信用评级机构[文献翻译]Word文件下载.doc
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信用评级机构[文献翻译]Word文件下载.doc
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WhereShouldWeGo?
LawrenceJ.White*
"
…aninsuredstatesavingsassociation…maynotacquireorretainanycorporatedebtsecuritiesnotofinvestmentgrade."
12CodeofFederalRegulations§
362.11
"
…anyuseroftheinformationcontainedhereinshouldnotrelyonanycreditratingorotheropinioncontainedhereininmakinganyinvestmentdecision."
TheusualdisclaimerthatisprintedatthebottomofStandard&
Poor’screditratings
TheU.S.subprimeresidentialmortgagedebacleof2007-2008,andtheworldfinancialcrisisthathasfollowed,willsurelybeseenasadefiningeventfortheU.S.economy--andformuchoftheworldeconomyaswell--formanydecadesinthefuture.AmongthecentralplayersinthatdebaclewerethethreelargeU.S.-basedcreditratingagencies:
Moody'
s,Standard&
Poor'
s(S&
P),andFitch.
Thesethreeagencies'
initiallyfavorableratingswerecrucialforthesuccessfulsaleofthebondsthatweresecuritizedfromsubprimeresidentialmortgagesandotherdebtobligations.Thesaleofthesebonds,inturn,wereanimportantunderpinningfortheU.S.housingboomof1998-2006--withaself-reinforcingprice-risebubble.Whenhousepricesceasedrisinginmid2006andthenbegantodecline,thedefaultratesonthemortgagesunderlyingthesebondsrosesharply,andthoseinitialratingsprovedtobeexcessivelyoptimistic--especiallyforthebondsthatwerebasedonmortgagesthatwereoriginatedin2005and2006.Themortgagebondscollapsed,bringingdowntheU.S.financialsystemandmanyothercountries’financialsystemsaswell.
TheroleofthemajorratingagencieshasreceivedaconsiderableamountofattentioninCongressionalhearingsandinthemedia.LessattentionhasbeenpaidtothespecificsofthefinancialregulatorystructurethatpropelledthesecompaniestothecenteroftheU.S.bondmarkets–andthattherebyvirtuallyguaranteedthatwhentheydidmakemistakes,thosemistakeswouldhaveseriousconsequencesforthefinancialsector.Butanunderstandingofthatstructureisessentialforanyreasoneddebateaboutthefuturecourseofpublicpolicywithrespecttotheratingagencies.
Thispaperwillbeginbyreviewingtherolethatcreditratingagenciesplayinthebondmarkets.Wethenreviewtherelevanthistoryoftheindustry,includingthecrucialrolethattheregulationofotherfinancialinstitutionshasplayedinpromotingthecentralityofthemajorcreditratingagencieswithrespecttobondinformation.Inthediscussionofthishistory,distinctionsamongtypesoffinancialregulation–especiallybetweentheprudentialregulationoffinancialinstitutions(which,aswewillsee,requiredthemtousethespecificbondcreditworthinessinformationthatwasprovidedbythemajorratingagencies)andtheregulationoftheratingagenciesthemselves–areimportant.
Wenextofferanassessmentoftherolethatregulationplayedinenhancingtheimportanceofthethreemajorratingagenciesandtheirroleinthesubprimedebacle.Wethenconsiderthepossibleprospectiveroutesforpublicpolicywithrespecttothecreditratingindustry.Oneroutethathasbeenwidelydiscussed–andthatisembodiedinlegislationthattheObamaAdministrationproposedinJuly2009–wouldtightentheregulationoftheratingagencies,ineffortstopreventthereoccurrenceofthosedisastrousjudgmentalerrors.Asecondroutewouldreducetherequiredcentralityoftheratingagenciesandtherebyopenupthebondinformationprocessinwaythathasnotbeenpossiblesincethe1930s.
WhyCreditRatingAgencies?
Acentralconcernofanylender--includingthelender/investorsinbonds--iswhetherapotentialoractualborrowerislikelytorepaytheloan.Thisis,ofcourse,astandardproblemofasymmetricinformation:
Theborrowerislikelytoknowmoreaboutitsrepayingproclivitiesthanisthelender.Therearealsostandardsolutionstotheproblem:
Lendersusuallyspendconsiderableamountsoftimeandeffortingatheringinformationaboutthelikelycreditworthinessofprospectiveborrowers(includingtheirhistoryofloanrepaymentsandtheircurrentandprospectivefinancialcapabilities)andalsoingatheringinformationabouttheactionsofborrowersafterloanshavebeenmade.
Thecreditratingagencies(arguably)helppiercethefogofasymmetricinformationbyofferingjudgments--theyprefertheword"
opinions"
--aboutthecreditqualityofbondsthatareissuedbycorporations,governments(includingU.S.stateandlocalgovernments,aswellas"
sovereign"
issuersabroad),and(mostrecently)mortgagesecuritizers.Thesejudgmentscomeintheformof“ratings”,whichareusuallyalettergrade.ThebestknownscaleisthatusedbyS&
Pandsomeotherratingagencies:
AAA,AA,A,BBB,BB,etc.,withplusesandminusesaswell.4Creditratingagenc
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