中级宏观经济学讲义8优质PPT.ppt

中级宏观经济学讲义8优质PPT.ppt

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IntermediateMacroeconomics8Realv.s.NominalI-RateTheFisherequationTheFisherequation1percentagepointI1percentagepointThisone-for-onerelationbetweentheinflationrateandnominali-rateiscalledtheFishereffect.NominalInterestRatenThequantitytheory+theFisherequationtherateofmoneysupplyintherateofinflationinthenominalinterestrate（KeynesianChain?

@#@）NominalInterestRateExAntev.s.ExPostIshighinflationratealwaysaccompaniedbyhighi-rate?

@#@贷款贷款存款存款CPICPI（当年）（当年）贷款贷款存款存款CPICPI（当年）（当年）91.04.2191.04.218.648.647.567.563.43.4200020000.40.492926.46.4200120010.70.793.05.1593.05.159.369.369.189.1814.714.702.02.2102.02.215.315.311.981.98-0.8-0.893.07.1193.07.1110.9810.9810.9810.98200320031.21.2949424.124.104.10.2904.10.295.585.582.252.253.93.995.01.0195.01.0110.9810.9817.117.1200520051.81.895.07.0195.07.0112.0612.0606.04.2806.04.285.855.852.82.896.05.0196.05.0110.9810.989.189.188.38.306.08.1906.08.196.126.122.522.5296.08.2396.08.2310.0810.087.477.4707.03.1807.03.186.396.392.792.79二月同比二月同比2.72.797.10.2397.10.238.648.645.675.672.82.807.05.1907.05.196.576.573.063.0698.03.2598.03.257.927.925.225.22-0.8-0.807.07.2107.07.216.846.843.333.33二季度同比二季度同比4.44.498.07.0198.07.016.936.934.774.7707.08.2207.08.227.027.023.63.698.12.0798.12.076.396.393.783.7807.09.1507.09.157.297.293.423.42八月同比八月同比6.56.599.06.1099.06.105.855.852.252.25-1.4-1.4一年期存贷款基准利率一年期存贷款基准利率&@#@CPI变动变动（%）ExAntev.s.ExPostreali-rate朋友向你借1000元，商量好一年后本息合计1100元。

@#@那么你的实际收益率（本次借贷的实际利率）为多少？

@#@现在通胀率为3%，事前r（exanterealinterestrate）=7%此一年通胀率为8%，事后r（expostrealinterestrate）=2%ExAntev.s.ExPostreali-rate名义利率更多取决于预期通胀率而非现实通胀率只是通胀一般有持续性，所以高通胀常伴随高利率未预期的通胀不一定伴随高利率TheDemandforMoneynThecostofholdingmoneyInflationnInflation:

@#@TheoverallincreaseinpricesnHyperinflation:

@#@extraordinaryhighinflation（inflationrate=50%/month）Inflationn2007新年伊始，老板宣布给所有员工加薪5%。

@#@全公司欢声雷动。

@#@n截止8月居民消费者价格指数同比上升6.5%。

@#@感叹evilinflation夺走了你新增的收入。

@#@n今年年底，老板决定再次给员工加薪5%，你会作何反应？

@#@TheSocialCostsofInflationnnUnexpectedinflation1.Redistributewealthamongindividuals2.Hurtindividualsonfixedpensions3.Psychologicalcosts（mostpeoplearerisk-averse）TheSocialCostsofInflationnnExpectedinflation1.Shoe-leathercost2.Menucost3.Possiblelowerrelativeprice4.Taxliability5.ConfusioninvaluemeasuringHowToStopaHyperinflationnIfthequantitytheoryweretrueidoesnotaffectmoneydemandstabilizemoneysupple=stabilizePHowToStopaHyperinflationnHowever,sincetheFishereffectholdsStabilizemoneysupply（growthrateofMS=0）ExpectedinflationrateMoneydemandMoneysupplyisfixedThevalueofmoneyPriceofallothergoods（easytofallintodeflation）HowToStopaHyperinflationnHowtostopahyperinflationwithoutcausingdeflationwithFisherEffectbeingtrue?

@#@HowToStopaHyperinflationPiM0rTimeEndofinflationNaturalRateofUnemploymentnDefinitionsa）Naturalrateofunemployment:

@#@theaveragerateofunemploymentaroundwhichtheeconomyfluctuatesb）Miseryindex:

@#@thesumofinflationandunemploymentratesFrictionalUnemployment（1streason）nIttakestimetomatchworkersandjobse.g.technologyimprovementnewproductionprocessesornewvarietiesofgoodsdifferentlocationsandsectorsFrictionalUnemployment（1streason）nPublicpolicyimplicationUnemploymentinsuranceReduceuncertaintyaboutincomesothateconomicallyandmentallyBettermatchingHoweverHoweverlesspressuretosearchfornewjobMorelikelytoturndownunattractiveoffersWaitUnemployment（2ndreason）nWagerigidity-thefailureofthewagetoadjustuntilLS=LDW/PLRealWageSDEa）Minimum-wagelawsWaitUnemployment（2ndreason）LRealWageSDEMin.wW/PWaitUnemployment（2ndreason）b）UnionsandcollectivebargainingThewagesofworkersintheunionaredeterminednotbytheeqmofSandDbutbycollectivebargainingbetweenunionleadersandfirmmanagement（wagesishigherthantheeqmlevel）WaitUnemployment（2ndreason）nWagesfornon-unionizedworkersduetounioninotherfirmsunemploymentratenInsiders&@#@outsiders-outsidersbearthecostofhigherwagesWaitUnemployment（2ndreason）c）Efficiencywagesi.Nutritionii.Laborturnoverrateiii.Averagequalityoftheworkforceiv.MoralhazardproblemPatternsofUnemploymentnVariationindemographicgroupsUnemploymentratebydemographicgroups2000U.S.（%）AgeWhitemaleWhitefemaleBlackmaleBlackfemale16-1912.310.426.423.020+2.83.17.06.3PatternsofUnemploymentPatternsofUnemploymentPatternsofUnemployment