美赛一等奖论文_精品文档资料下载.pdf
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美赛一等奖论文_精品文档资料下载.pdf
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Team#40476Page1of19ForofficeuseonlyT1_T2_T3_T4_TeamControlNumber40476ProblemChosenDForofficeuseonlyF1_F2_F3_F4_Isitsustainable?
@#@Isitsustainable?
@#@AbAbstractstractThispaperaimstoanalyzetheproblemsofsustainabledevelopmentanddevelopamodalofsustainability.AsforTask1,wefirstlychoose8relevantfactorsconcerningthesustainability.Inordertomakethesefactorsquantified,weselect8representativedatatorepresentthefactors.Then,weworkouttheweightwofthese8factorsbasedonAPHtheory.Afterthat,weapplythemethodofClusteringAnalysistodividethe8statisticsof20countriesintothreeperiods.Meanwhile,wemustsetastandardforsustainablecountry,whichwecallitSustainabilityIndex(SI).Finally,werandomlychoose10countriesdatatoexamineourmodal.InordertosolveTask2,weselectDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoastheresearchobject.BasingontheModalofSI,thepresentSIofCongois0.84,whichmeansitsintheunsustainableperiod.Then,wedoathoroughresearchonCongoandfindoutthattheproblemsTherefore,wemakeupa20-year-planforCongobasedonourresearchandmodalinTask1tohelpitimproveitsustainability.AimingattheTask3,wefindoutthe8relevantstatisticsofCongossustainabledevelopment(2003-2012).Then,basedonthemethodofReducingDimensionsandFactorAnalysis,weuseSPSStodotheanalysisoflinearregressionontheconnectionsbetweentheeightrelevantstatisticsandthesustainability.Afterthat,wepredictthattheSIofCongoin2035shouldbe1.1,whichmeansitbasicallymovestowardsustainableperiod.Butittakesmuchlongerwithouttheplanwemake.Thesustainableplanscanimprovetheirsustainabilityinahigherspeed.Finally,wedeveloptheModelofGreyRelationtohelpICMfindtheoptimalpolicies.TheGreyRelationIndexesof8factorsare:
@#@(0.7776,0.7876,0.8681,0.8381,0.8631,0.7512,0.9604,0.9348)TR,Therefore,thepoliciesconcerningsocietystabilityandeconomymakethemaximumbenefits.Finally,weevaluatethemodelsinourpaper,anddiscussitstrengthsandweaknesses.KeyKeywordwordss:
@#@SustainabilityAHPClusteringAnalysisSustainabilityIndexGreyPredictionTeam#40476Page2of19IntroductionNowadays,everycountriestriesallmeanstoincreasetheirGDPwhileabusingnaturalresourcesandpayingnoattentiontoenvironmentprotecting,whichhaveacontinuouslybadinfluenceonnextgenerationsandfurtherdevelopment.Inordertochangetheseirrationaldevelopingpatternsandbenefitsournextgenerations.TheUNputforwardtheconceptionofSustainableDevelopmentin1987.Butherecomesaquestionthathowcanwemeasurewhetheracountrysdevelopmentpatternissustainableornot?
@#@Howcanthisdevelopmentpatternhelpthegovernmenttomakerationalpolicies?
@#@Meanwhile,weneedtopredicateeveryconsequenceafterputtingapolicyintopracticeandevaluatewhetherithelpsthiscountrymovetowardsamoresustainablefuture.Therefore,theproblemsneededtobesolvedinourmodelareclearthat:
@#@Developamodelforthesustainabilityofacountry.Thismodeloffersanassessmentmeasuretoevaluateeverycountryssustainability.AnditcanalsogivetheInternationalConglomerateofMoney(ICM)usefulinformationandsuggestionsfortheirinvestments.Makea20-yearplanofsustainabledevelopmentforaleastdevelopedcountry(LDC)basedonourmodalsandresearch.Useourmodalstoevaluatetheeffectsthe20-yearsustainabilityplanhasonacountryssustainabilityandchoosethemostbeneficialpoliciesorplans.Explainourmodalsandplansandanalyzeitsstrengthsandweaknesses.AssumptionsThedatawechooseinTask1canrepresentacountryssustainabilityandotherfactorsareneglected.Wars,governmentchanginganddevastatingnaturaldisasterswillnotoccurduringthe20years.The20countriesthatwechooseinTask1arerepresentativeenoughtoreflectthedevelopinglevelallovertheworld.Allthedatawefindarereliableandauthentic.SolutionTeam#40476Page3of1911.TheModalofSustainabilityIndexTheModalofSustainabilityIndex(SI)(SI)Wehave5stepstodevelopthismodel:
@#@StepStep11Choose4keyfactorswhicharemostrelatedtoacountryssustainability-Environment,Economy,PersonalHealthandSocietystability.StepStep22Dividethemintoeightrepresentativeaspects-life,foodsecurity,accesstocleanwater,localenvironmentalquality,energyefficiency,education,economy,societystability.Consideringthattheseeightaspectsareabstractandunclear,weintroduceeightmeasurablenationalstatisticstorepresentthemandquantifyeverycountryssustainability.Ithelpsusdevelopthemodelandmakethisproblemmeasurable.Step3Step3Whendefiningacountryssustainabledevelopmentlevel,weapplyAnalyticHierarchyProcess(AHP)andgiveeveryinfluentialfactoracertainweightbasedontheUNscalestandards.SSteptep44Select20representativecountries8
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