaspectsofclimatechangepolicy.Forexample,muchhasbeenwrittenabouttherelativemeritofdifferentpolicyoptions(Hepburn,2006;
Pizer,2002),thedesignofemissionstradingschemes(Fankhauser&
Hepburn,2010a,2010b;
Grü
ll&
Taschini,2011;
Murray,Newell,&
Pizer,2009),policyperformance(Ellerman&
Buchner,2008;
Ellerman,Convery,dePerthuis,&
Alberola,2010;
Martin,Preux,&
Wagner,2009),andlow-carboninnovation(Acemoglu,Aghion,Bursztyn,&
Heinous,2009;
Aghion,Boulanger,&
Cohen,2011;
Aghion,Dechezleprê
tre,Heinous,Martin,&
vanReenen,2011;
Dechezleprê
tre,Glachant,Hascic,Johnstone,&
Mé
niè
re,2011;
Popp,2002).
Thisarticlediffersfromtheexistingliteratureinthatittakesanexplicitlypracticalapproach.Whiledrawingontheanalyticalliterature,itlooksatthespecificcaseofacountrythatwantstoreduceitsGHGemissions,inthiscasetheUK.Thepolicyambitionismuchdeeperthanamarginalchangeinemissions,whichistheconcernofmuchoftheliterature.Itisacomprehensiveredesignofthemoderneconomy.Atthesametime,thescopeisnarrowerthanthatofthegreengrowthliterature,whichincludeswidernotionsofsustainabledevelopmentbesideslow-carbongrowth(Bowen&
Fan-khauser,2011).Alldecarbonizationeffortswillfaceatleastfourchallenges.First,astronglegalandinstitutionalbasisforlow-carbonpolicymustbeputinplace(Section2).Second,low-carbonobjectivesmustbetranslatedintoacredibleroadmapofsector,technology,andreformtargetsthatcanguidepolicyanddeterminewhethertheobjectivesareachievable(Section3).Third,thenecessarypoliciestoimplementtheroadmapmustbeputinplace(Section4).Fourth,thewidersocio-economicconse-quencesofdecarbonizationmustbemanaged(Section5).ItisconcludedinSection6thatthelow-carbontransitionisachievableifthesechallengesaremetandthereissufficientpolicycompetenceandpoliticalwill.
2.Providingthelegalandinstitutionalbasis
Thestartingpointforeconomy-widedecarbonizationisastronglegislativebasis.Thefundamentalreformstoenergy,transport,industrial,agricultural,andfiscalpolicythatwillfollowwillneedstatu-torylegitimacy.Theadoptionofaclimatechangelawisalsoawayofforgingthebroadpoliticalcon-sensusneededduringimplementation.Itisstrikinghowmanyoftheclimatechangelawsinmajoreconomieshavebeenbipartisanefforts(Townshendetak,2011).TheUKClimateChangeActof2008,forexample,waspassednear-unanimously.
Mostclimatechangelawsareunifyinglawsthatbringtogetherexistingstrandsofregulation(e.g.onenergyefficiency),expressalong-termobjective,andcreateaplatformforsubsequentaction.TheUKClimateChangeActcallsforacutinGHGemissionsofatleast80%,relativeto1990,by2050.Thisisbasedonanambitiontolimitmedianglobalwarmingto2°
Candkeeptheriskofextremeclimatechange(ofsay4°
C)toaminimum.TheActalsodefinesthemechanismthroughwhichthelong-termtargetistobemet:
aseriesofstatutory,5-yearcarbonbudgetsthatsetabindingceilingforGHGemissionsoverthatperiod.TheUKhasbeensubjecttothiseconomy-widecarbonconstraintsince2008.
Oneofthekeypurposesofthelegislationistomakeastatementofintentthatcansubsequentlyguidepolicydeliveryandreduceuncertaintyfordecisionmakers.Althoughactionisrequiredimmedi-ately,buildingalow-carboneconomywilltakedecades,amuchlongertermthanpolicymakerscancrediblycommit.Thiscreatesproblemsforbusinesses,whichwillmistrustthelong-termvalidityoftheplanandhedgetheirbehaviour.Animportantroleofclimatechangelegislationistoovercomesuchtimeinconsistencyproblemsandinstillong-termcredibilityintothepolicyeffort.
Theissueisakintothecredibilityofinflationtargets(Kydland&
Prescott,1977;
Barro&
Gordon,1983;
Rogoff,1985),andtheinstitutionalremediesthathavebeenproposedforbothproblemsbearsomeresemblancetooneanother.Anindependentinstitution,theCommitteeonClimateChange(CCC),wascreatedtorecommendandmonitorcarbonbudgets,inthebeliefthattechnocratsaremorelikelytotakealong-termviewthanpoliticians.However,thecarbonbudgetsareultimatelypassedbyParlia-menttogivethemstatutorycredibility.AjudicialreviewislikelyifthegovernmentsystematicallyignorestheCommittee'
sadviceorifkeypolicydecisionsareinconsistentwithcarbonobjectives.
3.Definingastrategyfordelivery
Forthehigh-levelobjectivesoftheclimatelawtobecredibletheyneedtobebackedupbyasoundimplementationstrategy.TheUK,EU,andmanyotherjurisdictionshavedevelopedconcretedecarbo-nizationroadmapsforthispurpose(CCC,2010;
DECC,2011;
EC,2011).Thesearenotblueprintsthatneedtobeimplementedtotheletter.Themarketsandprivateinitiativewilldeterminemostofthedetails.However,theyrepresentimportantstrategiesthatwilldetenninethespeedanddirectionoftravel.
Theseroadmapsareunderpinnedbyafairamountoftechnicalanalysis,whichensuresthatthestrat-egyistechnologicallyandeconomicallyrational,aswellasconsistentwiththeultimateemissionsobjective.Numericalsimulationmodelsarewellsuitedtothecalculationoftheleast-costwayofmeetingacertainemissionstargetundergiventechnologyconstraints.IntheUK,boththeCCCandtheDepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange(DECC)haveusedsuchmodelstoinformtheirlow-carbonroadmaps.ThemodelevidenceusedbytheCCC,inparticular,isquitedetailed.Evenso,modelresultsareheavilycomplementedandqualifiedbyprofessionaljudgement.
Least-costoptimizationmodels(e.g.MARKAL)areusedtodeterminethecorrectchoiceoftechnol-ogiesasafunctionoftheircostprofiles(CCC,2010),whicharethemselvesderivedfromdetailedengin-eeringstudies(e.g.MottMcDonald,2011).Least-costmodelsalsoinformtheallocationofscarceresourcesamongcompetinguses;
e.g.indeterminingwhetherthelimitedsupplyofsustainablebiomassshouldbeusedforelectricitygeneration,heating,ortransport(CCC,2011a).Detailedmodelsoftheelectricitymarketcansimulatehowthepowersectorwillcopewitharisingshareofinter-mittentrenewablesandinflexiblenuclearcapacity(Pö
yry,2011).Least-costmodelsprovideestimatesofthelikelyeconomiccosts,althoughthesebottom-upestimatesshouldbecomplementedwithgeneralequilibriumormacro-econometricmodelmns(Barkeretak,2007).
Akeyquestionthattheroadmapshouldanswerisaboutthespeedofdecarbonization:
'
Whatisthemosteconomicallyrationalrateofbringingemissionsdown?
'
Theanticipatedfallinthecostoflow-carbontechnologiesandtheeffectofdiscountingsuggeststhataslowstartwillbefollowedbysteepemissionsreductionslater.2However,progressinreducingtechnologycostsisafunctionofcumulativeinvestment,notjustthepassageoftime.Postponinglow-carboninvestmentmaythereforedelaythepointatwhichthes
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 经济 外文 文献